An accurate reading of the tea leaves regarding Tasmania's future as an AFL base is not easy right now. Certainly, it's tempting to believe the AFL is seeking to pave the way for the state to have its own team. A deep, dark conspiracy theorist, though, might suggest the manner in which things are unfolding could be designed to demonstrate that the Tassie-knockers were right all along: that the state won't cut the mustard.

It now appears distinctly likely that perpetually beleaguered North Melbourne will play seven or eight games per season on the island. The Herald Sun has reported AFL Tasmania chairman, Dominic Baker, as saying that such a deal could be seen as a transitional phase into Tasmania having its own team. I believe this would be totally the wrong way for a Tasmanian team to be formed and is so fraught with risk that it could lead to the failure of a worthy, and overdue, venture.

Theorising on this is not easy because it involves an assumption that North Melbourne is headed for relocation. North's president, James Brayshaw, says this will never happen and that any decision to play games in Tasmania would be made only to secure the club's permanent future as a Melbourne-based entity. It's hard, however, to avoid the impression that the ground is being prepared by those who shape football's destiny to take the Kangas south.

Such a move would be a pragmatic quick-fix to the problem of Tasmania and its place in the game but is the most dangerous way of giving the state its rightful inclusion in the national league. If it is serious about including Tassie, the AFL should be looking for a means of giving it a team that is exclusively and identifiably Tasmanian. The idea of relocating a club with almost a hundred years of history as a Victorian entity is wrong-headed in the extreme.

Tasmanians support the AFL and its clubs with a level of fervour not fully understood or appreciated on mainland Australia. In recent years, almost 10,000 of them have been persuaded to become members of Hawthorn due to the Hawks' commitment to playing games in Launceston. Tens of thousands more Tasmanians enthusiastically support various other of the AFL clubs. St Kilda has a strong following born of the 1960s when the Saints recruited so successfully from the Apple Isle, while Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond and the rest have their rusted-on followers.

The problem with the North Melbourne idea is that the Kangaroos would inevitably be one of the least-supported AFL teams among Tasmanians, and rusted-on Hawks, Saints and co would be unlikely to swing to a club that has long been seen as an opponent. Kangaroos don't change their stripes overnight.

Tasmania is not a big state, with a population that has only recently ticked beyond the half-million mark. If it is to field a team in the AFL it must optimise the backing from its people. Its team could not afford to be a second favourite among much of its population. It has to be a team that would quickly be backed, and financially supported, by the majority.

If the AFL is seriously considering attempting to relocate the Kangaroos to Tasmania, this would represent an extraordinary change of position. For years, AFL chiefs have derided the idea that the state could support its own team. As recently as Brownlow Medal night this year, I was mocked by a tired and emotional former AFL heavyweight for frequently suggesting otherwise.

Yet now, it seems there could be a push to shoehorn a Victorian team with a poor following, both in its own state and in Tasmania, onto the island. From being a collection of Tassie-sceptics, it appears the AFL may suddenly have become a bunch of recklessly pro-Tassie optimists. Believe me, if you were to come up with a scheme that offered the greatest chance of failure, a relocation such as this would be it.

I want to see a Tasmanian AFL team as much as anyone. I believe, though, the formation of such an entity, if it is to work, must be done with a clear understanding of Tasmanian football. I'm not sure that what appears to be in the offing reflects this. Those tea leaves are currently assuming a somewhat disturbing shape.