North Melbourne is BPL's prediction to finish 12th in 2011.

It is a prediction we make with some trepidation, because the race for the finals in 2011 is between 12 teams and the Kangaroos have some genuine claims on taking part in September.

They are well coached. Brad Scott has lost none of the toughness from his playing days, is innovative and the players clearly love him. Early signs are that the Geelong boys feel the same way about his brother.

North was probably the best team outside the finals last season. The Kangaroos beat Melbourne in the final game of the season last year in a game regarded by many as a plebiscite on which team had the best young list in the competition.

Indeed, there is much to like a midfield headed by the venerable Brent Harvey, Daniel Wells and the outstanding Andrew Swallow. Chuck in the emerging Ryan Bastinac, Jack Ziebell, Liam Anthony, Ben Cunnington and Sam Wright, and it is apparent that Scott has plenty to work with.

That Melbourne will figure higher on the projected BPL AFL ladder for 2011 will anger many blue-and-white loyalists. They would have hoped the round 22 match last year would have settled the debate about which side is tracking faster.

Whatever we have witnessed so far in 2011 is always prefaced by "It's only the NAB Cup" but North's opening outing in the round-robin clash at Geelong against both the Cats and the Western Bulldogs threw up some concerns. North's skill level was really poor and it butchered the ball throughout both matches, but what was more concerning was that after a week in which the club had been again - and perhaps unfairly - been hammered about its finances, there was little passion and little fight in a team that has traditionally punched above its weight.

North is placing great hope that key forward Drew Petrie returns to something like his best after his 2010 was decimated by injuries. Lindsay Thomas was the leading goalkicker in his absence with 29 goals - not nearly enough for a team that wants to play finals. And besides, Thomas is a small forward, deceptively good mind you, but a small forward all the same. Ben McKinley comes across from West Coast and must try to get a couple of goals a week to earn his keep.

The other worry over North is the injury list. As of this week it features the likes of Bastinac, Nathan Grima, Lachlan Hansen, Hamish McIntosh and Levi Greenwood, and none are short-term. At one stage a few weeks back, the Kangas had just 30 players on the track. We have seen in the last few years how sides like Hawthorn and Adelaide have battled to make any headway after starting the year with such long injury lists.

At full-strength, North can be really good. But the Roos aren't good enough to carry injuries to so many important players across the ground and they'll be entering the season just a bit short-handed.

But of course, with the Kangaroos being the enigmas they are, they could finish top four and make fools out of me and just about everyone else.

So far...

13. West Coast

14. Richmond

15. Gold Coast

16. Port Adelaide

17. Brisbane Lions