COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG, MCG, Friday 7.40pm

The Story So Far: This represents Collingwood's best opportunity to win the flag in 20 years. Rested, injury-free and playing their 10th straight game at the MCG, everything is in place for the Magpies. Geelong skated to a breezy 69-point win over Fremantle last week in as soft a finals win as you could possibly hope for. So now we get the match-up we all thought - and hoped - would be the grand final - but a week early.

The Big Issue: Two contrasting styles - Collingwood's efficient boundary hugging gameplan versus Geelong's run and carry through the corridor. Neither side is going to radically alter what they do this late in the season. Who can execute better?

Why to Watch: Preliminary finals are tough, tight and tense - much more enjoyable for neutrals than the fans of either side. So much has gone right for Collingwood that it would be a crushing blow should they stumble in September yet again. Only once in four years have the Cats lost when they absolutely had to win - the 2008 grand final and their record in big games is outstanding. A loss would mean just two flags for four years of dominating the competition. How will the Cats handle that?

We Think: Hate tipping against Geelong in such a big game. But looking at their season, their best footy has come in fits and spurts - a quarter here, 15 minutes there. The Pies have been consistently better all season and their only stumble in the second half of the year was against Hawthorn and, with the wisdom of hindsight, they had their minds firmly on the week ahead. We worry a bit about Collingwood's conversion, a by-product of a gameplan based around hugging the boundary. If Geelong's midfield stars such as Gary Ablett, Jim Bartel, Joel Selwood and James Kelly get going then the Cats will be hard to stop, but Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury are handy going the other way. And Luke Ball was brought especially from St Kilda for occasions like this. Come 10pm Friday the lid will be off and the Magpies will be in the grand final.

Ashley Browne: Collingwood by 9
Wayne Carey: Geelong by 18
Tim Lane: Collingwood by 20
Charles Happell: Geelong by 11
James Dunn: Geelong by 17
Jon Pierik: Collingwood by 9

TAB SPORTSBET: Collingwood $1.80, Geelong $2.00

ST KILDA v WESTERN BULLDOGS, MCG, Saturday 7.45pm

The Story So Far: The biggest story surrounding St Kilda this week hasn't been about the preliminary final but instead the return to the club next year of favourite son Robert Harvey as an assistant coach after two years at Carlton. The Bulldogs won through to the preliminary final after a fighting five-point win over Sydney, to set up a re-match of last year's preliminary final. Given the patched-up nature of his side, last week might have been one of Rodney Eade's best-ever coaching performances.

The Big Issue: Who stops Nick Riewoldt? Worryingly for the Bullies, key defenders Brian Lake and Tom Williams both looked proppy towards the end last week and if they're battling again on Saturday night, how do they cope with a fresh and fit Nick Riewoldt. We'll know early. Riewoldt pushes hard up the ground early in an attempt to tire his opponent. Later on he gets back and takes big marks over them.

Why to Watch: A loss by the Bulldogs and this will be the last time Brad Johnson takes to the field. He has been a star and one of the three greatest Bulldogs ever. Does he have a big game left in his arsenal?

We Think: St Kilda has won the last four against the Bulldogs and in the last three encounters, the Bulldogs haven't even mustered a double-figure tally of goals. Dale Morris returns to stiffen the backline, but without playmakers Adam Cooney and Shaun Higgins, the Bulldogs lack the class and poise to work their way through the punishing St Kilda defensive zone. Back-to-back grand final appearances coming up for the Saints and if it is against Collingwood, Barry Breen to be the most interviewed man in Australia.

Ashley Browne: St Kilda by 26
Wayne Carey: St Kilda by 36
Tim Lane: St Kilda by 20
Charles Happell: St Kilda by 40
James Dunn: Bulldogs by 8
Jon Pierik: St Kilda by 15

TAB SPORTSBET: St Kilda $1.22, Western Bulldogs $4.15