ADELAIDE v GEELONG, AAMI STADIUM, Friday 8.10pm (CST)

The story so far: The Crows will make the finals if they run the table from here, hence the giddy excitement in Adelaide. The Cats found a way to win against the Hawks last week - they weren't brilliant, but they did enough.

Why to watch: McLeod and Mackay return to give the Crows the sort of run that could trouble the Cats. But Adelaide has to block the corridor, the key to the Cats run and carry.

We think: Adelaide has won three on the trot, but this represents a significant step up in class. Can't see the Cats dropping this one.

Geelong by 10

TAB SPORTSBET: Adelaide $3.85, Geelong $1.25

COLLINGWOOD v ST KILDA, MCG, Saturday, 2.10pm

The story so far: Lot of love in the room for the Magpies, who have been in ripping form since the bye, but Travis Cloke couldn't have picked a worse time to act like a goose and get himself suspended. The Saints have been great all year and have their skipper back.

Why to watch: A big one for the Pies. Until they knock over one of the Saints and Cats, they'll remain flat-track bullies to this observer.

We think: Rough chance with Cloke, little chance without him. Collingwood's highest score against the Saints in their last four encounters is 72. Doesn't engender much confidence.

St Kilda by 12

TAB Sportsbet: Colliingwood $2.00, St Kilda $1.75

HAWTHORN v BRISBANE LIONS, Aurora Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm

The story so far: If not for some poor finishing against the Cats, the Hawks would be up to eight straight wins. The Lions looked better last week, but still no cigar. Now 10 losses from 11. Buddy's withdrawal from the team on Friday morning will not help the Hawks' chances.

Why to watch: Brown and Fevola at one end, Roughy at the other. Should be entertaining.

We think: Can't see the Lions generating enough midfield ball to really trouble the Hawks. But Franklin's late withdrawal evens up the contest. Now a danger game for the Hawkers.

Hawthorn by 12

TAB Sportsbet: Hawthorn $1.22, Brisbane $4.00

ESSENDON v WEST COAST, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 7.10pm

The story so far: All eyes have been on Windy Hill, where, to borrow a line from their arch-enemy Hawks, they're not a happy team. Five straight losses will do that. West Coast are stone motherless and will remain there, which is why this is a hugely important game for the Bombers.

Why to watch: Pressure on the Bombers is enormous. How will they handle it?

We think: For all their troubles, the Dons are playing at home. And the Eagles have lost 26 of their last 28 away from Subiaco.

Essendon by 14

TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $1.40, West Coast $2.80

WESTERN BULLDOGS v PORT ADELAIDE, TIO STADIUM, 7.10pm (CST)

The story so far: The Dogs have been a bit spotty all year, but were imperious against the Blues last week. Perhaps they've finally found their mojo. Port has a new coach, Matthew Primus, with seven weeks to prove himself.

Why to watch: Will Primus tinker with the gameplan at all?

We think: Another comfortable win for the Bulldogs. Not sure how much magic Primus can weave.

Western Bulldogs by 22

TAB Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs $1.15, Port Adelaide $5.00

CARLTON v SYDNEY, ETIHAD STADIUM, Sunday, 1.10pm

The story so far: It's only the wretched form of the Bombers that has spared the Blues from the media blowtorch. They were really poor in losing to the Bulldogs by 68 points. The Swans beat the Kangaroos in an important 'eight-point game' thanks in part to some vintage Adam Goodes footy.

Why to watch: Both teams are in a battle with Hawthorn for spots 6-8 on the ladder. Six will mean a home final in week one. Big stakes.

We think: The Blues tend not to play two shockers on the trot. They may have a touch more class.

Carlton by 12

TAB Sportsbet: Carlton $1.55, Sydney $2.35

RICHMOND v NORTH MELBOURNE, MCG, Sunday, 2.10pm

The story so far: With four straight wins, the Tigers are the feel-good story of the season. At this rate of improvement, they'll contend for next flag. North lost an important game to Sydney last week and needs to start winning. Pronto.

Why to watch: You have to love the way the Tigers are going about their footy.

We think: You can't argue with form. The Tigers are playing too well to slip up here.

Richmond by 10

TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $1.72, North Melbourne $2.05

FREMANTLE v MELBOURNE, Subiaco, Sunday, 2.40pm (WST)

The story so far: The Dockers are still fourth, but their grip on a double-chance in the finals is slipping that little bit. Melbourne dominated Essendon last week and should have won by a lot more than 19 points.

Why to watch: Important that the Dockers get back on track to preserve fourth spot. A win to the Demons would be their best for the year.

We think: The Dockers play good footy at Subiaco, while the Demons don't. They haven't won there since 2004.

Fremantle by 26

TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $1.20, Melbourne $4.25