As the AFL Commission spends most of its waking hours trying to wangle $1billion out of its next broadcast rights holders, a small but perceptible shift is going on out there in fan-land.

People, it seems, are voting with their feet and not going to AFL games in the numbers they once did. In fact, the average attendances - to this point of the season, after three rounds - have been on the decline since 2007.

About 3150 fewer people, per match, have turned out to watch the 24 games this year than they did in 2007.

Average attendances for the first three matches of 2011 are the lowest since 2006 - but there was a good excuse that year: the MCG was out of action for four rounds because of the Commonwealth Games.

The league must have got an inking in round one it might have been in for a rocky ride.

The season-opener between Carlton and Richmond drew barely 60,000 on the Thursday night, way under the anticipated mark. (And that figure surely gave the powers-that-be pause for thought: this was a dud contest when it was introduced four years ago - largely because of Richmond's ineptitude - and has not got any better.)

On the following night, the Geelong-St Kilda 'blockbuster' attracted fewer than 43,000 fans - an astonishingly low number. Later in the round, Collingwood's first home-and-away game since winning the premiership - admittedly against Port Adelaide - didn't go close to filling Etihad Stadium. Brisbane hosted Fremantle at the Gabba and - perhaps unsurprisingly given their off-seaon - managed to get just 23,373 along (almost 6,000 below their Round 1 fixture last year against West Coast).

The total first-round attendace figure was the lowest since that particularly threadbare year of 2006 when the first game held at the MCG after the Commonwealth Games clean-up was on Anzac Day.

So one or two alarm bells must have sounded after that opening weekend.

The league's media department went into overdrive, naturally, citing train cancellations to and from Geelong on Friday night - including special footy train services after the game - and the closure of traffic lanes on the West Gate Bridge as reasons for the poor Friday turnout. The Formula One GP was also thrown up as an alibi.

But the thing is: attendances haven't got demonstrably better in the past two rounds.

In fact, the Collingwood-Carlton match that started round 3 last Friday night drew 88,181 - a healthy number by any standards - but that has been the biggest attendance by about 28,000 people.

St Kilda and Richmond, two well-supported clubs, drew 41,465; Geelong at home to Port Adelaide managed a paltry 22,420 and even Essendon and the Western Bulldogs in round one pulled just 42,617 through the gate, an unusually low figure given the Bombers' encouraging NAB Cup form and the fact it was their home game.

Interestingly, five of the seven poorest crowds this year have featured the two Queensland teams - the Lions and Suns - and that will be causing some concern in the corridors of AFL House. They don't want those hard-won gains north of the Tweed River to start slipping away.

It's difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons for such a dropoff. In fact, given that most of the traditional Victorian powerhouses - Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, Essendon and Hawthorn - are reasonable chances to make the top eight, it's doubly confusing. Even allowing for a few late trains and closed lanes.

It will be interesting to watch this trend over the coming weeks to see whether it is just a statistical blip, or something more deep-rooted.

Average AFL attendance figures, after three rounds, since 2005:

2011: 37,888
2010: 39,326
2009: 39,437
2008: 40,928
2007: 41,039
2006: 33,467*
2005: 38,222

(* MCG out of action until round 4 due to Commonwealth Games.)