West Coast v Geelong (Friday, 6.40pm, Paterson's Stadium) 

A big game for both clubs - West Coast to truly establish its premiership credentials and Geelong to get back on the winner's list - and clearly the match of the round. The Eagles have only lost once at home this season - to Sydney in Rd 3 - so are a formidable force at home, where they use the wide open spaces well. While they've yet to recapture their red-hot form of Round 9, when they thrashed the Western Bulldogs by 123 points at Paterson's Stadium, the Eagles have been solid nonetheless. They'll miss Quinten Lynch through suspension, which robs the forward line of a reliable goalkicker, and the injured Sam Butler. The most intriguing battle will be in the ruck where Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui could jump all over Brad Ottens, who is starting to show definite signs of wear and tear, and give West Coast first use of the ball, through Kerr, Priddis and co. After its shock loss to Essendon last week, Geelong will toy with the idea of bringing back Tom Hawkins or Cam Mooney into its forward structure but the accent on running and mobility might mean both players miss out. The good news is that Joel Corey and Travis Varcoe will definitely come back into the side. This is one of the toughest assignments for a visiting side and, while Geelong will be all fired up, we think West Coast's run, youth, speed and athleticism might hold sway, consigning the Cats to their second straight defeat. 

BPL TIP: West Coast by 14 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WC $2.00, Geel $1.75  

‪Hawthorn v Brisbane (Saturday, 2.10pm, Aurora Stadium)

The Lions will leave the balmy climes of Brisbane and get the shock of their lives when they get out of the plane in almost-Arctic Launceston. Michael Voss's boys scraped home for a win against 16th-placed Port at the Gabba last week, having trailled for most of the match, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of their form. Interestingly, the last three contests between these two sides have been at Aurora, the Hawks winning two of them by 79 points (last year) and 61 points. But the big question ahead of this match surrounds the fitness of Lance Franklin, who rolled an ankle against Collingwood last week - and the Hawks' injury list in general. A decision will be made late in the week on Franklin's availablity. But if the big No.23 can't play, and Roughead and Rioli are also missing from the forward line, that casts quite a different complexion on the game. The Hawks also lost big man Jordan Lisle with a fracture cheekbone last week, so their ruck stocks are depleted as well, while Chance Bateman (ankle) will be tested. Despite being down to the bare bones of their playing list, and even if Franklin is ruled out, Hawthorn should have enough class to get over the line here. Just.

BPL TIP: Hawthorn by 17 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Haw $1.08, Bris $7.00

Gold Coast v Sydney (Saturday, 7.10pm, Metricon Stadium)

The Suns have been starting games well and invariably been in contention at half time, before falling away in the second half - not surprising given their youth and inexerience. But we fancy they might be competitive for a bit longer than that against the Swans, who are coming off a surprise defeat to Adelaide (their third loss in a row). The Swans, as we've mentioned before, like to close the game down and they do this best on smaller, slower grounds where they can get their opponent in clinches. But it'll be hard to catch some of the Gold Coast speedsters on the hard, fast outfield at Metricon Stadium, so we think the home side might give a bit of cheek. Sydney could get back Kieren Jack and Nick Malceski, two valuable 'ins', while the Suns will hope Michael Rischitelli is over his hamstring injury and available. The experienced, hard-bodied Daniel Harris is a possible inclusion against Sydney's tough midfield. The Swans will be fired up to perform after a poor few weeks and their experience - plus Adam Goodes - will get them that drought-breaking win. But not after a few early problems.   

BPL TIP: Sydney by 24 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: GC $5.00, Syd $1.15

Essendon v Richmond (Saturday, 7.10pm, MCG)

A reprise of the Dreamtime match from just seven weeks ago (won thrillingly by the Tigers) or, as some know this fixture, the Clash of the Sashes. Both sides have fallen away since that Saturday night in May - Essendon racking up five straight defeats until the momentous and memorable win over Geelong last week; Richmond hitting the skids after their defeat to Port in Round 10, culminating in a horror loss to Carlton last week. The Bombers are still without captain Jobe Watson (and now Andrew Welsh) and are a long way from full strength but if they can play with the intensity they showed against the Cats, then they'll win every week. The problem is, they can't. And if there's one thing to rouse the Tigers from their winter hibernation, it's the sight of a red-and-black Bombers' jumper. So this should be a tight-fought affair. But the Tigers' backline remains a concern - the 1577 points it has conceded is the third-worst in the league - and against the free-scoring Bombers, that might prove their undoing. Damien Hardwick will be keen to expunge the memory of last week's debacle as quickly as possible, and we think Richmond will bolt out of the gates - before slowly being reeled in.   

