Written on Wednesday, 11 May 2011 20:26
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD (MCG, Friday night)
A match that puts the B into Blockbuster: the league's two unbeaten teams, first vs second, at the MCG, in front of 90,000 (weather permitting) in a contest that pits the 2010 premier against the 2009 champion. Collingwood beat Geelong twice last year, the second time by 41 points in the preliminary final when they well and truly put to rest any talk of a Cat hoodoo. The selection talk this week has centred around the Pies: Darren Jolly will miss again, while captain Nick Maxwell and Ben Johnson are in doubt. The Cats, meanwhile, had the luxury of resting S Johnson, Ling and Ottens (for a half) last week. We kind of expected Collingwood to back up with a big season in 2011, but who honestly thought the Cats would be undefeated after six games - with those opponents including St Kilda, Freo and Sydney away and Hawthorn? The one match-up that could shape this game is in the ruck where fresh-faced Cam Wood will come up against that gnarly old pro, Ottens, who is in sparkling form. Centre clearances are crucial in the modern game and that mismatch might tip the scales Geelong's way. Collingwood have a better organised, more reliable and and more potent forward set-up but Varcoe, Ottens, Corey, Enright and Kelly are in sparkling form for the Cats. Also the Pies will be coming into this frenetic contest fresh from a bye ... so we're sticking our neck out and picking the Cats.
BPL TIP: Geelong by 11 points
TAB SPORTSBET: Geel $2.80, Coll $1.40
NORTH MELBOURNE v MELBOURNE (ES, Saturday afternoon)
These two teams turned on a clinker of a contest in Round 22 last year when they showcased two of the best young playing lists in the AFL. Things have not quite panned out how they'd hoped in 2011: the Kangas are languishing near the bottom of the ladder with just one win, the Demons have been more successful but remain wildly erratic. The Demons' 96-point demolition of Adelaide last week was one of the club's best performances in years - but this week they have lost Jack Grimes and Mark Jamar to injury, and Jack Trengove to a controversial suspension. That's three very handy players. The Roos, meanwhile, got their customary whipping at Skilled Stadium - with Liam Anthony racking up half-a-dozen clanger kicks, Lindsay Thomas dropping his head too often in contests and Brent Harvey picking up uncontested possessions - but the form of Wells, Petrie, Goldstein and Thompson was some consolation. North have won the last eight against Melbourne since 2006 but have struggled to find any system this year. And their goalkicking conversion rate is appalling. Still, this should be a close contest with the undermanned Demons to prevail by a whisker.
BPL TIP: Melbourne by 8 points
TAB SPORTSBET: NM $2.00, Melb $1.75
ADELAIDE v GOLD COAST (AAMI Stadium, Saturday afternoon)
The Crows will not want to take the new boys too easily, or risk becoming the competition laughing stock like Brisbane this week - and Port Adelaide before it. Adelaide was truly woeful against Melbourne last week in losing by 16 goals and they way they capitulated in the second half was just spineless. If their players have any semblance of pride, they'll make a statement on Sunday against Gold Coast. Scott Thompson (calf) and Patrick Dangerfield (concussion) will have to prove their fitness first, defender Richard Tambling is set to return from suspension while Bernie Vince did well in the SANFL and should be recalled. Gold Coast have had one memorable win in Adelaide this year and, on the back of their stirring win last week (which earned ruckman Zach Smith a Rising Star Award), will be primed for another. Rugged defender Campbell Brown returns after a four-week suspension to add some steel to the defence while impressive centre half-forward Charlie Dixon has recovered from a calf injury and is likely to play. The Suns will give some cheek but can't see them scoring upset win No.3.
BPL TIP: Adelaide by 45 points
TAB SPORTSBET: Adel $1.13, GC $5.50
BRISBANE v ESSENDON (Gabba, Saturday night)
Poor old Brisbane sit at the foot of the table without a win and this week have had to endure the humiliation of becoming Gold Coast's second victim. And on Saturday night they have to face the league's most improved side, James Hird's Essendon, who continue to impress. The Lions lost Andrew Raines to concussion last week, so he joins the long casualty list at the Gabba which includes captain Jonathan Brown. Essendon might give Brent Stanton, who was the target of the club's boo-boys last week, a rest after he injured a shoulder against West Coast. Amazingly, the Bombers haven't beaten the Lions at the Gabba since 2000 - their last premiership year - which was seven matches ago. And they're also one of the league's worst-performed teams on the road, having won just one of their past nine trips interstate. But the new-look Bombers should have no trouble in improving on both those records on Saturday night, and moving a step closer to cementing a top-four position.
