Written on Thursday, 08 July 2010 20:21
PORT ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD, AAMI Stadium, Friday, 7.40pm (CST)
The story so far: Seven straight losses for Port, while the Pie machine is back on track with two wins, and sitting comfortably in third place.
Why to watch: Apart from the cross-town Crows, there is no team Port likes to beat more. Sadly, the Power is not up to the task at present.
We think: Collingwood travels well and this represents a fine tune-up ahead of a blockbuster against the Saints next week.
Collingwood by 27 points
TAB Sportsbet: Port $5, Collingwood $1.15
GEELONG v HAWTHORN, MCG, Saturday, 2.10pm
The story so far: The Cats retuned to the winning list last week, amassing 500 touches against North last week. Seven straight wins for the Hawks, none better than the defeat of the Bulldogs last Friday.
Why to watch: The best team in the competition against the most in-form. The Cats have won the last three, but by a total of just 18 points. The Hawks know how to beat the Cats, they just don't have the manpower.
We think: Geelong will be at full strength in the midfield and with Mitchell out for the Hawks, the edge at clearances will probably just be enough. But the Hawks look good things at the odds.
Geelong by 6
TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.33, Hawthorn $3.15
WEST COAST v ADELAIDE, Subiaco, Saturday, 1.10pm (WST)
The story so far: They're talking finals in Adelaide, believe it or not. Win seven of the lst eight and anything is possible. The Eagles meanwhile are firming for the spoon by the week. Even the coach admits it might happen after his flat denial a month ago.
Why to watch: You have to think the Eagles will find some touch at some stage, while the Crows need to treat every match as a final. Desperate times.
We think: Because it's at Subi, you'd imagine the Eagles will keep it close. But they really are struggling.
Adelaide by 16
TAB Sportsbet: West Coast $2.65, Adelaide $1.45
BRISBANE v ST KILDA, Gabba, Saturday, 7.10pm
The story so far: The Lions are hopeless, while the Saints keep marching on. They've done superbly without Riewoldt and now he's back.
Why to watch: Riewoldt back for the Saints is the main point of interest here. Will he be the lead-up forward, or will the Saints run him into some form by playing him up the ground?
We think: Fevola's return helps the Lions, but they've been smashed in the midfield all year and he just won't get enough supply.
St Kilda by 21
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $4, St Kilda $1.22
RICHMOND v FREMANTLE, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 7.10pm
The story so far: Brilliant win by the Tigers last week. That's four wins for the season, four more than looked likely earlier this year. Fremantle is two games clear in fourth place, but will be without the star Michael Barlow for the rest of the season.
Why to watch: This would be a huge scalp for the resurgent Tigers, but can they put another drama-filled week (thanks, Benny C) behind them?
We think: The Dockers have been great on the road this year and should just prevail. But Jack Riewoldt will be licking his chops at a Freo backline that is running short of talent and experience.
Fremantle by 12
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $2.50, Fremantle $1.50
SYDNEY v NORTH MELBOURNE, SCG, 1.10pm
The story so far: The Swans have dropped two straight and in danger of dropping out of the eight. The team poised to replace them? North.
Why to watch: An elimination final in July. As Brad Scott said, there is a strong likelihood that the winner will make the finals.
We think: Home ground advantage tips it Sydney's way. But we're not all that convinced.
Sydney by 10
TAB Sportsbet: Sydney $1.40, North Melbourne $2.80
MELBOURNE v ESSENDON, MCG, Sunday, 2.10pm
The story so far: The Bombers have been this week's whipping boy. A 14-goal loss to Adelaide (less than a year after a 16-goal loss) will do that.
Why to watch: Neither side is a finals contender, but the loser could be second bottom if Richmond upsets Fremantle.
We think: Neither side has been impressive of late, but the Demons don't seem to be as bereft of confidence as the Bombers.
Melbourne by 7
TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $1.80, Essendon $1.95
CARLTON v WESTERN BULLDOGS, Etihad Stadium, Sunday, 4.40pm
The story so far: The Bulldogs are two games out of the top four, unacceptable to many who touted them as flag favourites at the start of the year.
Why to watch: The loser can just about forget the double chance come September. The Dogs have lost their last three to the Blues.
We think: Tough game. Perhaps the Bulldogs bat deeper through the midfield and have options to stop Carlton's sneaky small forwards.
Bulldogs by 9
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Mug's Guide to Round 15


Bentley did do this to the smaller country clubs, but he soon realised the mistake on Beaudesert. With approximately 52 or more trainers (average 180 horses worked fast days) the...
Saints are well positioned to knock over the Eagles.
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Red = knob!
I couldn't agree more. You've articulated exactly what football needs!
"In the end, they simply lacked the skills to get away with such a high risk strategy on a regular basis" Yes, but there's another factor at play - killer...
It's interesting that you referred to the two Collingwood/Melbourne matches in 2010. They were both thrillers. Dean Bailey's approach of encouraging his players to run the gauntlet down the middle...