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The 2011 BPL Season Predictor

Charles Happell

Charles Happell

Written on Monday, 21 March 2011 00:00

With three days until the AFL season blasts off, BPL has asked its team of esteemed experts and highly-paid pundits to get out their crystal balls and oujia boards (then closely examine a set of chicken entrails) and deliver their 2011 prognostications.

The experts polled were Tim Lane, Wayne Carey, Dwayne Russell, Tim Watson, Gerard Whateley, Francis Leach, Charles Happell and Ashley Browne, some of whom have played the game at the very highest level, others of whom retired after the Under 13Bs and have gone on to write and talk about the game anyway.

To our way of thinking, 2011 will be the Year of the Magpie (again), with the main dangers coming from the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and St Kilda. No great surprises there.

But, operating on the principle that at least two teams drop out of the top eight each year, Tim Lane has predicted (bravely) that Geelong will finish in the bottom half of the ladder and (more bravely still) that the Western Bulldogs will join them! Now that's what I call putting your neck on the line. None of this pussyfooting around like we see (and hear) from so many of our 'Special Comments' men in the media.

It should be pointed out that Tim was the first pundit to publicly declare Geelong's era over late last season - which he was pilloried for at the time, but which later proved to be absolutely spot on.

But the Cats and Dogs to both miss the eight? Sheesh, if he gets this one right, every futurist and fortune teller should pack up shop, burn the Tarot cards and retire. All matters pertaining to the future of any activity in this country will henceforth be referred to soothsayer Lane.

(A special mention here to Ashley Browne, esteemed BPL colleague, who has stated unequivocally: 'John Worsfold will be gone as coach of West Coast by Round 16'.)

At the other end of the ladder, a surprising number of panellists chose Brisbane to finish last, below their Queensland cousins, Gold Coast Suns. If so, that spells a very long and torrid year for a certain M Voss.

He is the obvious coach under the pump, but - we think - there's also pressure on Worsfold in the west and Brett Ratten at Carlton.

The future of Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse drew a couple of interesting responses. Many panellists thought Mick wouldn't stay on at Collingwood next year - even though he has signed a contract to become director of coaching. Dwayne Russell thought he'd go back to West Coast to coach; Tim Watson thought he'd get 'a Godfather offer' to coach Carlton.

All these intriguing scenarios will play out over the next six months, and much more besides. So, here's BPL's 2011 AFL time capsule, due for unearthing in October ....


Tim-Lane


TIM LANE
3AW and Channel 10 commentator
BPL Columnist

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
Yes

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
Hawthorn

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Fremantle, Carlton, Sydney, Essendon, North Melbourne

04The smokey?
Essendon

05The slider?
Geelong

06Wooden spoon?
Brisbane

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Robert Warnock (Carl)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Brad Ottens (Geel)

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
John Worsfold

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
See above - a seventh-placed finish.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or will he coach elsewhere?
Stay at Collingwood.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
Yes

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
Anzac Day - Essendon v Collingwood

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Buddy Franklin winning the Coleman Medal into Collingwood for the flag


Ashley-Browne


ASHLEY BROWNE
BPL Columnist

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
Yes, and deservedly so. A great club

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
Hawthorn, the one club that matches up well with the Pies. Buddy never plays a bad one against them.

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Geelong, Adelaide, Sydney, Fremantle

04The smokey?
Adelaide

05The slider?
North Melbourne

06Wooden Spoon?
Brisbane Lions

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Sam Blease (Melbourne)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Barry Hall (WB)

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
John Worsfold will be gone as coach of West Coast by Round 16.

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
Dons to finish 10th; TV cameras to have a field day when they catch St Jim swearing in the coaches box.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
Mick will never coach again. Will be Grandfather of the Year in 2012.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
Yep. Their top six players get the Saints a top-four berth. The bottom six prevents them from winning a flag.

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
Collingwood v Hawthorn, Rd 15 at the MCG

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Barry Hall doing his nana into Gary Ablett playing fewer than 16 games.


Wayne-Carey

WAYNE CAREY
Dual premiership captain, BPL Vidcaster

 

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
Quite possibly. They'll make the Grand Final and then, as we know, anything can happen.

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
Both the Bulldogs and St Kilda.

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton, Adelaide, North Melbourne

04The smokey?
Adelaide

05The slider?
Sydney

06Wooden Spoon?
Gold Coast

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
David Swallow (GC)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
As a former 30+ year-old player in this position, I'd rather not put the hex on a fellow veteran.

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
A lottery. There's only two types of coaches: those who've been sacked and those who are about to be sacked.

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
His teams will be well drilled and well prepared but it will be a learning year for him. I don't think the Bombers will make the eight.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
I don't think he will be at Collingwood next year, no. I think he'll step away from the game for a year to weigh up his options.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
No, they've still got a well-coached side that - with a bit of luck - can win it.

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
At this stage, one doesn't stand out. They're all looking pretty good to me. Ask me after they've all played each other once.

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Collingwood making the top four into Gold Coast for wooden spooners.


Dwayne-Russell

DWAYNE RUSSELL
3AW and FoxSports commentator

 

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
No, the Saints are due some luck.

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
St Kilda. Riewoldt fit for a full season and with a better Grand Final performance could be the extra 1% the Saints need.

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
St Kilda, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Adelaide, Essendon, Fremantle

04The smokey?
Hawthorn.

