Three years on, though, the Tomahawk still hasn't cut through. Into his fourth season, he is barely the third banana in Geelong's forward set-up. When he burst onto the scene that day against the Blues, Tom Hawkins was 18 and just out of school at Melbourne Grammar. Last Monday he again played against Carlton and not only didn't he kick a goal, he didn't get a kick.

In 2007, he booted 11 goals in his first five games. This year, from the same number of outings, he has six. He now has three seasons of experience under his belt, including a grand final victory to which he made a significant contribution, yet it's still not quite happening.

The fairytale emergence of 28 year-old James Podsiadly, who kicked seven goals in his first two games, has added height and another option to the Geelong attack. It also causes a potential problem as it gives the Cats three tall forwards. Against Carlton, the team's front half was made look slow and top-heavy by the speedy Blues. Podsiadly kicked badly in front of goal but at least he had some shots. He also pushed up and won possession in midfield.

In total Hawkins has now played 48 games and kicked 65 goals. It's not disastrous but it's not quite the story Cats' fans were imagining would inevitably unfold. A big man who does nothing other than play forward must be more productive or he becomes an unaffordable luxury. Hawkins must either kick more goals or become relief ruckman to Brad Ottens. At present that role is filled by Mark Blake who is only slightly taller than Hawkins but has no pretension to flexibility. Geelong may be forced to decide which one of this pair is the luxury they can no longer afford.

While the 50-game milestone is generally seen as the first marker of football maturity, it can be attained by very good players in quite different ways. At one end of the spectrum, John Coleman kicked 100 goals in his first season aged 20. St Kilda's Brendon Goddard is an example of a player who reached the mark unspectacularly then blossomed. The number one draft pick in 2002, Goddard reached 50 games in 2005. The AFL's Guide to 2006 refers to a stand-out performance late the previous year and states that "much more of the same is required." Clearly, much more has been delivered in the seasons since.

It is time for Hawkins to deliver. The reality for the Cats is that they can no longer indulge in luxuries. They hung on grimly to win last year's flag and are now no less vulnerable than the other contenders in the queue for a tilt at the title. They, and Hawkins, must grasp the nettle.