Written on Thursday, 05 August 2010 11:58
A friend with kids told me the only predictable thing about two year olds is their unpredictability. I'm starting to think the same thing about the AFL. Last Friday night's win by Essendon over St. Kilda was stunning, particularly since it came just three weeks after many Bombers' supporters were baying for the blood of head coach Matthew Knights.
Now the Bombers have won two in a row, and the media - always looking for a good story - have declared them a possible final eight team.
Meanwhile, Sydney has gone from battling for a spot in the eight, to looking like a top six club to fighting for its finals life again, all in the span of eight weeks.
It's that unpredictability, those mercurial week-to-week performances that get supporters so riled up, yet also makes the run to the finals so exciting.
It got me thinking about which AFL teams can be categorised as "Unpredictable" and which are "Predictable." Interestingly and quite unintentionally, I came up with eight teams on each side of the ledger.
Unpredictable = Essendon
Six losses in a row and plenty of fan unrest before the narrow win over North. Then a Friday night blowout of St.Kilda and all is good in Bomberland. For the moment.
Predictable = Collingwood
Anti-Collingwood types will say yeah, it's predictable that they'll choke in the big one. Whether or not that happens, the Pies have been as consistent as any team in the league this season.
Unpredictable = Sydney
After a horrible loss to Richmond, the red-and-white troops rallied to beat North Melbourne. That was followed by a 39-point win over Carlton, which head coach Paul Roos calls the best win of the year. A week later cane the mind-numbing 73-point loss to Melbourne. Go figure.
Predictable = Geelong
More often than not, the Cats win, and win big. And in a strange twist, they lose big (average margin of losses is about 20 points).
Unpredictable = Adelaide
Began the season with six consecutive losses and the club was in disarray. Then the Crows reeled off four wins in a row - including a huge Friday Night Football victory over Geelong - and people were calling them a Finals certainly. Then they laid an egg in the Showdown and last week got pummeled by Richmond.
Predictable = Hawthorn
Don't say it. I know last week's loss to Port was a disaster. Not only that, it put a real damper on my "Predictable" call. Still, I think it was an aberration, and the consistent Hawks - who had only one loss in their last 10 before last week - will return to form.
Unpredictable = Carlton
Almost the model club for this column. It must be maddening to follow the Blues, who have beaten Geelong and St. Kilda but lost to North Melbourne and Sydney. Last week's 48-point loss to archrival Collingwood didn't help either.
Predictable = St. Kilda
A tough call, but I take my cues from the St. Kilda fans I know. Most of them seem quite unsurprised at the results of the past four weeks, starting with an ugly win over Brisbane and finishing with last Friday night's shellacking. Saints are predictable because if they can't impose their style and structure on the game, they can't win.
Unpredictable = North Melbourne
This club is about as consistent as it is cashed-up. From Round Nine to Round 15, the Roos lost two in a row, then won three in a row, then lost two in a row. More unpredictably, they've failed in gut-check games (Sydney, Essendon) but did manage to end the red-hot run of Richmond by a 50-point margin.
Predictable = Brisbane
Predictable alright. Predictably bad, predictably underachieving, predictably defensive about recruiting efforts. And even the pleas for fans and media to lay off Fev were predictable.
Unpredictable = Richmond
Seemed quite predictable early on with nine consecutive losses out of the box. Then went on a tear, winning four in a row and five of six before folding their tents against North Melbourne.
Predictable = Western Bulldogs
Throw out the early concern over Barry Hall and the recent drama surrounding Jason Akermanis. The Dogs have been solid for most of the year and they'll normally give you a solid effort, win or lose.
Unpredictable = Melbourne
The Demons are rebuilding, both on the field and off, and that usually means unpredictability. Melbourne played Collingwood tough, drawing with the Pies and losing by a point. They also lost to Adelaide by 44. In another year or two, they should be quite predictable. And good.
Predictable = West Coast
After last Sunday's effort in the Derby against Freo, you have to call the Eagles' Round 16 win over Essendon lucky. It's West Coast's only win in the past 10 games.
Unpredictable = Port Adelaide
Starting with the Mark Williams episode, and moving through a Showdown win over Adelaide and a big upset of Hawthorn, the Power are the definition of unpredictability.
Predictable = Fremantle
Some may think the Dockers are the epitome of unpredictability. I disagree. Despite residing in the top four for much of the season, Freo is still listless on the road, still dominant over West Coast and still a certainty to stuff something up in the run home.
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