Written on Thursday, 23 September 2010 22:41
COLLINGWOOD v ST KILDA, MCG, Saturday, 2.30pm
STORYLINES: Where to start? Collingwood's Luke Ball versus his old club is an obvious one, as are the premiership droughts. Collingwood's is 20 years, while St Kilda's is a whopping 44 years. Nobody under 50 can say they really remember the last time the Saints won a flag.
WHY TO WATCH: Biggest game of the year, of course and based on form, this year's grand final pits the two best and most deserving teams of the year. There really isn't a whole lot else to do but to watch this game.
TALKING POINTS: Rarely has Thursday night team selection before the Grand Final thrown up so much intrigue. Collingwood crushed Geelong last week yet felt the need to make two changes. Simon Prestigiacomo is back for his first match in seven weeks and you would think solely to stand Nick Riewoldt against who he has a good record. In round 16 he kept the Saints champ to just one goal, but the roles are reversed this time. Now it is is 'Presti' who is returning from injury, while Riewoldt has been in really good touch the last month. His eight touches, three marks and two goals in the third quarter last week helped turn last week's preliminary final against the Bulldogs.
Leon Davis is also back for the Pies after missing last eek with hamstring soreness, but the other selection surprise was at St Kilda, where Steven Baker returns after missing the last 12 weeks through a combination of suspension (nine weeks) and a broken foot that he reportedly suffered by dropping a bowling ball on his foot. It's a massive call, one that was dismissed by Leigh Matthews on Thursday evening as potentially disastrous for the Saints. The Saints dropped ruckman Ben McEvoy for Baker so like Collingwood, will be entering the grand final with just one recognised ruckman.
WE THINK: Both teams set up in a similar way - applying relentless pressure in the backline and the midfield and then moving quickly once they get the ball.
The midfield battles will play a huge role and the Pies enter the flag decider with two stars in brilliant form - Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury. The pair polled 45 Brownlow votes between them the other night and we wonder whether Mick Malthouse might use Swan's failure to win - after entering the count as the shortest-priced favourite in 11 years - as a motivator.
St Kilda has Lenny Hayes, who should have earned All Australian selection but there is a question mark over Nick Dal Santo who appeared to hurt his back last week.
The pick here is Collingwood. The Pies looked so good in defeating the Saints by eight goals in round 16 and then in thrashing Geelong last week that they have to be the favourites. It will be tight and perhaps low-scoring, but Collingwood has been the best team all year and deservedly starts the favourite.
ASHLEY BROWNE: Collingwood by 20 points
TIM LANE: St Kilda by 11
JON PIERIK: St Kilda by 9
FRANCIS LEACH: St Kilda by 2
WAYNE CAREY: Collingwood by 13
CHARLES HAPPELL: St Kilda by 11
TAB SPORTSBET: Collingwood $1.45, St Kilda $2.70
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Mug's Guide to 2010 AFL Grand Final


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