Hawthorn v Essendon (Friday, 7.40pm, MCG)

Shapes as a fascinating match-up: the Hawks without Roughead and the suspended Franklin up against an Essendon side riding a four-match losing streak. (Oh, and these clubs happen to hate each other, too.) The Bombers were good last week against North, and only inaccuracy prevented them from getting a lot closer. Hurley was fantastic at centre half-forward and the Bombers will need him fit (and over thumb and calf problems) if they're to have any chance here. Former Hawk Mark Williams could get his chance with a recall to the misfiring forward line. Franklin usually has a day out against the red-and-black - and kicked the Goal of the Year in Rd 13 last season in an MCG night match - so the Hawks will clearly have to rejiig their forward line in his absence. But we think this is a bridge too far for the Hawks - who've won six of the past seven - and they'll have trouble cobbling together a winning score. The Bombers to cause an upset.

BPL Tip: Essendon by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Haw $1.45, Ess $2.65

‪Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 2.10pm, Metricon Stadium)

This should be a confidence-booster for the Bulldogs who returned to the winner's list (at last) in Round 13. Murphy, Griffen, Giansiracusa and Boyd were all great against Adelaide, but the Dogs will have to do more than that to convince the sceptics about their credentials. Full-forward Barry Hall made the trip up to Queensland with the team (a couple of days early, courtesy of The Plume), so he might make a rare appearance. Gold Coast has been winless since the bye four weeks ago but has shown in patches that they can hold their own against the heavyweights. (For three quarters against West Coast, two against Geelong and two on the weekend against Hawthorn, the young Suns more than held their own.) With rookie sensations Zac Smith and David Swallow both returning from ankle injuries, the Suns are near full-strength and will fancy their chances of giving the Dogs a fright. We think the favourites will win but it won't be the blowout that many expect.

BPL Tip: Western Bulldogs by 35 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: GC $5.00, WB $1.15

Richmond v Melbourne (Saturday, 2.10pm, MCG)

A match between the traditional MCG co-tenants - and on a Saturday afternoon, too. Hard to separate them - as evidenced by the bookies' odds; $1.87 apiece - because they're both capable of scintillating football on their day but are prone to the odd shocker, as well. It's an important game because both sit just outside the top eight - with 5.5 wins - and one team will steal an important advantage over its finals rival. The Demons have the greatest average winning margin in the league, but the second-largest average losing margin, so they're all over the place. Richmond is more steady, coming off a strong win at the Gabba and will relish the chance to play at home after three weeks on the road. Mark Jamar is an important ‘in' for the Dees, if he does in fact make his comeback from injury, and the Tiges will need to replace then suspended Jake King but we're sticking with the more reliable yellow-and-black unit in a close one. If it's dry, we're tipping a free-scoring affair.

BPL Tip: Richmond by 16 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Rich $1.87, Melb $1.87

Sydney v Collingwood (Saturday, 7.10pm, ANZ Stadium)

We can't go past the Pies but it will be interesting to see how Darren Jolly and Dane Swan go after their 10-day high-altitude holiday, sorry, training camp in Arizona over the bye weekend. And Dale Thomas returns from a one-match suspension, so three of their better players won't have had a run since Round 11. On that basis, and the problems faced by 'bye' teams this season, the premiers might take a while to find their feet. But the only thing that will beat Collingwood here is indifference. If they're switched on, we just can't see the Swans being able to shut down their midfield - especially on the wide open spaces of ANZ Stadium - or troubling the Collingwood defence. On top of that, Shane Mumford's suspension leaves a big hole in the ruck. The Swans have comfortably the worst points-for tally of the top 11 teams so might be worth having a crack at them as the lowest scoring team for Rd 14 - at $5.00.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 31 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Syd $5.00, Coll $1.15

Fremantle v Brisbane (Saturday, 5.40pm, Patersons Stadium)

