The real lesson from round one of the AFL lesson is not how good Collingwood is, how much Geelong's gameplan has changed, how brave Joel Selwood and Jonathan Brown are, the ineptitude of Port Adelaide, the promise of Essendon or the miserable luck of Brisbane.

It is how ridiculously quickly we rush to judgment on the basis of seeing 1/24th of the season.

If Generation Y's attention span is about the time it takes to logon to Facebook, then the average footy supporter's is half that again. The kneejerk reaction to the results of the first eight (of 192) matches has been mind-blowing, and instructive.

Collingwood will soon be even-money for the flag, intoned one 'pundit' on radio this morning. Essendon's premiership odds have halved to $21 in the 18 hours since its mauling of the Bulldogs on Sunday. Bombers captain Jobe Watson has surged in Brownlow Medal betting; Melbourne are a shoo-in for the final eight; the Bulldogs are gone, the Saints look shaky and Adelaide are the big smokey. 

For one or two crusty old-timers, who've seen opening rounds come and go, these predicitions are meaningless and worthless. They exist mainly to fill newspaper space, radio air time and the blogosphere.

You can bet when Sydney demolish Essendon at the SCG next week, or Gold Coast knock off Carlton in their AFL debut, then we'll have a new media darling, a whole new raft of amended season predictions and maybe even a new flag favourite. 

You might recall that Brisbane won its first four games last season, and were being spoken of as Geelong's greatest challenger for the premiership. Hawthorn won one of its first four and Alastair Clarkson's job as coach became the subject of much speculation. Yet who finished the home-and-away season in seventh place with 12 wins and a draw; and who languished in 13th place with seven paltry successes?

You might also recall a team called Collingwood fluking a one-point win over Melbourne in round two, when young Demon Ricky Petterd spilled a mark in the goalsquare in the dying seconds, and then the Magpies being absolutely belted by St Kilda the following week.

That was the game St Kilda captain Nick Riewoldt tore his hamstring from the bone before half-time and Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse became involved in a very unsavoury verbal spat with Stephen Milne at quarter time.

The Pies kicked just four goals for the match and looked truly awful, bereft of a workable gameplan and functioning forward line. In fact, they looked about as far from a genuine premiership threat as a team could look. More fool those kneejerk nitwits who wrote them off with 19 weeks of the season to go. 

So everyone, a bit of well-meaning advice from Captain Curmudgeon, take a deep breath. Please. Get back to me halfway through the season and talk to me about flag favourites and your revised season predictions then.

I will lay a week's wages ($17.50 inc overtime) on the fact that the Western Bulldogs will finish above Essendon on the ladder after 22 rounds. Any winnings to be donated to the purchase of a new Grade-A, all-leather Sherrin for Julia Gillard to take on her next overseas trip. (And if I lose? The story gets deleted from the site.)