Carlton v Geelong (Etihad Stadium, Friday 7.40pm)

A cracking game to open the round, and one the Cats will play with black armbands in honour of their late premiership captain, and revered club figure, Bob Davis. So we have the Blues, coming off the bye, up against the undefeated Cats. The same Blues who have lost their last eight to Geelong at Etihad (since 2001) by an average margin of 52 points. So on paper, at least, this shapes as a no-brainer. But we think it will be much closer than that. This Carlton outfit has speed to burn - a commodity in short supply at Catland - and the Cats will be bruised and battered after the Collingwood game last week and perhaps suffering a bit of a letdown. The veterans Mooney and Milburn are likely to miss for Geelong (which, in the context of this game, is no great loss); for the Blues, the forgotten man McLean might come in for the injured Curnow. Under the roof, the Blues will run the Cats ragged, but we think Geelong's class will prevail - just - in the end. Carlton at the line (+14.5 points) looks a good bet.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 6 points
TAB Sportsbet: Carl $2.65, Geel $1.45 

‪St Kilda v Melbourne (Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm)

These two teams are coming off bad losses last week so this shapes as a really important contest. If truth be told, the whole season has been a bust for the Saints so far. Even coach Ross Lyon is seemingly lost for answers. Too many senior players have gone missing, and morale seems shot. So expect Lyon to persevere with the likes of first-year players Arryn Siposs and Jamie Cripps. The Dees have been cursed by injury in recent weeks - Garland and Bail this week joining the long casualty list, as well as the suspended Dunn - and among those sidelined is ruckman Mark Jamar, who leaves a big hole. The Dees were beaten at this ground by nine goals by North last weekend; in fact, their record at Etihad is terrible. The Saints, with Montagna a welcome inclusion, should continue the Dees' Etihad misery - and record just win No.2. Interestingly, the Saints last four games have produced an aggregate points total of 161-170; this was also the same total when they played Melbourne at ES last season. Odds are $6 for that bracket here.   

BPL Tip: St Kilda by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet: StK $1.50, Melb $2.50 

Port Adelaide v Fremantle (AAMI Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm)

A season to forget for Port, who are now concentrating on rebuilding. They face a team on Saturday who have also failed to meet expectations this season. Freo, after a bold showing in 2010, have not hit their stride at all and are coming off two straight defeats since their bye round. In the western derby last weekend, they were outplayed by West Coast even though the Eagles lost Kerr and Embley in the warm-up. Coach Mark Harvey is considering giving mature-age rookie Tendai Mzungu his first run in the AFL this week, while important goalsneak Hayden Ballantyne is also set to return. For Port, Chad Cornes is likely for a recall, which would seem a strange selection move for a team that has to start planning for the future. The Dockers should win this one well, and entrench themselves in the eight.

BPL Tip: Fremantle by 29 points
TAB Sportsbet: Port $2.50, Frem $1.50 

Brisbane v North Melbourne (Gabba, Saturday, 7.40pm)

After eight weeks on the sidelines with multiple facial fractures, Brisbane captain Jonathan Brown finally looks ready to rejoin the fray. Just the Kangas' luck! In Brown's absence, the Lions are winless after eight rounds and have a percentage of 76. Clearly they need him back - although they can't expect him to be at his best straight away. North hasn't won at the Gabba since 2005 but are showing glimpses of form, winning by 10 goals and 7 goals in two of their last three outings (interspersed by a hammering at Geelong). Key backman Nathan Grima broke a finger at training on Tuesday, so that will leave a hole in the North defence. Otherwise, their backline is gelling well - with Thompson, Firrito, Rawlings and McMahon leading the way - and that group should still quell any notion of a Brown-led victory. The Lions will walk a foot taller with their skipper on the field, and will fancy their chances of breaking their drought here - but North's polish should be just enough to get them over the line. Try North with a winning margin of 10-19 (at $7.50) and you might be close to the mark.

