Richmond v Collingwood (MCG)

The Tigers get to play their third Friday night match under lights this season - a privilege for a team that still hasn't established itself as a power. Oddly enough, the last time these teams met on a Friday night, in 2007, Richmond prevailed by 20 points. But the most recent contest - late last season when Collingwood was building a head of steam - resulted in an 82-point cakewalk to the Pies. Richmond will again be without injured key defenders Alex Rance, Luke McGuane and Kelvin Moore, which means their task against the premiers will be doubly difficult. The Magpies have scored 24, 21 and 15 goals in their three rounds so far and should have no trouble notching another big winning score here. In fact, this should be a walk in the park for the premiers and expect them to do enough to win comfortably, as they did last week against Carlton, then take their foot off the pedal.

TIP: Collingwood by 36 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: Rich $7.50, Coll $1.07

Hawthorn v West Coast (Aurora Stadium)

The Hawks make their first trip to Tassie for the season. And they'll do it without Ben Stratton who badly injured a knee last week. The brown-and-gold look to be working their way into some serious form, notching two big wins in the past fortnight and amassing 42 and 30 scoring shots in the process. And they could well continue that scoring onslaught against a young Eagles outfit who'll be a long way from home and braving the Tassie chill. After two good wins, West Coast slipped up last week to Sydney at home but did enough to suggest they'll be big improvers this year. Ruckman Dean Cox has been a standout, while Priddis and Embley have caught the eye in the midfield. Hawthorn has won the last two encounters against the Eagles in Launceston, and will stretch that streak to three on Saturday.

TIP: Hawthorn by 40 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: Haw $1.11, WC $6.00

Carlton v Essendon (MCG)

A legitimate blockbuster this year, now that Essendon is looking like a decent football side once more. Their demolition of St Kilda last week was exciting and entertaining and must have given the Bomber faithful enormous confidence for the future. Captain Jobe Watson has become an elite player in the competition, youngsters such as Michael Hurley are also doing their bit. And, apart from last year, Essendon has a great record against one of its arch-foes: Carlton's 76-point win snapped a six-match losing streak. We're beginning to think the Bombers are no fly-by-nighters, but this match will tell us a lot about them. The Blues have not done much wrong and lost honourably to Collingwood last week, hence their favouritsm. But we think that faith might be misplaced.

TIP: Essendon by 21 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: Carl $1.85, Ess $1.90

Sydney v Geelong (SCG)

The Cats are riding an eight-game winning streak over the Sydneysiders but, interestingly, the last time they met at the SCG - in that famous semi-final in 2005 - Nick Davis delivered the Swans a memorable win. On paper, Geelong - on the back of a 79-point win over Port last week - should keep that sequence alive. But that result flattered the Cats and I think an upset may be in the offing here, especially given the game is at the SCG where the Swans can apply their patented and famous choke hold on their opponents. Sydney has been super-impressive itself - they're undefeated and have even seen off the high-flying Bombers. There won't be many goals in this one; it will be low scoring and hard-fought. The Cats will bring back Andrew Mackie, David Wojcinski and perhaps Tom Lonergan from injury. But against a Swans side featuring Adam Goodes, on their favourite ground, that won't be enough. We'll be backing the roughie.

TIP: Sydney by 9 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: Syd $2.15, Geel $1.65

Port Adelaide v Adelaide (AAMI Stadium)

Shapes as a good old-fashioned showdown. Can you believe it's the 30th time these two clubs have squared off since Port's debut season? Port has had a tough time of it this year and went down by 79 points to Geelong last week, prompting coach Matthew Primus to again question the work rate of his on-ballers. As a result a couple of changes could be in the offing: Mitch Banner, Brett Ebert and Jacob Surjan might get a look-in. Port has won four of its last five games against Adelaide, including a 19-point win in round 17 last season. And, given these games often defy the formline, Port might get up again. But the Crows were stung by their defeat to Freo last week (when they started as favourites) and will be anxious to restate their credentials as finalists. They have injury concerns (Davis, Porplyzia, Mackay, Sloane, Douglas, Vince and Doughty) but should still be classy enough here - just.

TIP: Adelaide by 15 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: Port $3.00, Adel $1.36

Gold Coast v Melbourne (Gabba)

There are murmurings that Gold Coast is ready to spring a surprise here and, at $5.00 with TAB Sportsbet, clearly there's been a little bit of interest in them. These two teams have been in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week: Suns' hardman Campbell Brown earned himself a four-week holiday after throwing his weight (and elbows) around against the Bulldogs, while Demons' vice-captain Brent Moloney has been carpeted for his boozy session at the weekend. If Melbourne want to be taken seriously, they should win this match, and win it well against the competition new boys. But they haven't hit full stride yet, just getting over Brisbane last week and being flogged by Hawthorn in Rd 2, so might not be ready to blow the Suns away - just do enough to get over the line.

TIP: Melbourne by 39 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: GC $5.00, Melb $1.15

Fremantle v North Melbourne (Paterson's Stadium)

The Kangaroos in this match are the same price on TAB Sportsbet as Gold Coast against Melbourne which seems ridiculous, because they're some realistic chance of winning. The Roos are coming off the bye, which will have given them time to regroup after their pathetic loss to Collingwood in Rd 2, a result that caused skipper Brent Harvey to make a couple of unflattering observations about two teammates. There's been soul-searching at Arden St this past fortnight and they'll be fired up to win this, and make a statement. I don't think they've got the firepower - or confidence - to get over the Dockers, but they'll finish closer than many people think. Freo have scored 10-goal wins over North the last two times they've met in Perth. In spite of a long injury list, and a revved-up opponent, I think the Dockers will win again - but by a much narrower margin.

TIP: Fremantle by 18 points

TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $1.15, NM $5.00