It says much that after 16 years of underachievement in the AFL (three seasons of finals appearances, none of them consecutive) that nobody is holding out for much from Fremantle in 2011.

A fixture of the top four for much of last season, the Dockers comfortably handled Hawthorn in a home elimination final before meekly succumbing to Geelong the following week in a semi-final at the MCG.

You may remember that match, but then again you may not. Rarely in 40 years of watching football has this writer seen a final that was so obviously over in the first 10 minutes.

Many are picking the Dockers to be among the big sliders in 2011. We at BPL are sitting on the fence just a bit. We have them dropping a peg or two, but still making the finals.

We have them in eighth. Too much talent to slide way back down the ladder but we can't see where the major improvement will come from.

The Dockers start 2011 with one significant handicap, the departure of Chris Tarrant back to Collingwood. Tarrant was superb down back for Fremantle last year and his absence leaves a gaping hole that we can't fathom quite how wit will be replaced.

There are also concerns about Fremantle's health. A significant amount of players have missed a fair bit of the pre-season. They're slowly returning to full fitness, but the club itself admits it will be taking underdone players to the Gabba on Saturday night for the season opener against Brisbane. Emerging midfielder Anthony Morabito - a major find last season - won't play at all this year because of a knee injury while the club has yet to put a date on the return of Michael Barlow, after his badly broken leg last season.

The Dockers must also deal with their history. They're a club that has traditionally not handled prosperity all that well. Right now, the club has heaps of members and almost caught up to West Coast in a number of off-field KPIs and the momentum needs to continue.

But there are reasons not to give up entirely. The Dockers have the tallest and best ruckman in the league, Aaron Sandilands and one of the rising midfield stars in AFL, Stephen Hill. He was pick three in the 2008 national draft and I suspect no.1, if there was the opportunity for a do over.

Then there's Matthew Pavlich - captain and all-round match-winner, whether Mark Harvey deploys him as a tall midfielder or key forward. He will win matches for Harvey in either role.

Finally, there is the draw. The Dockers have 12 games in Perth. Among those who visit them in Perth this year are Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs. It's a tough home schedule and you would think the Dockers need to win at least eight and probably nine of their home games to make the finals.

They start with Brisbane at the Gabba followed by Geelong at home. Drop both of those and they could be swimming against the tide for much of the season.

THE STORY SO FAR

9. CARLTON

10. ESSENDON

11. MELBOURNE

12. NORTH MELBOURNE

13. WEST COAST

14. RICHMOND

15. GOLD COAST

16. PORT ADELAIDE

17. BRISBANE