BPL TIP: Essendon by 38 points
TAB SPORTSBET: Bris $4.50, Ess $1.18
SYDNEY v PORT ADELAIDE (SCG, Saturday night)
Sydney has won its last six games against Port, is coming off a morale-boosting win against the Western Bulldogs in Canberra last week and should have no trouble accounting for the out-of-form Port, especially at home (even if the Swans have lost the past two at the SCG). With Mike Pyke ruled out with a quad injury, the door has opened for forgotten ruckman Mark Seaby. Defender Lewis Roberts-Thomson, who is returning from a serious hamstring injury, is also a chance of promotion. Port is sitting second last on the ladder and has had a shocker of a year, with captain Dom Cassisi injured, veterans Chad and Kane Cornes in the last throes of their careers, and the club culture questioned by assistant coach Dean Laidley. They showed a bit more spirit last Friday night against Hawthorn but even that improved showing was dampened by the latest knee injury to key onballer David Rodan who will miss up to six weeks. Expect another long night at the office for the visitors from Alberton.
BPL TIP: Sydney by 37 points
TAB SPORTSBET: Syd $1.12, Port $5.75
HAWTHORN v ST KILDA (MCG, Sunday afternoon)
The Hawks have again promised plenty in 2011 but only rarely delivered. There's something not quite right down at Hawk HQ. At least Cyril Rioli will return this week after a hamstring injury and help to liven things up a bit, while David Hale is set to come back as well. The two teams played out a draw in Rd 17 last season at Etihad Stadium - and this should be a very evenly-fought contest as well. The Saints nearly pinched a win against Carlton on Monday night and showed much better spirit, and form, in running the Blues to within three points. Leigh Montagna will miss a week courtesy of the tribunal but Zac Dawson returns from suspension for this game and he will be important in helping to quell either Franklin or Roughhead. At the other end of the ground, skipper Riewoldt's kicking for goal will again be the subject of much attention. The Saints move the ball slowly and would have moré chance in the close confines of Etihad; at the MCG, with both Montagna and the injured Lenny Hayes missing, Hawthorn should have too much run - and too many scoring options.
BPL TIP: Hawthorn by 21 points
TAB SPORTSBET: Haw $1.36, StK $3.00
WESTERN BULLDOGS v RICHMOND (ES, Sunday afternoon)
The Bulldogs are just going, and their two wins this season have come against the two non-threatening Queensland teams. Against teams of any quality, the Dogs have been sent scampering away, tails between legs. And, at the moment, Richmond is a team of quality, beating North, Brisbane and Fremantle in the past three weeks, and building up a nice head of steam in the process. The Bulldogs are expected to welcome back Barry Hall (ankle), Shaun Higgins (groin) and Tom Liberatore (soreness) while Ryan Hargrave (ankle) could push for selection (and Brian Lake will be given another week in the reserves). Richmond escaped from its big win against Freo unscathed and have a settled line-up. The Tigers are playing with too much confidence and swagger - with the likes of King, Martin, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Foley and Nahas in irrepressible form - and should consign the down-at-heel Dogs to another afternoon of misery.
BPL TIP: Richmond by 17 points
TAB SPORTSBET: $1.60, Rich $2.25
WEST COAST v FREMANTLE (PS, Sunday afternoon)
The latest instalment of the western derby, and it shapes as one of the games of the round. A resurgent West Coast, which has transformed itself into a very competitive unit, against a Fremantle outfit that has won the last eight of these encounters. In fact, Dockers coach Mark Harvey has not been beaten in his seven matches in charge. But he'll have his work cut out in this one: the Eagles have won three games this year and their three defeats have been to Essendon by 16 pts, Hawthorn by 7 and Sydney by 13. So they've been very competitive at each outing. Starting with the ruck duel of Cox v Sandilands, this appears to be a very even contest. The Dockers will be looking for a more potent performance up forward from skipper Pavlich, who has kicked just two goals this year, and hoping Bradley, Mundy, Fyfe, Mayne and Ballantyne continue their excellent form. The Eagles, meanwhile, will focus on their tackling and frontal pressure, their manic attack on the opposition ball-carrier reminiscent of Collingwood. Should be a great battle with Freo to prevail for the ninth straight time.
BPL TIP: Fremantle by 16 points
TAB SPORTSBET: WC $2.00, Frem $1.75
BYE: Carlton
BPL TIPPING TALLY: 40
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AFL Rd 8: Dial B for Blockbuster


my comments well said of the above it is really sad to stand back and see ,hear the comments that are being made about a team that i love and...
Great flashback story. Currently discussing the fors and againsts of becoming a tobacco user with classes of 15yo boys and this information, besides generating a "wow you're kidding" response, has...
Love the call, Smithy. Covered the Eagles for two years in Perth in the early 90s and know exactly what you're talking about - regarding both fans and the media.Charlie Happell
It's a fine piece of journalism when the word "gonads" is utilized. Bravo.
re: umpiring at Weagle home games. It all comes down to the character of their supporters. To generalise: they are ignorant, spoilt children, spoon-fed their gross sense of entitlement by...
Excellent take. They sacked Norm Smith in '65 following 6 premierships & 10 consecutive grand-final appearances. Basically because he was from wrong side of tracks.Still hard to believe. Serve them bloody...
See note above, Mercado. We didn't accept these reports as gospel; we said 'if they are to be believed'. Which they're not, you say. We're happy to accept that. BPL