It is a matter of historical fact that since the AFL introduced its first 'final eight' in 1994, never has the same group of teams qualified for September in consecutive years. Inevitably, and as surely as cricket's summer follows footy's winter, there is change at the top of the ladder when each finals series comes around.

A glance at the records over the past decade reveals that each season an average of three teams feature in the finals who, the previous year, were also-rans. Some years, it's just two new teams who force their way in, other it's four - a full 50% of the final eight. Never has it been just one.

It was that historical reference which prompted Tim Lane, BPL pundit, in March to nominate his 2011 final eight without the Western Bulldogs or Geelong. (He picked Essendon and North Melbourne as the teams to take their place).

Many thought Lane had taken leave of his senses, but his reasoning and methodology were perfectly sound - it's just that he probably got one of those teams badly wrong.

After eight rounds of the season - a third of the way through - it's very hard to see Geelong (sitting undefeated atop the ladder!) not playing off in September although the jury's still out on the hot-and-cold Bulldogs, winners today over Richmond.

Lane touched on St Kilda and said their premiership window, in the vernacular, had slammed shut but still picked them to finish in the top four.

But now, of course, we can see it is the Saints who look like being one of those three teams who (if the decade average is maintained) will drop from the top half of the ladder to the bottom half.

And who would seriously have guessed it? Grand finalists the past two seasons and owners of a game plan that was almost impenetrable - certainly to the vast majority of its opponents who just couldn't find a way to breach the Saints' manic, all-in, team-orientated, python-like squeeze.

The Saints had won 35.5 of 44 matches in the previous two seasons to be the best performed home-and-away side in the comp and, if not for a perverse bounce of the ball late in Grand Final No.1 last September, might have capped that period of dominance with a premiership.

Sure, they'd had the off-season from hell, as scandal after scandal broke and senior team members such as Sam Gilbert, Zac Dawson and Nick Riewoldt found themselves engulfed by a wave of bad publicity. But the Saints were more resilient than that; surely they weren't going to be brought undone by that sort of tabloid fodder and the conniving of a teenage girl.

But it didn't take long before we realised that something was indeed amiss; that the unbreakable bonds that had bound this playing group were beginning to fray at the edges. For in round three, when they played Essendon, the Saints were smashed off the park in a way that was just so uncharacteristic.

The Bombers won by nine goals and their score of 21.10 (136) was the highest conceded by St Kilda for almost three years, since Brisbane hammered 21.15 (141) past them in Round 9, 2008.

To give you an idea of how miserly, and thoroughly effective, the Saints' defence had been in the previous two seasons, consider that of the 53 games the club has played since Round 1, 2009, only five times has the opposition reached triple figures.

Now, after their demoralising loss to Hawthorn today - five goals up at quarter time; five goals behind at the final siren - the Saints have won only one of their first seven games to be in 15th position on the ladder.

Afterwards, coach Ross Lyon said - with a hint of weariness in his voice - he now realised this was not the same St Kilda team that had achieved so much success in the past few seasons. There was something intangible missing from the team, he said, that indefinable quality that all great sporting sides have: spirit, a sense of unity or, as Lyon put it, 'strong character'.

"Our football character that has been so strong is not strong at the moment. You get exposed at this level pretty quickly if you haven't got strong football character," he said.

"We're really easy to play against at the moment."

Lyon said the Saints were not displaying the confidence, resilience and poise that had been their trademark in recent years.

"(We've had) a fair bit of personnel change," he said.

"And even the names that were a part of the past aren't the same players in a multitude of areas.

"It's a multitude of reasons and I think everyone's got to get their head around, which I am slowly, we're not the same team. It's a new season and the past is the past."

The Hawks beat the Saints in clearances 42-30, centre clearances 18-3 (an amazing stat considering Ben McEvoy and Justin Koschitzke were up against the Hawks' pinch-hitting ruck pair of David Hale and Jarryd Roughhead), inside 50s 59-30 and contested possessions 140-123, and Lyon conceded his team was defeated in almost every area of the ground.

After West Coast's drought-breaking derby win over Fremantle later in the day, the 2011 finals picture is becoming a little clearer - if, as history suggests, there is going to be a minimum of two changes to last year's final eight teams.

At this stage, you'd think the 2011 'ins' might be Essendon and West Coast (with Melbourne and Richmond heading the list of 'possibles'), the 'outs' St Kilda and the Bulldogs (and Freo, perhaps, if they keep up this sort of uninspiring form).

Whatever transpires in the final two-thirds of the season, be sure that Tim Lane finals theory will hold true, even if not his prediction of Geelong's demise.