Freo were lamentable against Melbourne at the MCG last week - pathetic even - and the only reason we're tipping them here is because they're at home, and playing the 15th-placed Lions. Their ruckman Aaron Sandilands (toe) is chance to return to the fray after missing four weeks and his importance to the team has been underlined by their ordinary form over the past month. A major reason why the Dockers haven't hit their stride is the form of skipper Matthew Pavlich, who's been well below his best. Freo are due a breakout game and, if they're to be taken at all seriously, must start blowing away sides like Brisbane. The Lions are struggling - and their record on the road in the past 12 months is three wins from 15 starts - and they'll have to rejig their side after Mitch Clark (ankle) and Todd Banfield (hamstring) went down against Richmond. The Dockers will win well, and could even kick the sweep.

BPL Tip: Fremantle by 39 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $1.15, Bris $5.00

Geelong v Adelaide (Sunday, 1.10pm, Skilled Stadium)

Just what Adelaide needs as it attempts to pick up the pieces from a horror year - a trip down to Geelong, where the Cats have won the last 26 games straight. The Crows have the worst attacking record in the league (of the teams that have played 12 games) and the fifth-leakiest defence, so they are in diabolical form. The one thing in their favour this weekend is that the Cats have lost Joel Selwood, Mathew Stokes and Josh Hunt to suspension, while Darren Milburn (Achilles), Jimmy Bartel (concussion) and James Kelly (ankle) are all in doubt. It would be a surprise if they risked any of those three injured players; in fact, there's a fair chance they'll take the opportunity to rest a few others as well. Expect to see a raft of new faces in the blue and white hoops. So the Crows will meet a team who'll be going through the motions and doing just enough to win. For the Cats, it'll be mainly about self-preservation. So try the Crows at the line (+50.5 pts).

BPL Tip: Geelong by 44 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Geel $1.04, Adel $9.05

Carlton v West Coast (Sunday, 2.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

A match that will again focus attention on the win-win 2007 trade of Chris Judd to Carlton and Josh Kennedy to West Coast. The Blues have got the better of the deal so far - but Kennedy is young and improving by the season. He, and the Eagles, may yet have the last laugh. Not this Sunday, though. The Blues are in stellar form and have only lost this season to Collingwood and Geelong. Ruckman Shaun Hampson (knee) was the major casualty to come out of Sunday's win against Sydney and will miss two months but Waite (hamstring), White (knee), O'hAilpin (hand) and Laidler (knee) are all some chance of returning this weekend. Carlton has won the last four against West Coast and hasn't lost to the Sandgropers in Melbourne since 2002. But ... the Eagles are way over the odds at $4.00. If the Blues are too cute and take this game too easily, and Cox, Naitanui and the Eagles' midfield get a sniff, there could be a major upset in the offing.

BPL Tip: Carlton by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Carl $1.22, WC $4.00

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne (Sunday, 4.10pm, AAMI Stadium)

Not exactly a show-stopper this one. In fact, if Port drag more than 18,000 through the gates at AAMI Stadium for this twilight game, they will have done well. Port's form actually hasn't been too bad since their Round 10 win over Richmond and last week they had a meritorious defeat (if there is such a thing) in Perth to West Coast. But they are due a breakout game at home and will be geared up for this one. Steven Salopek played well for Glenelg and could be recalled while David Rodan starred with six goals for Norwood and should be named. For North, brilliant young ruckman Todd Goldstein is in doubt with an ankle injury and the structure of the side will be upset if he's unable to play. That will mean Drew Petrie and Cam Pedersen have to share the ruckwork, robbing the forward line of much of its potency. Lachie Hansen returns from concussion which will help in that regard, but he's an erratic talent at the best of times. Expect a strong showing from the Power and this game to be much closer than many expect.

BPL Tip: North Melbourne by 9 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Port $2.65, North $1.45

Bye: St Kilda
BPL Tipping Tally: 74 (after eight last week!)