Collingwood's attempt to win its second flag in 52 years will depend on how well its via-the-Cape game plan holds up to finals pressure at the MCG.

That's the opinion of one former premiership coach who points to the Magpies' recent record at the 'G' in September - a less-than-stellar three wins from eight starts since 2003 - as evidence that their method of going wide and attacking via the wings and flanks does not always hold up to the high-intensity fever pitch of finals.

Here's the theory: the Pies longer, indirect route to goal takes more time, involves more possessions, and hence has more chance of coming unstuck. If a player's got a split-second in big home-and-away games to size up a situation and get ball to boot, that becomes a nano-second in the hurly-burly of finals football. The margin for error shrinks to miniscule.

Also, no-one knows the MCG better than Collingwood. The Pies play there 14 or so times per season. That's a distinct advantage against interstate teams who might play there twice a year if they're lucky and zero times (like Fremantle this year) if they're unlucky. Yet St Kilda and Geelong know the joint pretty well, too, and don't get daunted playing finals there in front of big crowds - as some interstate clubs might (viz. the Dockers this year) - and those two clubs have been responsible for the Collingwood's last four defeats in MCG finals.

That's the general gist of the theory anyway.

Collingwood's eight MCG finals since 2003 have netted the following results:

2010
QF Collingwood d W Bulldogs by 62 points
2009
QF St Kilda d Collingwood 27 points
SF Collingwood d Adelaide by 5 pts
PF Geelong d Collingwood by 73 pts
2008
SF: St Kilda d Collingwood by 34 pts
2007
EF Collingwood d Sydney by 38 pts
PF Geelong d Collingwood by 5 pts
2006
EF Western Bulldogs d Collingwood by 41 pts

And, if we are being really unkind and negative, that win a fortnight ago over the Bullies came after the Dogs had been muzzled by injury. And the win over Adelaide last year came after the Crows had it all over them in the first half, and Jack Anthony was awarded a dubious free kick in the dying moments, from which he kicked the match-winner.

When the Magpies reached the grand final in 2003, who did they beat to get there? Brisbane at the MCG in the qualifying final, then Port Adelaide at the MCG in the preliminary.

When they reached the grand final in 2002, who did they beat to get there? Port Adelaide at Football Park in the qualifying final, then Adelaide at the MCG in the preliminary.

In 1994, they were beaten by two points in an elimination final at the WACA by West Coast. In 1992, they lost an elimination final to St Kilda at Waverley Park by eight points.

No, until this year, the last time Collingwood beat a Victorian team was that most famous final Saturday in September, 1990, when they consigned Essendon to their most ignominious defeat.

Sure, the Leyland Brothers game plan has served the Pies well in many home-and-away seasons during coach Mick Malthouse's tenure since 2000 - often brilliantly so - but perhaps there is something to the theory that it can come unstuck when the ball-carrier is not allowed the time and space he needs.

(The circuitous build-up - then centering of the ball once the ball-carrier reaches the 50-metre arc - has also been throw up as a reason for the club's poor conversion rate in front of goal: that Travis Cloke and other forwards are often kicking from more acute angles than forwards from other clubs. But that's another matter.)

Anyway, the former premiership coach, who did not want to be named, hastened to add that he picked Collingwood to pick Geelong on Friday night - in defiance of his theory - but tipped St Kilda to win the following Saturday.

We'll see over the next two weeks - when the Pies' game plan is put to the sternest test - whether his theory holds any water, or is as leaky as the most porous wooden-spooner's defence.