GEELONG v ST KILDA, MCG, FRIDAY, 7.40PM

The story so far: The Cats finished the home and away season in second place with 17 wins. Not quite the dominating force of the previous three seasons, but as witnessed by their 101-point thrashing of the Western Bulldogs a fortnight ago, no team plays better footy when all their big guns are firing. Credit, too, to the Saints for holding their season together for the 11 weeks Nick Riewoldt was out of the side. Despite the portents of doom and gloom, the Saints never dropped out of the top four. The only concern is their meagre five-goal return in Adelaide last week. Yet this shapes as the latest instalment in the series of classics these two teams have produced over the past couple of years. In fact, with a wet week predicted in Melbourne, the match could pan out something like the grand final – a tight slog determined by a kick or two. In their past 10 matches, the record stands at Geelong 6, St Kilda 4. But the Saints won their most recent encounter, in Round 13, handsomely - keeping the Cats goalless in the second half. The six-day break affects both teams, and it's a little sad that they are scheduled first of the four finals just because because of the demands of TV. Paul Chapman, for example, is one who would have benefited from an extra day off.

The big issue: He’s baaaaack. Steven Baker, the pesky (and punchy) Saints defender who was suspended for nine weeks in round 13 for whacking Geelong’s Steve Johnson, makes his return to football this weekend. And, as fate would have it, he’s making his comeback against none other than Stevie J on Friday night. Short odds on Ross Lyon placing the Pesky One on to Johnson at the opening bounce - and we'll see then whether the sparks fly again. Both coaches have turned the screws on to the umpires ahead of that expected match-up. It all makes for great theatre.

Why to watch: Because these two teams inevitably produce memorable contests, it's the grand final rematch and it shapes as easily the best match-up in week one of the finals.

We think: The odds on St Kilda are ridiculously generous. Given that so little has separated these two teams over the past couple of years, $3.25 seems extremely long for the Saints. And remember they won the last match by 24 points. Sure, Geelong are strengthened by the inclusion of Paul Chapman, James Kelly, Joel Corey, Brad Ottens and Tom Hawkins to that team which lost in round 13. But a certain N Riewoldt is back for the Saints, along with Jason Gram. Ignore the dead-rubber loss in Adelaide in round 22 - the Saints' recent form is fine apart from that. St Kilda plays a brand of football, week in, week out, that is designed to shut down free-flowing teams like Geelong, especially in these types of matches. Their pressure can crack the silky Cats, and their job will be made that much easier if the weather is lousy.

Happell: St Kilda by 12
Browne: Geelong by 17
Lane: St Kilda by 6

TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.33, St Kilda $3.25

FREMANTLE v HAWTHORN, SUBIACO, SATURDAY, 1.20PM

The story so far: Fremantle copped the blunderbuss treatment from the critics (and BPL) after resting half its side against the Hawks in Launceston a fortnight ago when they duly received a flogging. But Mark Harvey’s high-risk strategy might indeed pay off in silver dollars. For they’ve scored the home final they were chasing, and meet – guess who? – yep, the Hawks again, this time on a very much more level footing. Aaron Sandilands is back, for example, and the Hawks will have trouble countering him, as is captain Matthew Pavlich and David Mundy. The visitors, meanwhile, welcome back Luke Hodge from injury, are nearly at full strength, know they can mix it with the competition’s best on their day, and loom as the most dangerous floaters in the finals since Jaws. The Travis Tuck issue this week, though, must have been some kind of distraction.

The Big Issue: How mentally scarred, or otherwise, will Freo be after the 116-point hammering they received two weeks ago? If they can manage to knock over the Hawks, the Dockers will be the proud owners of just about the most dramatic turnaround in football, to the tune of 20 goals in the space of a fortnight.

Why to Watch: Franklin and Rioli near the Hawthorn goals; Pavlich up the other end; and possibly McPhee v Hodge somewhere in the middle. And also how the young Dockers stand up to the intense pressure in the early exchanges. The Hawks will be sure to test them out with the 'unsociable' stuff.

