If Geelong is going to trouble Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night - in what, early hype aside, shapes as a modern epic - then its mercurial half-forward Steve Johnson will have to shed his growing reputation as a flat-track bully and make a stand.

Johnson's contributions against the competition's elite in the past couple of seasons - in matches that have been evenly contested or that Geelong has lost - have been worryingly meagre. And against the teams that pose the greatest threat to the Cats this season, Collingwood and St Kilda, Johnson has been little more than a passenger.

An analysis of his performances over 2009 and 2010 reveals that in the six matches Geelong has lost in that time - plus the tightly fought Grand Final - Johnson kicked eight goals (at an average of 1.1 per game) and had an average of 13 possessions.

Yet his eight best games this season have come when the Cats won by an average of 81 points. Then, he's averaged 4.6 goals and 22 possessions per match. Three of those games were played at Skilled Stadium; seven were against teams that finished out of the top four.

So the stats say this: Stevie J can be relied on for a big haul against the competition's strugglers - but against the elite, he is too often shut down. They also suggest his reputation as a matchwinner hasn't been forged on the biggest stage, against the best opponents.

Sure, you might say, of course he's going to struggle when the team struggles - he won't be the only one in that category - and one of the reasons Geelong wins by big margins is his performances at half-forward, in which he not just kicks plenty of goals but provides many others for teammates.

That's true to an extent. But the disparity between his best and worst - against the worst and best sides - is much larger than the Geelong coaching staff would like it to be.

Here are his best eight performances of the 2010 season, in terms of disposals and goals:

v Fremantle, Semi-Final, MCG, Geelong won by 69 pts: 28 disposals and 3 goals
v W Bulldogs, Rd 20, Etihad, Geelong won by 101 pts: 21 disposals and 5 goals
v Sydney, Rd 18, ANZ, Geelong won by 53 pts: 25 disposals and 6 goals
v Essendon, Rd 12, Etihad, Geelong won by 71 pts: 18 disposals and 4 goals
v Brisbane, Rd 8, Gabba, Geelong won by 81 pts: 23 disposals and 6 goals
v Sydney, Rd 7, Skilled, Geelong by 67 pts: 19 disposals and 2 goals
v Richmond, Rd 6, Skilled, Geelong by 108 pts: 26 disposals and 5 goals
v Port Adelaide, Rd 4, Skilled, Geelong by 95 pts: 16 disposals and 6 goals

And here are his performances in the last six games Geelong has lost, plus last year's Grand Final against St Kilda.

v St Kilda, 2010 QF, 10 disposals and 2 goals (St Kilda by 4)
v Collingwood, Rd 19, 17 disposals, 2 goals (Collingwood by 22)
v St Kilda, Rd 13, 14 disposals, 1 goal (St Kilda by 24)
v Carlton, Rd 5, 12 disposals, 1 goal (Carlton by 36)
v Fremantle, Rd 3, 16 disposals, 2 goals (Fremantle by 7)
v St Kilda, 2009 GF, 9 disposals, 0 goals (Geel by 12 pts)
v Carlton, Rd 19, 13 disposals, 0 goals (Carl by 35)

Notice the theme developing here?

We all know Johnson can play. We know he can balance the ball on his nose, pirouette and then volley the ball through from the boundary line. We know he's kicked 62 goals and set up another 25 for teammates, making him the league's joint most prolific (with Barry Hall) goal 'producer'. And we know his pigeon-toed waddle diguises a rare talent - one that drew Wayne Carey on this website earlier in the year to say that Johnson was one of his favourite players and one of the few whom he'd happily pay to watch.

What we don't know is whether he can do any of that against Collingwood, at the MCG, in front of 90,000 people on preliminary final night.