Western Bulldogs v Adelaide (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

When the AFL pencilled this game in for Rd 13, they obviously figured the Bulldogs would be in top-four form and Adelaide would, as many predicted, be the season's big improver. Er, wrong on just about every count. What we have instead is about the most unappetising Friday night fare imaginable: 13th vs 14th, with these two teams coming off four straight losses (and having won six of a possible 22 games this year). One radio station was even inviting listeners to come up with clever ideas for Channel 7 to market the game. The Dogs have lost not just plenty of games but their zing. Where's the on-field leadership? Adam Cooney (knee), Brian Lake (groin) and Barry Hall (ankle) face fitness tests. The Crows have been no less unimpressive. Forward Kurt Tippett (shoulder) is in doubt - and he'd be a big loss if he doesn't come up. The Dogs should win at home, but we reckon the highlights reel might be a short one.

BPL Tip: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WB $1.27, Adel $4.00 

‪Hawthorn v Gold Coast (Saturday, 2.10pm, Aurora Stadium)

Assuming both clubs make it through the plume of volcano ash and get to Tasmania, a one-sided contest awaits. Jarryd Roughead might have gone down with a ruptured Achilles last week but that won't affect the Hawks in this game. They will win and win well, as the suntanned Suns get acclimatized to playing footy in a Tassie winter. Jordan Lisle and David Hale are in line for a recall for the Hawks, while the Suns have chosen to rest their exciting young ruckman Zac Smith. If it's a dry day, Buddy Franklin could well have a day out, as the ball is likely to be pumped towards him repeatedly. Gold Coast has been getting off to tardy starts and if they're well behind at quarter-time here, a major blowout looms. For all that, a start of 70.5 points seems too much.    

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 59 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Haw $1.01, GC $13.00 

Essendon v North Melbourne (Saturday, 2.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

A good old suburban rivalry from the ‘90s gets reignited at Etihad with this fixture, which pits a resurgent Roos (well, two wins in a row) against a flatlining Essendon (well, three defeats in a row.) James Hird flagged selection changes after last week's loss to Freo and midfielders Brent Stanton (shoulder) and Sam Lonergan (illness) will return, as will Heath Hocking from his three-week suspension. It will be interesting to see whether Tom Bellchambers comes back in the team after playing well in the VFL - and whether fellow-tall Paddy Ryder makes way for him. The Kangas (who've lost Lachie Hansen to concussion) are beginning to play some nice footy, with Wells in career-best form, Swallow brilliant in the heavy traffic, and Petrie and Edwards kicking goals. They've lost three or four games that they've led at three-quarter time so their 4-7 win-loss record is not an accurate reflection of their season. We like the roughie in this one.

BPL Tip: North Melbourne by 17 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Ess $1.60, NM $2.25 

Brisbane v Richmond (Saturday, 7.10pm, Gabba)

The fortunes of both teams have headed south in the past few weeks. The Lions were coming off wins over North Melbourne and Adelaide a fortnight ago before copping 10-goal hidings from Sydney and Carlton. Richmond had its campaign deflated up in Darwin to Port Adelaide, just when Tigers fans were starting to dream again of finals action. Winless in three weeks, the Tiges are now a win plus percentage outside the eight. The teams met in Round 6, seven weeks ago, and the Tigers ran all over Brisbane in the last quarter to win, with Foley (40 disposals), Martin (35) and Nahas (26 and three goals) all prominent. Since then, the Lions have regained Jonathan Brown but lost full-back Daniel Merrett (stress fractures in his back), which means there is no obvious match-up for dangerous Richmond full-forward Jack Riewoldt. We think the Tiges will bounce back in this game and get their season back on track.

BPL Tip: Richmond by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Bris $2.15, Rich $1.65 

St Kilda v Geelong (Saturday, 7.10pm, MCG)

Their meeting in round one - when Geelong came from behind to pip the Saints by a point - helped define both clubs' seasons. The Cats have gone to win 11 straight; the Saints have lurched from one sub-par performance to the next. Geelong this week lost arguably its most important player, Joel Selwood, for four matches at the tribunal, which evens things up a little. (Allen Christensen shapes as his likely replacement). Conversely, the Saints' midfield is likely to be boosted by the return of Leigh Montagna from a knee injury. The average margin in the past five games between these sides is just nine points. The Saints have a bye in Round 14; we think they'll throw the kitchen sink at the Cats on Saturday in an effort to get one big scalp under their belt before the break, and their run home to September. If things go their way, they could even pinch a shock win.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 9 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: StK $3.75, Geel $1.25 

Melbourne v Fremantle (Sunday, 1.10pm, MCG)

The maddening Melbourne was on show again last round: fresh from a stirring win over Essendon the previous weekend, the Dees turned up their toes against Collingwood on Monday and crashed to a 15-goal loss. Which Melbourne will turn up this week? Given the match is at the MCG against an interstate opponent - just about their favourite combination - the Dees will probably be all fired up again, and come on all macho. Fremantle midfielder Michael Barlow will almost certainly make his anticipated return from a broken leg after a best afield display in the WAFL, and that's a good-news story. He will immediately step in for injured star David Mundy, but Fremantle will also need to replace goalneak Hayden Ballantyne (hamstring). A tough one to call, because the Dockers are slowly improving. But the continued absence of Aaron Sandilands, and now Mundy, combined with the venue - where the Dockers have lost 10 straight, since early 2007 - tilts the scales the Demons' way. Just.     

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 4 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Melb $1.80, Frem $1.95 

Carlton v Sydney (Sunday, 2.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

These two teams have turned on two fantastic games in recent times: last year's elimination final at ANZ Stadium and then in Rd 6 this year at the SCG. Not sure this one will be quite as close, or gripping. Yes, the Swans will try close the game down and restrict Carlton's run, but they'll have a tough job of it. These Blues are quick, clever and attacking, and I'm not sure Sydney is quite as good as its ladder position suggests. Jarrad Waite (hamstring) and Setanta O'hAilpin (hand) both missed the clash against the Lions, but should be available for selection this week. For Sydney, ruckman Shane Mumford is due to return from injury this week, while Sam Reid - an exciting prospect - won the NAB Rising Star Award nomination. If Carlton can quieten Adam Goodes and Ben McGlynn up forward, they should win this well. 

BPL Tip: Carlton by 31 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Carl $1.25, Syd $3.75 

West Coast v Port Adelaide (Sunday, 2.40pm, Paterson Stadium)

Finally, some good news for Port: skipper Dom Cassisi (tibial fracture) will be recalled after making a successful return in the SANFL on Sunday. His leadership has been sorely missed. But Port this weekend comes up against one of football's more difficult assignments in 2011: West Coast in Perth. Eagles ruckman Dean Cox combined beautifully with Daniel Kerr last week and that centre-square combination, plus Priddis, Embley, Rosa, Shuey and co, will cause plenty of teams headaches in the coming weeks. And teams with much more talent than Port. Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras and Quinten Lynch will benefit from the opportunities presented by their midfield, and should have a field day. In fact, the Coasters could kick the sweep.

BPL Tip: West Coast by 66 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WC $1.05, Port $8.50 

BYE: Collingwood

BPL TALLY: 66