BPL Tip: North by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet: Bris $2.00, North $1.75 

Richmond v Essendon (MCG, Saturday, 7.40pm)

The Dreamtime at the ‘G' fixture this year actually shapes as a decent match - unlike many of its predecessors in recent years. In fact, given good weather on Saturday night, they might get 70,000+ to watch James Hird's re-born Essendon take on the much-improved Richmond. Both sides play attractive football - averaging well over 100 points per match each - so it could well be a shootout. The Bombers have lost Hocking to suspension but are rolling along nicely with three straight wins. The Tigers got their comeuppance against the Bulldogs last week but, before that, had been impressive with three consecutive wins of their own. These games are always close: no more than 40 points has separated them in the past 10 encounters. We think Essendon are ‘unders' in this match and we'd be inclined to have a shekel or two on the Tiges at the line (+18.5 points).

BPL Tip: Essendon by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet: Rich $2.80, Ess $1.40 

Collingwood v Adelaide Crows (Etihad Stadium, Sunday, 1.10pm)

Fresh from their first defeat this season, the Magpies will want to get straight back on the winner's list. And against a pretty anaemic Adelaide side, who lost to Melbourne by almost 100 points a fortnight ago, they should do just that. Ruckman Darren Jolly will miss again - which leaves the Pies well short of their best side - but captain Nick Maxwell and Ben Johnson are expected to resume and bolster the defence. The trick for stand-in ruckman Cam Wood will be to give some sort of supply to the Pies' outstanding collection of midfielders - and that should guarantee victory. Interestingly, the Crows have won their last three matches against the Pies at Etihad, so the venue will hold no fear for them. Collingwood has the most potent attack in the league, averaging almost 120 points per game, so it might be worth having a crack at the Pies to be the highest-scoring team for the round at $3.50.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 49 points
TAB Sportsbet: Coll $1.05, Adel $8.50 

Sydney v Hawthorn (SCG, Sunday, 2.10pm)

The Swans are coming off two good wins in the past fortnight and have won their last four against Hawthorn in the close confines of the SCG. It is here that they are at their miserly best, squeezing the life out of opponents and controlling the tempo of the game. (Oddly, though, they lost their first two games at Fortress SCG this year - but against handy sides in Geelong and Carlton). The Hawks had a really encouraging win against St Kilda last week, after being behind by five goals at quarter-time. Rookie Shane Savage featured strongly in the comeback and won a NAB Rising Star nomination as a result. Buddy Franklin had 10 shots at goal and looked dangerous and the Swans will be sweating on who to play on him. His forward line partner, Jarryd Roughead, had to pinch-hit in the ruck last week and if there's one area where the Hawks are vulnerable it is here, so expect a big afternoon from Sydney's Shane Mumford. That also spells good news for Goodes, Kennedy, McGlynn, Bolton and co in the Sydney midfield. A tough one to call, but perhaps the Swans at home by a whisker. Either team to win by 15.5 points or fewer (at $2.80) appeals as a bet.

BPL Tip: Sydney by 7 points
TAB Sportsbet: Syd $1.80, Haw $1.95 

West Coast v Western Bulldogs (Patersons Stadium, Sunday, 2.40pm)

No team has improved more this season than West Coast, who took home the wooden spoon in 2010. With Kennedy, Lynch and Le Cras up forward, Naitanui and Cox in the ruck, and a midfield that boasts Priddis, Embley, Kerr, Rosa and others, the Eagles are developing into a genuinely good side. And they harass and tackle like there's no tomorrow. (Embley and Kerr were late withdrawals last week so will have to prove their fitness.) The Bulldogs have been patchy this season but are coming off a good win over Richmond. They are likely to welcome back Barry Hall, Shaun Higgins and Tom Williams for the trip west - and that's a handy set of ‘ins' at any time. The Eagles have only dropped one game at home this season - and will continue on their winning way on Sunday. Both teams play an attacking style, and (this week) boast strong forward lines, so - assuming it's dry - it might be worth having a crack at a total points score of 211-220 ($15-) or 221+ ($10-).

BPL Tip: West Coast by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet: WC $1.75, WB $2.00

BYE: Gold Coast
BPL RUNNING TALLY: 45