05The slider?
Fremantle.

06Wooden Spoon?
West Coast.

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Chris Yarran (Carl)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Luke Power (BL)

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
John Worsfold.

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
Well. His Bombers could well scrape into the eight.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
No, Mick will return to coach West Coast for 2012.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
No, it's open for two more seasons.

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
It might sound pathetic but I enjoy broadcasting every game. They all have a story.

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Take the Newspaper Debates Multi again this year - Easter Friday footy into umpiring standards into Match Review Panel inconsistencies into Grand Final ticketing into Grand Final extra time. (Mightn't pay much, though.)

 


Tim-Watson

TIM WATSON
SEN and Channel 7 commentator

 

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
Yes

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
Western Bulldogs

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
Collingwood, Bulldogs, Sydney, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Geelong, Carlton, Fremantle

04The smokey?
Hawthorn

05The slider?
Geelong

06Wooden Spoon?
Gold Coast

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Tendai Mzungu (Frem)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Simon Black (Bris)

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
Brett Ratten

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
Essendon will win 50% of their matches and finish just outside the eight.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
He will get a Godfather offer to coach Carlton.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
Yes. They will still be around the mark but their best chance has evaporated.

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
Essendon v Geelong in Round 15. After the off-season movement between these clubs, there may be some sting in this one.

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Brisbane to finish bottom four into Paul Roos being the most talked-about non-AFL coach.


Gerard-Whateley

GERARD WHATELEY
ABC Radio game caller,
FoxSports panellist

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
No

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
Western Bulldogs

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
Bulldogs, Collingwood, Adelaide, Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Essendon

04The smokey?
Adelaide

05The slider?
St Kilda

06Wooden Spoon?
Richmond

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Andrew Krakouer to be the most high-profile player ever to emerge from obscurity.

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Dean Brogan - the substitute's bib awaits.

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
Jeff Gieschen and the umpires - by the Sunday of Round 2.

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
A terrific year ahead for Hird as he guides the Bombers back to the finals. Essendon fans to realise in Rd 12 that he isn't actually playing.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
Yes, he'll take up the honorary role as Coaching Elder at Collingwood while working full-time in the media.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
Yes

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
Round 20 - Geelong v Gold Coast. G Ablett returns to Skilled Stadium and fans hail the little champ as a campaign begins to ensure his sons are Cats not Suns.

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
David Swallow winning the Rising Star award into GWS finding a phone number for someone connected to Tom Scully.


Charlie-Happell

CHARLES HAPPELL
BPL Publisher

 

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
No

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
St Kilda

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong, Fremantle, North Melbourne

04The smokey?
Adelaide

05The Slider?
Sydney, Carlton

06Wooden Spoon?
Brisbane

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Cameron Richardson (NM)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Cameron Ling (Geel)

09The jungle drums will first start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
Michael Voss.

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
Well, to begin with. Then some harsh realities will set in: mediocre list, injuries to a squad without depth, and mounting losses. Will finish 10th, or thereabouts.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
Just can't see Mick playing second banana to anyone. Expect a huge offer from Carlton or Richmond.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
No. Still ajar.

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
This is an easy one. Round 15 at Etihad Stadium - Geelong v Essendon. Much bad blood here, and a drop or two might be spilt that Saturday night.

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Richmond to lose the season-opener into at least one report being laid in the aforementioned Geelong-Essendon game.


Francis-Leach

FRANCIS LEACH
SEN Broadcaster

 

 

01Will Collingwood go back-to-back?
Quite capable of it. Can they maintain their focus and intensity and how will they cope if they're cursed with injury? Will last year's big improvers - Dawes, Blair & Sidebottom amongst others - continue the upward trend. If they do, they'll be formidable. If not, they'll be challenged.

02Which team represents their greatest threat?
Hawthorn is the team most likely but something tells me the Western Bulldogs might have a fair shot at the title. They were dead on their feet at the end of last season, so discount their poor finals campaign. Once again, injuries might tell the tale, but it just might be their time.

03The final eight (in order, after finals)?
Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, Essendon

04The smokey?
Melbourne

05The Slider?
Fremantle

06Wooden Spoon?
Brisbane Lions

07The Barlow (player to emerge from obscurity)?
Isaac Smith (Haw)

08The Zimmer Frame (30+ y-o player overtaken by pace of game)?
Daniel Kerr - Not quite 30, but a couple of years absence through injury might have robbed him of the weapons he needed to be an eilte player.

09The jungle drums will start beating first for which underperforming coach/team?
If Carlton struggle, Brett Ratten will feel he's on the set of "Daktari".

10How will James Hird fare in his first season as coach?
The honeymoon will be long and he'll be given a season's grace regardless of results.

11Will Mick Malthouse remain at Collingwood in 2012 or coach elsewhere?
If there's a job coaching AFL football somewhere, he'll take it. It's not just what he does - it's who he is.

12Has the premiership window slammed shut on St Kilda?
Windows only matter on "Play School". (Anyway, I'm an arched window man myself).

13Which home-and-away game are you most looking forward to seeing?
Round 20 - Geelong vs Gold Coast, Skilled Stadium. Because going to your ex's place with your new partner is always a tough day out.

14The TAB Footy Bet - a double - you'd be most confident of winning?
Collingwood winning the flag into Mick Malthouse coaching AFL football again in 2012.

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