We've picked Hawthorn to finish second this year - up five places from 2010 - but with one or two reservations.

Because your guess is as good as ours as to which Hawthorn will turn up over the next 22 weeks.

We assume it will be the good Hawthorn, the one that wrenched the 2008 premiership from Geelong, the one that scares the life out of Collingwood, the one that - on its day - can make any of the other 16 sides look very pedestrian indeed.

If, of course, the horrid Hawthorn turns up, then it'll be a whole different story. That's the preening, smug, self-satisfied Hawthorn that flatters to deceive and fails to deliver. The Hawthorn of 2009 and 2010.

Still, from all reports, the club has put in a mighty pre-season and team barometer Lance 'Buddy' Franklin is just jumping out of his skin and raring for the season to start.

Much has changed in the off-season: Cameron Bruce and Kyle Cheney joined the Hawks from Melbourne and David Hale from North Melbourne. The club lost Campbell Brown to Gold Coast, Trent Croad to retirement and several others, including Beau Dowler, Beau Muston, Simon Taylor and Travis Tuck, were delisted. And Luke Hodge took up the captaincy from Sam Mitchell.

Off the field, Leon Cameron arrived as an assistant coach and John Barker was bade farewell. Coach Alastair Clarkson now starts the final year of his contract - while Jeff Kennett will want to sign off with a flourish in his final year as president.

After starting the 2010 season with one win from seven rounds, the good Hawthorn showed itself and won 11.5 of the next 16 games to make the finals (before, of course, falling meekly to Fremantle in the first week of September).

In that golden run, they accounted for Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs, and managed a draw with St Kilda (in a game they should have won). So, the good news is that the Hawks can beat anyone on their day. And they are one side that know they can match it with the Magpies - and the 2010 premiers understand that, as well.

As for personnel, they still have 16 players from their 2008 premiership team on the list, plus dual premiership player Shaun Burgoyne. It's just a matter of it all coming together for an entire season.

Campbell Brown's hardness in defence will be missed. His departure could open the way for new recruit Paul Puopolo or Cheney.

The Hawks' midfield is always serviceable, and sometimes much better than that. Hodge, Mitchell and Sewell will again lead the way in the clinches.

But is up forward where the Hawks should really hold a distinct edge over most rivals. Franklin needs to find some consistency to stamp himself as a genuine star of the game, not a poseur who only performs when the urge takes him. If he gets back to 2008 form, Jarryd Roughead can impose himself on contests in the way he should - and brings his kicking boots with him - and Cyril Rioli shows off his full bag of tricks, there's simply not a defence that can hold the Hawks. If the club can achieve some consistency in attack this year, it should really lock down a position in the top four.

The drafting of Hale will help the ruck stocks, where Brent Renouf remains the No.1 man. And Max Bailey could yet become a factor after returning from three knee reconstructions.

Cameron Bruce, the former Melbourne all-rounder, might be 31 but brings much experience and can play as a midfielder, rebounding defender or a mid-sized forward.

The Hawks have a pretty good draw with four winnable games at Aurora, 11 at the MCG, two at Etihad and only one game against each of last year's grand finalists, St Kilda and Collingwood.

And really, the AFL couldn't have been kinder with the opening salvo of games: Adelaide away (which admittedly will be tough), Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast (h). So they should be 3-1, at least, after four rounds

So there's much there for the brown-and-gold army to be upbeat. All they need now is for the good Hawthorn to turn up.

The story so far:

2. Hawthorn

3. Western Bulldogs

4. St Kilda

5. Geelong

6. Adelaide

7. Sydney

8. Fremantle

9. Carlton

10. Essendon

11. Melbourne

12. North Melbourne

13. West Coast

14. Richmond

15. Gold Coast

16. Port Adelaide

17. Brisbane Lions