Before the 2010 season began, the observation was made on this website regarding Carlton that "there could be two steps back before even one is made in the right direction." It was a prediction about the Blues' chances this year following the departure of their Coleman Medal winning spearhead, Brendan Fevola. This, it must be said, was no enlightened item of soothsaying. Even Fevola's more trenchant critics could see that his departure, overdue as it was, was likely to hurt the Blues in the short term.

In that pre-season BPL column it was also suggested Brett Ratten would be hurt by Fevola's departure. There's little doubt the coach is bleeding right now. His Blues have managed just two patchy wins and five awful defeats from their last seven outings. From being a top-four aspirant, they are now a chance to miss the finals altogether. Their season is falling apart. Ratten is searching for answers and they don't appear evident. Last Saturday, in frustration, he publicly attacked his men.

The unpalatable reality for Carlton is that for all the draft rewards it has enjoyed in recent years, this team is still glaringly under-manned. It lacks potent and reliable attacking targets, it hasn't solved the decade-long problem of a flimsy defence, and its mid-field lacks the genuine depth required of consistently competitive teams in this era of interchange-driven perpetual motion.

An analysis of the Blues' on-field problems reveals a chicken-and-egg conundrum. Their back half is paper-thin and cries out for the type of team defensive structure adopted by other clubs with the same problem. Hawthorn did this in 2008, St Kilda to still greater effect last year. The difference between Carlton and those teams is that the Hawks had Franklin, Roughead, Rioli, and Williams; St Kilda had Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Milne, and Schneider. Carlton's defence remains weak partly because it doesn't have reliable scorers.

The Hawthorn quartet booted more than 250 goals in the premiership year; St Kilda's big four kicked 206 last year. Eddie Betts, Setanta O'hAilpin, Jeff Garlett, and Jarrad Waite are Carlton's leading goal-kickers this year and they've managed 108 between them. At that rate, they might reach the 140-mark by season's end. Imagine how few they, and Carlton, would be kicking if their team played St Kilda-style defence.

Fevola's presence at Carlton served to paper over the cracks. When he produced, he frequently dug the team out of a hole. Now that he's no longer there, there's no one to do it. It raises the question as to how it came to this. As has been pointed out recently, the Blues have 14 top-20 draft picks on their list. Somehow, such richness of choice hasn't resulted in a well-equipped team. This is, in fact, a list still in need of considerable rebuilding.

The Blues have been the team on the rack this week and such scrutiny often leads to a powerful response. This Friday they face a recent nemesis in Essendon. The Bombers have won their last six against Carlton, averaging 125 points per game. If they can kick that sort of score, it will be more than enough to win.

In the last three rounds, the Blues have two scarcely winnable encounters: with Geelong, and Fremantle in Perth. The other opponent is Richmond. The worst possible scenario from the last month is a frightening one for a club that has recently held, and stated, a high ambition.

The coach must demonstrate that he has the solidity and force of personality to lift the team from its current malaise. If he can't, he will continue to be under pressure. But he shouldn't be alone. Carlton's whole, long-time ethos should be under pressure. Forget Barassi-led, Stewart-led, Pagan-led, Pratt-led, Judd-led recoveries. The day of the quick fix has long passed. The game is now about talent identification, player development, and list management. Results suggest Carlton has continued to fall short in these areas.