FREMANTLE v CARLTON, SUBIACO, FRIDAY, 6.40PM (WST)

The story so far: The Dockers left half their side (the better half) in Perth last week rather than travel to Launceston, to rest up for this one. The Blues were beaten, but not disgraced last week by Geelong and are as ready for this one as they could be.

Why to watch: The winner gets a home final to kick-start a finals campaign in which they'll need to win four finals to win the flag.

We think: It will be oh-so-Fremantle like for the Dockers to blow their golden chance for a home final. But they generally play well and the 10 inclusions for this one, headlined by Pavlich and Sandilands, are massive.

Fremantle by 9

TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $1.60, Carlton $2.30

GEELONG v WEST COAST, Skilled Stadium, Saturday, 1pm

The story so far: The Cats have been in ripping form the last two weeks and the ins and pretty good this week. West Coast has won its first wooden spoon, just four years after winning a flag.

Why to watch: A few party tricks from the Cats before the business end of the season.

We think: Cats by a mile.

Geelong by 70

TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.01, West Coast $13

HAWTHORN v COLLINGWOOD, MCG, Saturday, 2.10pm

The story so far: The Pies have claimed the minor premiership for the first time since 1977, while the Hawks have done really well to make the finals after their 1-6 start.

Why to watch: Buddy Franklin loves playing Collingwood. And the Pies will be without their best defender, Simon Prestigiacomo. September comes a week early to the MCG.

We think: The Pies have been so good all year. Last week's squeaker over the Crows was the hiccup they probably needed to have.

Collingwood by 10

TAB Sportsbet: Hawthorn $2.50, Collingwood $1.50

ADELAIDE v ST KILDA, AAMI Stadium, 3.40pm (CST)

The story so far: Tremendous effort by the Saints to stay in the top four without Nick Riewoldt and now he's back, they're playing footy at close to the same level as last year. Adelaide's best players will be parading around AAMI Stadium on the back of a ute rather than take on the Saints.

Why to watch: It's the first match of 2011 for the Crows, with their young players finally stepping away from the imposing shadow of Goodwin, Edwards, McLeod and Burton.

We think: Too close to the finals for the Saints to drop this one, even though they can't be budged from a finals opening clash against Collingwood.

St Kilda by 17

TAB Sportsbet: Adelaide $2.65, St Kilda $1.45

WESTERN BULLDOGS v ESSENDON, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 7.10pm

The story so far: The season has gone pear-shaped for the Bulldogs, while for the Bombers it has been a rancid season.

Why to watch: Can the Bulldogs enter the season with a bit of a confidence boost? Another belting for the Dons will probably mark the end for Matthew Knights.

We think: The Dogs are shaky, but surely they won't drop this one.

Bulldogs by 15

TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $4.25, Western Bulldogs 1.20

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans, Gabba, Saturday, 7.10pm

The story so far: The Lions have ended the season in better touch. They started brilliantly with four straight wins, but the mid-part was awful. The Swans have been outstanding when you consider their injuries. The flag year aside, not sure Paul Roos has coached better.

Why to watch: Likely to be the last time we see Jared Brennan and Michael Rischitelli in Brisbane colours.

We think: No chance for the Lions with Jonathan Brown not playing.

Sydney by 21

TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $3.05, Sydney $1.35

Richmond v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, Sunday 2.10pm

The story so far: Both teams have been OK this year. Sadly for Port, it only came good once Mark Williams finished up as coach. The future for the Tigers appears bright and Damien Hardwick has makings of an outstanding coach.

Why to watch: Ben Cousins last game. How fit is he and what can he produce?

We think: The Tigers have one good game left in the tank.

Richmond by 23

TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $1.60, Port Adelaide $2.25

Melbourne v North Melbourne, MCG, Sunday, 4.40pm

The story so far: Two teams that will expect to be playing finals next year. Quality youngsters abound on both playing lists.

Why to watch: Last game for warriors James McDonald and Corey Jones. McDonald was disappointed to be asked to finish up and will want to go out in style.

We think: The Kangas have played some good footy towards the end of the season and might surprise here.

North by 17 points

TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $2, North Melbourne $1.75