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The Suns will rise (one day)

Ed Wyatt

Ed Wyatt

Written on Tuesday, 12 April 2011 12:28

Will the Gold Coast Suns ever win a game? That's the question footy fans and media members are asking after the expansion team was hopelessly outclassed in its first two matches, losing by scores of 171-52 and 122-51.

With 20 more chances to post a victory, you'd think the odds would be pretty good that somewhere down the line, the Suns will catch a couple of breaks and get that initial win.

But the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers probably thought the same thing. That team played 14 NFL games and lost every one of them.

And the NHL's Washington Capitals won just eight of 80 games in their inaugural season in 1974, at one point losing 17 straight.

Closer to home, the Fremantle Dockers, who started play in the AFL in 1995, took nine seasons to have a winning record, and have only played finals football three times in 16 seasons.

It's a tricky thing, expansion. In some cases, like Major League baseball - a sport with no salary cap and rampant free agency - young teams can succeed quickly. The Arizona Diamondbacks won the World Series in their fourth season, the Florida Marlins in their fifth.

In ice hockey, on the other hand, new teams have struggled mightily. The Atlanta Thrashers entered the NHL in 1999 and have made the playoffs once. Same for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who started play in 2000.

Here are some examples of expansion teams and how they've fared:

US expansion teams

Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB)

Inaugural season: 1998

Record that year: 65 wins, 97 losses

First winning (more wins than losses) season: 1999

Championships: 1 (2001)

Analysis: If the Suns want to take heart from any expansion team, this would be the one to look at. Four years after starting from scratch, Arizona won the World Series, with a stunning upset of the New York Yankees. As mentioned, however, the D-Backs benefited from free agency and no salary cap restrictions.

Other MLB examples (first season, biggest success):

Colorado Rockies (1993, lost World Series in 2007)

Florida Marlins (1993, won World Series in 1997 and 2003)

Seattle Mariners (1977, lost ALCS in 1995, 2000 and 2001)

Portland Trail Blazers (NBA)

Inaugural season: 1970

Record that year: 29 wins, 53 losses

First winning season: 1976

Championships: 1 (1977)

Analysis: The Blazers are another good model for the Suns to look at. Dreadful in their first few seasons, they won the NBA title in their eighth season and would have been favourites the following year if star center Bill Walton hadn't sustained an injury. The club set all sorts of attendance records in the 80's and 90's and made appearances in the NBA Finals in 1990 and 1992.

Other NBA examples (first season, biggest success):

Charlotte Bobcats (2004, made playoffs in 2009)

Dallas Mavericks (1980, lost NBA Finals in 2006)

Toronto Raptors (1995, lost conference semifinals in 2000)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL)

Inaugural season: 1976

Record that year: 0 wins, 14 losses

First winning season: 1979

Championships: 1 (2002)

Analysis: Still the benchmark for first year futility, going winless in 14 games in 1976. Those hapless Bucs inspired the famous quote from head coach John McKay, who when asked about "his team's execution" replied "I'm in favour of it." It took Tampa Bay four years to finish above .500 and 27 years to win a Super Bowl.

Other NFL examples (first season, biggest success):

Carolina Panthers (1995, lost Super Bowl in 2003)

Houston Texans (2002, first winning season in 2009)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1995, lost AFC championship in 1996)

Washington Capitals (NHL)

Inaugural season: 1974

Record that year: 8 wins, 67 losses, 5 draws

First winning season: 1982

Championships: None

Analysis: Were a bad team for their first eight seasons, but after that the Caps became reasonably competitive. They made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in 1998 and in the past few years, have been one of the NHL's elite teams. Currently feature arguably the best player in the game, Alex Ovechkin.

Other NHL examples (first season, biggest success):

Anaheim Ducks (1993, won Stanley Cup in 2007)

Columbus Blue Jackets (2000, made playoffs in 2008)

Minnesota Wild (2000, lost conference finals in 2003)

Australian expansion teams

Melbourne Storm (NRL)

Inaugural season: 1998

Record that year: 17 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw

First winning season: 1998

Championships: 3 (although two later stripped)

Analysis: A model of early success for expansion teams, but hard to judge because of the massive News Limited investment and - of course - the recent salary cap rorting revelations.

Fremantle Dockers (AFL)

Inaugural season: 1995

Record that year: 8-14

First winning season: 2003

Championships: None

Analysis: Very inconsistent performers. Didn't finish higher than 12th in its first eight seasons, then ended the 2003 season in 5th place. Finished 10th in 2005, jumped to 3rd in 2006, then plummeted to 11th in 2007.

South Dragons (NBL)

Inaugural season: 2006

Record that year: 15 wins, 18 losses

First winning season: 2008-09

Championships: 1 (2008-09)

Analysis: After a terrible second season, the Dragons rebuilt under super coach Brian Goorjian and won a championship in 2009. The club then folded when the NBL "re-launched" later that year.

Western Force (Super Rugby)

Inaugural season: 2006

Record that year: 2 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw

First winning season: 2008

Championships: None

Analysis: It remains to be seen whether the Force will be able compete with longer-established New South Wales and Queensland teams. In fact, the brand new Melbourne Rebels may become more successful on and off the field.

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