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AFL Round 5: The BPL preview

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Written on Wednesday, 20 April 2011 23:04

BRISBANE v ST KILDA

On the surface at least, this is not one to get the pulses racing. An injury-ravaged and out-of-form Brisbane up against a winless and down-on-confidence St Kilda. This shapes, however, as a great chance for the Saints to get on the scoreboard in 2011. They're coming off a bye (as are the Lions) and will no doubt have been poring over every aspect of their gameplan and where they're falling down. The answer is twofold: they're not playing the selfless, team-orientated footy they've made an artform and too much - as usual - is being left to Nick Riewoldt up forward. For a good side, they simply don't kick enough goals. And this match is likely to again be a low-scoring affair as both sides try to find a way to cobble together a winning sore. Brisbane were brave in defeat against Melbourne in Round 3 but while they're still without captain Brown, Staker, Drummond and Clarke, can't see them knocking of last year's grand finalists.

TIP: St Kilda by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $3.30, St Kilda $1.30

PORT ADELAIDE v GOLD COAST

Buoyed by their strong (and unexpected) win over arch-rivals Adelaide last week, Port go into this match as overwhelming favourites. A week ago, though, they were traveling so poorly, some people might have given the AFL new boys a chance in this match. Stalwarts Kane Cornes and Danyle Pearce, dropped last week, might be given another week in the SANFL, so well did their teammates play. Jasper Pittard was one of those to step up, and was rewarded with a NAB Rising Star nomination. Gold Coast will welcome captain Gary Ablett back after one of the most talked-about one-week calf injuries ever. He and his young team will continue to learn in their debut season, but hard to see when the first win will come.

TIP: Port by 49 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Port $1.04, Gold Coast $9.50  

CARLTON v ADELAIDE

After their stirring round-one win over Hawthorn, the Crows season has started to fall flat. Ravaged by injury - and a rampant Port Adelaide last week - they need a decent performance to get the year back on track. They'll welcome back Richard Tambling and Michael Doughty from injury, the latter not having played since that Hawthorn game, which will provide a boost. Interestingly, Adelaide has beaten Carlton at their last five meetings in Melbourne, so the away fixture will hold no fears for them. The Blues have Paul Bower and perhaps Brock McLean in line for selection. They're coming off a good performance against Essendon last week, are travelling well and should notch a win here - although expect a fired-up Adelaide to give plenty of cheek early.   

TIP: Carlton by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Carlton $1.25, Adelaide $3.75 

NORTH MELBOURNE v RICHMOND

One of the most interesting games of the round because both teams are winless and desperately need a victory to kick-start their seasons. They're evenly matched - the odds-makers can't separate them - and it should go down to the wire. North has been especially disappointing, showing little of the promise that many had expected to see this year. And it is time that Drew Petrie, Jack Ziebell and Lachie Hansen - among many others - fired a shot. The Tigers have shown glimpses of exciting form, their third quarters against Carlton and Collingwood being standouts. And they welcome back key defenders Luke McGuane and Alex Rance for this game which will tighten up things at the back - and help give the Tiges their maiden win of the season.

TIP: Richmond by 9 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: North $1.85, Richmond $1.90 

ESSENDON v COLLINGWOOD

Collingwood has won the past three Anzac Day clashes by a total of 198 points - an average winning margin of 11 goals. So it's fair to say the Anzac Day hype has not matched the reality in recent times. This year should be different. Yes, the Magpies are in sublime form but Essendon is starting to look - at long last - like a decent football side. The season-ending injuries to Jason Winderlich and Courtenay Dempsey last week haven't helped the Bomber cause. But ruckman David Hille is back this week and if there is one area where the Pies are vulnerable, it's in the ruck. Their No.1 big man Darren Jolly missed last week with knee soreness. If he's below his best on Monday, and Hille, Tom Bellchambers and Paddy Ryder can assert themselves, then perhaps an upset is in the offing. Perhaps. At this stage, though, we won't be tipping against the Pies.

TIP: Collingwood by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Essendon $4.00, Collingwood $1.22 

FREMANTLE v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Many pundits thought the Dockers were in for a slide this year but their early form has been every bit as good as last season's. Were it not for a slip-up against an undermanned Geelong, at home in round 2, they'd be undefeated. They're hard to toss at home these days, where the track is invariably hard and fast, but that produces the sort of fast-flowing football the Bulldogs love. In fact, the Dogs have beaten Freo in their last six outings, all the way back to 2005. It should be a good game this one. But the Bulldogs are coming off the bye, Freo are a vastly different proposition to the one they last played in Perth (Rd 1, 2009), and with Aaron Sandilands and Matthew Pavlich in good form last week, we think the Dockers might be ready to break that six-year drought.

TIP: Fremantle by 16 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $1.65, WB $2.15 

HAWTHORN v GEELONG

A good old-fashioned rivalry to close out the round. Both teams look set to contend for the flag this year - or a play-off place against Collingwood anyway - with the Hawks coming off three straight wins and Geelong yet to lower their colours. So should be a cracking game. Geelong are narrow favourites on the strength of who they've beaten - St Kilda, Freo, Port and Sydney - and how they appear to have added a new defensive steel to their game. But Hawthorn is capable - as Collingwood will attest - of beating anyone on its day. The Hawks' two big game-breakers, Franklin and Rioli, are in sparkling form, their forward line has produced 42, 30 and 22 scoring shots in the past three weeks and - against a Cats' side belted around in the wet by Sydney last week - they might just have too much firepower.

TIP: Hawthorn by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Hawthorn $2.05, Geel $1.72

BPL running total: 23

 

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