''Geelong loses its first game of the season - after 15 rounds - and suddenly the obituaries are being written,'' writes BackPageLead's punting pro, The Shark, in his analysis of Friday night's match against West Coast in Perth.

''Well, this time I reckon the doomsayers are right. I reckon the Cats have used up their nine lives, I reckon there are too many old fellas in the side and I reckon this week the West Coast Eagles will feast on these tired old moggies.

''The big Friday night match will be played on the huge expanse of Paterson's Stadium (aka Subiaco Oval), and Geelong's older, slower players - Darren Milburn, Cameron Ling, Matthew Scarlett, Brad Ottens and co - will find the going tough. Ling, Milburn and Ottens are plodding around like carthorses at the moment: the prospect of those wide open spaces at PS must be giving them nightmares.''

Well, that's a fine appraisal for a team that won 13 straight before Saturday night's stumble against Essendon. And a team that's won two of the past four premierships, too. Short memories, or what?

Not only that, but The Shark is tipping an Eagles' blowout - by 39.5 points or more. Sheesh. No respect at all.

But hang on, what this - Wayne Carey is agreeing with The Shark and also reckons the Cats are set for their second defeat in a row.

In his weekly BPL Vidcast, Carey says he's leaning towards the Eagles because of the way they play Paterson's Stadium: ''West Coast play the ground so well with their two key forwards .... so I'm favouring them and I know Geelong have only lost one game but perhaps they're going through a little bit of a flat spot.

''Subiaco Oval (Paterson's Stadium) is the best ground in the world to play as a key forward - if you can run. If you can't run - and you're a bit stagnant, and haven't got that fitness base - then there's no point. Because you need to be able to run into those open spaces: it's really about workrate on that ground.''

Carey said either Cam Mooney or Tom Hawkins, who both played well in the reserves last week, were likely to be recalled for the Eagles game but wondered whether they had the fitness base to do all the running that was required. 

Click here to view Carey's Vidcast in full .....