(Denis Pagan coached North Melbourne to the 1996 and 1999 AFL premierships.)

Because they'll still be feeling the hurt of last year's grand final loss, and also because they've been there on the big day and understand what's required, I'm tipping St Kilda to win the Grand Final on Saturday. I once heard someone say: the stench of failure always burns deeper than the sweet smell of success. And I think that's true.

There are other reasons I fancy St Kilda's chances: I think they are more experienced at playing the brand of football that's required to win on Grand Final day. The match won't be a thing of beauty and there won't be a lot of goals kicked. That means there will be massive emphasis on defence, intensity and supporting your teammate - and no-one plays that game better than St Kilda. (Even if Collingwood do it well, they haven't had as much practice at it as the Saints.)

I'd also be a little concerned if I was a Pies fan that their team has had two fairly easy wins in the finals series, totalling over 100 points. It might sound strange, but I'd have liked a more solid hitout in one of those games.

And the final reason is the Pies' relative inexperience. We know half-a-dozen of them have not yet played 50 games, and the Grand Final is a very different beast to a Preliminary Final. All I know from my experience is that it's a completely different tempo.

The build-up to a GF can be a trap for young players. And by that I mean it can play on their minds. They can start playing the game over and over in their heads. And because these young men play for Collingwood, the biggest club of all, they will experience massive amounts of hype, adulation, exposure, glamour and media interest. It's a lot of for inexperienced players to take in, even if they play for one of the smaller clubs.

But in listing those reasons, I'd be silly to write off the Magpies' chances completely. Of course they're in with a shout. They've had a fantastic season, are well coached and boast a senior playing group that must be respected for what they've achieved.

It's to Mick Malthouse's credit that he's been able to transition Macaffer, Blair, Wellingham (50 games last Friday), Brown, Reid, Dawes and Sidebottom into the team so smoothly and have them play such important roles.

Their style is very similar to St Kilda's but their midfield is superior. No-one's been able to shut down all their guns - and Collingwood's got eight or 10 very good players, led by Dane Swan, who rotate through the middle. The truth is St Kilda has not got as many.

It'll be very congested around the stop-play situations. Whoever wins the stoppages - and creates that fast break - gets an immediate advantage. St Kilda will be trying to get the ball into the hands of Montagna and Dal Santo; Collingwood will try to free Thomas, Didak and Pendlebury.

The side that gains that fast break will look to its go-to men up forward: St Kilda to Riewoldt and Koschitzke; Collingwood to Cloke and Dawes.

Both sides will want to outnumber the opposition back of centre. It's going to be fascinating watching Collingwood try to free up Maxwell or O'Brien in defence; St Kilda will be attempting the same with Fisher and Gilbert. If either side's forwards play too high, it'll nearly be football suicide. That will enable the respective defences to run in waves and use a free player.

If I was Ross Lyon, I would have Steve Baker in the side - he's popular with his teammates and, even off the bench, he's wonderful insurance if Didak, Thomas and Davis (if he plays) break loose.

The Grand Final will be about NOT giving the other team what they want.

St Kilda likes to free up Fisher, Blake and Gilbert across half-back. Those three were in the top 5 mark takers in the home-and-away season, with Gilbert leading the way on 179. That shows how the Saints are very, very patient with their build-up, chipping it around and waiting for the right target to present itself. Malthouse will be on to that and trying to deny them time and space.

Similarly, Collingwood is very good at freeing up Maxwell and O'Brien in defence. And quite honestly, I found it amazing against the Western Bulldogs and then Geelong how those two were allowed to run their own race across half-back. Several of the Pies' goals were scored after one of Maxwell or O'Brien was able to get free and quickly rebound the ball forward.

St Kilda cannot allow this to happen. One thing the coaching staff can do is play their forwards very deep - within 25 metres of goal - and that will help make those two Pie defenders more accountable. Also, the Saints' forwards have to have a strong defensive mindset.

I think it'll be a very close game; there won't be more than a couple of kicks in it.

But the Saints' experience - and the desire to rid themselves of that bitter taste of defeat - will be the extra spur they need to get over the line.