Western Bulldogs v Melbourne (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

The Dogs would have had this pencilled in as a win at the start of the year. But, after their horror first 14 rounds, they enter the match as underdogs, pardon the pun. Their unconvincing win over Gold Coast last week was just their fifth of the season. And they have now lost Justin Sherman for four weeks after his racial vilification case. Barry Hall was subbed off in the third quarter last week with slight ankle soreness so there must be some doubt about him playing; Jarrad Grant shapes as a possible inclusion. The Dees, by contrast, are traveling along beautifully. Ever since they were accused of playing ‘bruise-free' footy by Carlton in Round 10, they've been excellent (with the notable exception of the Collingwood game). And when they're on a roll, there are few teams as irresistible as this vibrant young outfit. The only question mark against them is Etihad, where they have lost 10 in a row. Still, if they're ever going to break that hoodoo, what better time than this week - in front of a national TV audience?

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 40 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WB $1.95, Melb $1.80

Richmond v Carlton (Saturday, 2.10pm, MCG)

A traditional rivalry in a traditional timeslot. Both teams hit major speed bumps last week, Richmond going down to Melbourne and Carlton having a rare defeat to West Coast. Blues coach Brett Ratten said it was a loss the team had to have because it will bring them back to earth. Tigers full forward Jack Riewoldt continued his run of ordinary form and must be due a big one soon. For the Blues, Chris Judd had just 17 possessions in an unusually quiet display against his old side. The biggest blow to Carlton was the loss of ultra-dependable full-back Michael Jamison who needed surgery to his left knee this week and will be out for four weeks. Simon White looms as a possible replacement. Mitch Robinson was a late withdrawal from that team but should be fit, while Jarrad Waite must also be a strong chance to return from a hamstring injury. The Tigers welcome back their little man with a big personality, Jake King, and his tenacity in the forward line was sorely missed last week. We expect the Blues to hit back hard this week, but there is a nagging worry about Jamison's absence and how that could open the way for a breakout Riewoldt performance.

BPL Tip: Carlton by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Rich $3.75, Carl $1.25

Fremantle v Gold Coast (Saturday, 1.10pm, Patersons Stadium)

Another injury blow for the Dockers with the loss of ruckman Aaron Sandilands (again) to the same toe problem. History shows the Dockers don't fare well without their big man but they still should have too much firepower for the fledgling Suns on Saturday. Fremantle sits in seventh place but its percentage is poor (93.69) because its defence is the leakiest of the top eight sides. Gold Coast finished last week's game strongly against the Western Bulldogs, kicking five goals to one in the last term to fall 22 points short. Had they not let themselves down in front of goal in the first half, kicking 5.10, the Suns might have got a lot closer. Still, the midfield is creating plenty of chances for the forwards - last week Michael Rischitelli had 27 possessions, Gary Ablett (24) and NAB AFL Rising Star nominee David Swallow (21) - so one day soon that will help deliver them a big scalp. Can't see that being this week in Perth, though.

BPL Tip: Fremantle by 40 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $1.09, GC $ 6.50

Essendon v Geelong (Saturday, 7.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

Will this be the roughhouse affair that some are predicting? Geelong is still smarting at the less-than-transparent way its former coach Mark Thompson left the club late last year - to join James Hird panel of assistants at Windy Hill. It appeared that Thompson had been in dialogue with the Bombers for much of the 2010 season, and not told his employers about it. That has rankled many, including several Cats players. Is it any surprise that many were rested last week, in preparation for this game? As many as six first-choice players will come back into the team: Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Mathew Stokes, Josh Hunt, Brad Ottens and Nathan Vardy. So the Cats are primed for a big one this week. Not sure about the physical stuff: expect the only blood shed to be on the scoreboard where it could get ugly. Essendon is coming off five straight defeats - who'd have thought after their early barnstorming run? - and were beaten by a Buddy-less Hawthorn by 11 goals last week. Confidence is down and captain Jobe Watson (hamstring), Sam Lonergan (knee) and David Myers (hamstring) have been added to the injury list. On the positive side, no-one knows the Cats better than Thompson and another defector Brendan McCartney, and that's got to count for something. A long shot but have a dollar on the high-low scoring double of Geelong-Essendon at $20.00.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 50 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Ess $6.50, Geel $1.09