BPL TIP: Essendon by 21 points 
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Ess $1.50, Rich $2.50

Collingwood v North Melbourne (Sunday, 1.10pm, MCG)

The Roos were disappointing last week, blowing a great chance to get into the top eight by losing to the pedestrian St Kilda. So they'll be keen to atone for that. When these two teams met at Etihad in Round 2, the Kangas were simply smashed by the premiers, underlining their lack of poise and self-belief against the best sides. But that has changed as the season's gone on and we can expect a more spirited performance this time from Brad Scott's boys. Collingwood, of course, has gone from strength to strength, surviving a scare against Sydney after the bye but generally obliterating everyone in its path - including Hawthorn last week. The loss of Chris Dawes for six weeks will weaken their forward line and put more pressure on Travis Cloke as the key forward but the Pies have the most potent attack in the comp, so it shouldn't hurt them too much. At the other end, Roos' full-forward Drew Petrie was triple-teamed by St Kilda last week and yet the North players - mystifyingly - still kicked it to him. Hopefully, Scott has come up with a Plan B this week - and one that doesn't centre around the flaky Lindsay Thomas - so that Pedersen or Hansen is allowed to give Petrie a hand. The Pies also have the meanest defence in the league and if North is to give itself a chance, it'll need more than one avenue to goal. We think the Roos will be surprisingly competitive in this one.

BPL TIP: Collingwood by 25 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Coll $1.08, North $7.00

Port Adelaide v St Kilda (Sunday, 2.40pm, AAMI Stadium)

Port was good last week against Brisbane at the Gabba and probably should have won. But having led by 20 points in the third term, they came to a screeching halt in the last - a worrying sign in many of their games. They come up against a St Kilda side that's finally finding its rhythm after a shocking start to the year. And in their encouraging win over North Melbourne last week, many of the stars shone - Riewoldt, Goddard and Dal Santo among them. They do play the most turgid brand of football in the competition - an absolute eyesore, to be honest - but once they get back into the winning groove, perhaps Ross Lyon will allow his players to express themselves more. And that inability to score freely will always give opponents a chance, even ones as modestly talented as Port. The Saints have won four of their past six and should add to that tally on Sunday, but Port will be motivated over its next eight rounds to get out of the wooden spoon zone - they currently sit in 16th spot with two wins, and just above Gold Coast on percentage. And they'll understand if they can put 15 goals or more past the Saints, they're a good chance at winning.

BPL TIP: St Kilda by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Port $3.75, St Kilda $1.25

Western Bulldogs v Carlton (Sunday, 4.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

Another game in this round where the result looks foregone but the outsider holds some appeal. Carlton atoned for its defeat to West Coast a fortnight ago with a 100-point defeat of Richmond, so they made light of Michael Jamison's absence at full-back and the various other injury concerns they have with a barnstorming win. Lachie Henderson's effort as stand-in full-back on Jack Riewoldt was outstanding and he looms as a key player over the coming weeks. Ed Curnow (quad), Nick Duigan (calf) and Setanta O'hAilpin face fitness tests ahead of this twilight clash while Simon White will miss after picking up a hamstring injury against the Tiges. The Bulldogs - a bit like the Saints - are working their way back into form after a terrible start to the season and have won three straight. They've got pretty much a full squad to pick from and will consider promoting Tom Liberatore and Brian Lake, who kicked three goals in the VFL after spending the entire game in the forward line. The Dogs love playing at Etihad and won this corresponding match last year by 70 points, so they're not without a chance. But (there's always a but) there's probably not quite enough evidence for us to tip the upset.  

BPL TIP: Carlton by 20 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WB $3.30, Carl $1.30

BPL RUNNING TALLY: 84
BYE: Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne