The Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and St Kilda have a few backers but the overwhelming premiership favourite is Collingwood.

And who are we to argue?

It may have taken an extra Grand Final to establish it as fact, but Collingwood was the best team in 2010 and the signs are the Pies will step up a gear again in 2011.

Too many Collingwood players have an upside heading into the new season. Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas, Ben Reid, Sharrod Wellingham, Alan Toovey, Steele Sidebottom and Jarryd Blair would all appear to have significant improvement in their football.

Nick Maxwell, Dane Swan, Heath Shaw, Luke Ball, Travis Cloke and Darren Jolly are in career-best touch and then there are the newcomers.

History suggests that teams that win consecutive flags don't do so with exactly the same side. There needs to be turnover of two to four players and the Pies are on track to do that. Prodigal son Chris Tarrant returns from Fremantle and will take the key defensive post that Nathan Brown has had to vacate because of a season-ending knee injury, while Andrew Krakouer steps in to be crumbing forward. Former Demon defender Simon Buckley will content for a regular senior position, while Brad Dick is also vack from injury.

The noticeable change for the Pies has been Leon Davis, so flaky as a forward, now a running half-back. Interesting move, but one that worked well in the pre-season.

The Collingwood press confounded everyone last year. Will the Magoies try it again or will Mick Malthouse introduce a new wrinkle or a different strategy altogether?

The knocks on the Pies? Not many. Their work at stoppages depends so much on Darren Jolly and they do not have much big man depth. And they'd be hoping 2011 isn't the year that Hawthorn starts to surge because they've struggled against the Hawks in recent years and they've never been able to stop Lance Franklin when he's going.

But they're minor quibbles. With a deep list, young, tough and quick, the Magpies are the team to beat and the likely premiers in 2011.

And then, for reasons best known only to Eddie McGuire, they'll change their coach.

The story so far

2. Hawthorn

3. Western Bulldogs

4. St Kilda

5. Geelong

6. Adelaide

7. Sydney

8. Fremantle

9. Carlton

10. Essendon

11. Melbourne

12. North Melbourne

13. West Coast

14. Richmond

15. Gold Coast

16. Port Adelaide

17. Brisbane Lions