Written on Thursday, 09 September 2010 09:25
GEELONG v FREMANTLE, MCG, Friday, 7.40pm
STORYLINE: The Cats thought they'd snatched the qualifying final against St Kilda at the death last Friday - until umpire Stevic blew his whistle and denied Cameron Ling the match-winner. The Saints march on to the prelim; the Catters now need need to win three straight games to win the flag. The contentious finale brought an uncharacteristically sharp reaction from coach Mark Thompson because he, as much as anyone, realised the magnitude of the task facing his team. So we can expect a more spirited performance from the premiers this time around - with Andrew Mackie, Steve Johnson, Josh Hunt et al not wandering around aimlessly in the first half like they did last week. The Dockers, meanwhile, ran the Hawks off their feet last week in impressive fashion and will bring a young, but precociously talented squad to Melbourne to the MCG to face them.
TALKING POINTS: Cats coach Mark Thompson named names after the loss to St Kilda. How will his side respond? And will JPod be rushed back in after suspension to replace either Blake or Hawkins? Fremantle will grace the MCG for the first time this season. Some of their younger players have not even set foot on the great ground. They've lost their last six at the home of football and haven't sung the song there since beating Melbourne in round 4, 2007. The state of Aaron Sandilands knee could be a factor.
WHY TO WATCH: It's the hard old heads of the Cats against the youthful exuberance of the Dockers. And if it's a dry night, the Dockers' pace - from Morabito, Hill and co - could cause the premiers some problems in the second half. And now that we're at the sudden-death stage of the season, we could be watching Gary Ablett in the blue and white hoops for the very last time. Now that's a sobering thought, and one to focus the Cats' minds. He might have Adam McPhee for company, the former Bomber becoming Freo's chief stopper.
WE THINK: All signs point to a comfortable Geelong win. As poor as they were last week in the first half, they did come back from 33 points down to nearly win against St Kilda and only come poor conversion cost them in the end. They'll be too powerful through the midfield, and the old heads among the side will be up and about from the start. If the Cats hit the contest hard in the first 15 minutes, they'll be on their way. Having said that, though, we do tend to underestimate Fremantle in Melbourne - and several of their players are much better than we give them credit for.
THE NEXT STEP: The winners to meet Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night. If it's Geelong, watch the sparks fly then, in a possible reprise of their memorable prelim final of 2007.
TIPS:
Ashley Browne Geelong 41
Tim Lane Geelong 45
Gerard Whateley Geelong 60
Wayne Carey Geelong 39
Charles Happell Geelong 9
WESTERN BULLDOGS v SYDNEY, MCG, Saturday, 7.20pm
STORYLINE: Few finalists are unloved as the Western Bulldogs, thrashed by 62 points by the rampant Pies last week and now with Shaun Higgins joining Adam Cooney and Dale Morris on the 'gone for the season' list. Rodney Eade's men are in the midst of a messy run of form. They've won just once in the past five weeks. Ominously, one of those recent defeats was to the Swans, admittedly at the SCG. Captain Brad Johnson, under fire for his poor game last week, announced his retirement during the week, only adding to the Dogs' turbulent week. The Swans led, trailed, led again and then held off the Blues in a gripping elimination final in Sydney on Sunday. That's five straight wins in Paul Roos' last hurrah as coach. So the contrast in form between these two teams over the past five weeks could hardly be more marked.
TALKING POINTS: There will be plenty of tears at the final siren as one of Brad Johnson or Brett Kirk walks off the ground for the last time and into retirement. The Dogs' lack of confidence is also an issue. Their kicking efficiency last week was terrible - 48.5 per cent of their passes found their target against Collingwood. That figure needs to be up to 70% or more to give their smaller forwards a chance. Another problem, historically a strength, is their conversion rate inside their forward 50. That was a dismal 15 per cent last week. So plenty for the Dogs to chew on.
WHY TO WATCH: It's been a while since a top four side has been eliminated from the finals in straight sets, but that's what awaits the Dogs if they lose. The Swans have been an entertaining side to watch in recent weeks and they'll relish the big stage at the MCG.
WE THINK: Sydney is playing too well. They're fit and in-form, while the Dogs are sore and tired. The likely return of Daniel Bradshaw and Ben McGlynn adds further bite abd scoring power to a side that has had little trouble finding the goals in recent weeks.
THE NEXT STEP: The winners will be back at the MCG seven days later to tackle St Kilda for a place in the grand final. The losers head off to their Mad Monday celebrations, their season finished, dream over and some careers at an end.
TIPS:
Ashley Browne Sydney 17
Tim Lane Sydney 20
Gerard Whateley Western Bulldogs 8
Wayne Carey Sydney 10
Charles Happell Western Bulldogs 11
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