Adelaide v Sydney (Saturday, 7.10pm, AAMI Stadium)

The Crows are tracking for their worst season in the AFL. And need five more wins this year to avoid that ignominious result. After six straight defeats, confidence is at an all-time low even though coach Neil Craig remains relentlessly - some would say, misguidedly - upbeat. The forward structure needs to be re-arranged so Kurt Tippett is given a hand - and not fighting two or more opponents - in front of goal. Still, the Crows fared well at the stoppages against Geelong last week, and that will give them some confidence. Sydney has suffered consecutive (but honourable) losses to top-four teams Carlton and Collingwood, dropping them to sixth on the ladder and in the ruck now with Freo, Melbourne and North. Kieren Jack will probably miss with an ankle but Ted Richards is a chance to come back in. The Swans continue to have problems kicking goals and their points-for tally of 1084 is the worst of the top 12 teams. We think an upset is in the offing here, the Swans suffering a letdown after two big build-ups and the Crows ready (at last) to perform for their coach, and fans.

BPL Tip: Adelaide by 9 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Adel $2.80, Syd $1.40

Brisbane v Port Adelaide (Sunday, 1.10pm, Gabba)

Not a game to set the heart racing. In fact, this contest between 15th and 16th has very little to recommend it, apart from Jonathan Brown's appearance, and is as far removed from the heady days of 2004 grand final week as you could imagine. Still, one team will get the chance to score their third win for the season, and move a game clear of the wooden spoon zone. Daniel Rich has gone down with a stress fracture in his foot, which robs the Lions of an in-form midfielder but, on the bright side, Jed Adcock will slot back in nicely after injury. For Port, retiring ruckman Dean Brogan (hamstring) and defender Jasper Pittard (hamstring) have both been ruled out. Brisbane have at least been competitive the last two weeks, and their defence is slightly sturdier than Port's. And they do have the big No.16 at centre half-forward, so they should win and win well.

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 47 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Bris $1.36, Port $3.00

Collingwood v Hawthorn (Sunday, 2.10pm, MCG)

The Hawks are the one team that can lay claim to being Collingwood's nemesis. They've won five of the last six against the Pies, and their average winning margin has been 35 points. Buddy Franklin, who returns this week from suspension, has kicked 29 goals in his past five outings against the premiers and he, along with Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell, invariably have a day out. But the Hawks have been cruelled by injury, with Brad Sewell, Cyril Rioli and Jordan Lewis (suspended) now joining Jarryd Roughead and others on the sidelines. The Magpies will need to make at least one change to the side that edged out Sydney with Alan Didak subbed out of the game with a calf injury. Ruckman Darren Jolly made a successful return in the VFL on the weekend and is likely to return for a rare appearance this year. Collingwood took a long time to get going after the bye/Arizona trip last week, but should have brushed out the cobwebs now. Hawthorn, meanwhile, was great without Franklin and Roughead when they demolished the Bombers. But given their fresh injuries, this will be a whole new challenge, and one they probably won't be able to meet.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 38 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Coll $1.30, Haw $3.30

North Melbourne v St Kilda (Sunday, 4.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

Interesting that St Kilda is favourite for this game, despite the fact they're coming off a bye, have only won four games for the year and the Kangas are coming off a four-game winning streak themselves. Still, the Saints have won three of the last five and have a 4-1 win-loss record against the Roos back to 2007 - maybe that's the reason. The Kangas lost Sam Wright for the season with a shoulder injury, and his place will probably be taken by Ben McKinley, while ruckman Hamish McIntosh was pleased to get through his first game in 10 months following achilles tendon surgery. So their injury list is suddenly looking very manageable. The Saints apparently took advantage of the bye to get away and clear their heads after a shocking first 13 rounds. With Nick Riewoldt down on form, and no-one stepping up to help him, the Saints' problems in attack are obvious: their points-for tally of 948 is the second-worst of the 17 teams (behind only Gold Coast). And that's a damning statistic. With Grima to play on Riewoldt, and Petrie in sublime form at the other end, just can't see the Roos losing this one (unlike the bookies). Their form since a one-point loss to Sydney in Round 10 has been faultless and they should make it five wins on end here.

BPL Tip: North Melbourne by 17 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: NM $2.00, St K $1.75

BYE: West Coast
BPL TIPPING TALLY: 79