Of all the early-season form trends established by AFL clubs, the most dramatic and unexpected has been that of Adelaide. Four-and-a-half games ago, the Crows looked as though they could win the 2009 flag; suddenly, they’re playing like a contender for the wooden-spoon.

Winless after four rounds, Neil Craig’s team is cushioned from the bottom of the ladder only by Richmond. If there’s any good news for Adelaide’s increasingly restless fans, it is that the Tigers are so bad the bookmakers have already declared the race for the spoon over. They don’t believe that anyone, this year at least, can be as bad as Richmond.

Perhaps they haven’t been watching Adelaide. The Crows have kicked 31 goals in four games, their average score is 58 points, and their average losing margin is 40. Keep that up and they could certainly give the Tigers a run for their money.

The question is: what’s happened? Craig’s Adelaide has been a model of consistency for five years. The toughest critics have admired the earnestness and unity of coach and team, and their commitment to a playing method which has continued to churn out wins. Suddenly, it has all dried up.

If the Crows under Craig reached a performance zenith, it may well have been in the first half of their semi-final against Collingwood at the MCG last September. Coming off four straight wins in which they averaged an uncharacteristic 21 goals-per-game, the Crows blitzed the Magpies early. Playing for a preliminary final match-up with Geelong, Adelaide’s football was so good that Mark Thompson may have been eyeing his next opponent uneasily.

As it turned out, the Cats’ preliminary final opponent would be Collingwood. The Crows, after kicking six goals in the first quarter, managed only one more before three-quarter time as the game slipped away. A late charge just failed to get them over the line. Even their best hadn’t been good enough.

Perhaps this might give a clue as to what’s happened at Adelaide. The club hasn’t missed the finals in Craig’s five full seasons at the helm but its September results have been disappointing. They’ve won three from nine. The wins have all come at AAMI Stadium and been achieved against lower ranked teams. Four of the defeats have been by 10 points or less. When the heat has really been on, Adelaide, Craig, and their method have failed.

The team’s style of play is heavily labour-intensive. It has required, and been achieved, only with tremendous commitment. Yet when it has really counted, it hasn’t produced results. The Crows have been unable to get across the line. How can those who have been a part of this succession of galling big-game defeats not notice? And if it causes their belief in the club’s playing process to waver, how are they to go on committing themselves to it as assiduously as they have in the past? Couple this with the inevitable diminishing returns of three champions, McLeod, Goodwin, and Edwards, and Adelaide is at the crossroads.

Neil Craig has been a thoroughly impressive and admirable coach. He certainly doesn’t deserve to become a target at the first hint of a major form trough. He is, though, now facing his greatest test. He must produce a Plan B, and convince his players of its potential to do what Plan A hasn’t. Plan B might require patience, something Adelaide fans are notorious for not possessing. The coach has a challenging season ahead.