We think: The Dockers will find that form reversal too big a mountain to climb. Yes, the Hawks can be flaky – and turn in more shockers than any other team with premiership aspirations - but when they get it together, they can beat anyone. Fremantle will miss the injured Hayden Ballantyne (33 goals this year) up forward. Their inexperience in finals is also a worry – with a host of their players including key midfielders Stephen Hill, Anthony Morabito, Nat Fyfe and Nick Suban playing their first AFL final - although the Subiaco crowd will help counter that. Hawthorn have more September experience, too much firepower up forward and should advance to week two.

Happell: Hawthorn by 29
Browne: Hawthorn by 2
Lane: Hawthorn by 13

TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $2.15, Hawthorn $1.68

COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS, MCG, Saturday, 7.20pm

The story so far: Collingwood is in possession of its first minor premiership since 1977, thanks to a season of no-frills, hard-running and tight defensive football. The Pies lost just four and a half games this year, although slightly worrying is that they've been off the boil in the last fortnight with a narrow win over Adelaide and a three-point loss to Hawthorn after leading by more than three goals in the final term. The wheels have fallen off the Bulldogs, with season-ending injuries to its best midfielder, Adam Cooney and versatile defender Dale Morris. Skipper Brad Johnson and Ryan Griffen are 50-50 chances to play on Saturday night. The Dogs did enough earlier in the season to earn the double chance, but are considered good things to go out in straight sets given their fading form and long injury list.

The Big Issue: Collingwood's goalkicking. Dayne Beams missed a gettable shot from 35 metres out with less than a minute to go that would have won the game for the Pies against Hawthorn, while the week before against Adelaide, the Pies ended with a less-than-flattering 6.18 scoreline. You would think that as $1.25 favourites - very short for a final - Collingwood's inaccuracy won't be a problem here, but later in the finals against Geelong or St Kilda it will be a different story.

Why to Watch: Because it's a final and a big stage. If the Pies get on a roll and do some serious damage to the Bulldogs, the hype will grow and grow. Insufferable? Probably, but good for football all the same.

We think: Hard to see how the Bulldogs can win this. They're missing too many key parts, with Cooney out and Griffen doubtful. They'll miss Johnson's leadership should he fail to come up and Morris is the organiser down back. Collingwood hasn't been in the greatest touch, but its defensive pressure has been too much for the Bulldogs twice already this season. They'll make it the hat-trick on Saturday night and then get to put their feet up for a week.

Happell: Collingwood by 17
Browne: Collingwood by 31
Lane: Collingwood by 42

TAB Sportsbet: Collingwood $1.25, Western Bulldogs $3.85

SYDNEY v CARLTON, ANZ Stadium, Sunday, 2.10pm

The story so far: Paul Roos has coached brilliantly in his last season in charge of the Swans, leading them to fifth place on the ladder. Clever trading and drafting freshened the Sydney list, and Roos has managed to hold things together despite missing key defenders, forwards and ruckmen for most of the season. The Blues have made the finals for the second straight year, as they put dim, dark days of the post-salary cap breaches behind them. Sadly for many of their fans, they play interstate for the second straight year, so the strong incentive for the Blues is to get a win here.

The Big Issue: The winner here is almost certain to run into the hobbled Western Bulldogs in the second week of the finals. The Dogs have the whiff of death about them given their loss in form and major injuries, so the winner on Sunday has major claims on a preliminary final appearance. This is just the third day game the Swans have played at ANZ Stadium, so their home ground advantage is not as pronounced as it might be at the SCG. They've lost their last five games at Homebush which again explains why they would have preferred to have played at the SCG.

Why to watch: The Swans are far more entertaining than a few years back. Less contested footy, fewer stoppages and much more flair, perhaps a sign of how they will play under John Longmire from next season. Carlton also boasts the excitement machines - small forwards Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran - and each can be a match winner on his day.

We think: The Swans closed out the season with four straight wins - Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle among them - and are the form team of the competition. They're blunted a bit at ANZ Stadium, but they have a better midfield. The only rider is All Australian candidate ruckman Shane Mumford. If he can't overcome a medial ligament strain, the Blues might break even in the ruck and therefore the clearances. But the Swans have been playing too well.

Happell: Sydney by 9
Browne: Sydney by 19
Lane: Sydney by 31

TAB Sportsbet: Sydney $1.45, Carlton $2.70