Adelaide v Essendon (Friday, 8.10pm, AAMI Stadium)

Not exactly a ball-burster to start the round, largely thanks to another tepid season from the promise-much, deliver-little Crows. But their good win over Sydney in the wet at their last start (before last weekend's bye) will give them some confidence. And they meet a team, Essendon, which has hardly been the model of consistency. So Adelaide will give itself some chance of an upset. But the Bombers' two good wins - over Geelong and Richmond - in the past fortnight has got them firing again. Still, they'll need to get over their travel issues - they've won three of 17 matches at AAMI Stadium since 2000, and last beat a team in Adelaide in 2007 - if they're to win. And they're likely to be without Cale Hooker and Jobe Watson for one more week. Essendon assistant coach (one of the many) Simon Goodwin was an Adelaide stalwart, and would have played alongside many in the Crows team tonight, so he'll have provided James Hird with some good intelligence. That, the Crows' unreliability and the fact they're coming off a bye means we're sticking with the Bombers.

BPL Tip: Essendon by 16 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Adel $2.25, Ess $1.60

‪Richmond v Gold Coast (Saturday, 2.10pm, Cazaly's Stadium)

The first of two games this weekend played in exotic venues, as the AFL gospel continues to be spread around the country. (This game, the first home-and-away fixture to be played in Cairns, will be a pre-cursor to Saturday's match in Darwin between Melbourne and Port.) The Tigers sold this home game for a swag of money but they'll be hoping it doesn't produce the same result as their match in Darwin earlier in the year, when they surprisingly lost to Port. In fact, that result sparked a run of poor form from the Tiges who have tumbled from finals contender to also-rans. Last weekend's defeat to Essendon was their fourth in the past five games, and it came after they had led by 23 points in the third quarter - before conceding the final 10 goals of the game. Gold Coast, meanwhile, is tweaking its lineup each week and trying to settle on a team for the future. Champion and captain Gary Ablett is some chance to play after scans revealed there was no structural damage to his right knee - and he'll have to make an appearance if the Suns are to pull off an upset here. But the new boys kicked just four goals against Sydney at Metricon Stadium last week, are still finding their way, and we can't see Richmond letting this one slip.

BPL Tip: Richmond by 27 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Rich $1.11, GC $6.00

Carlton v Collingwood (Saturday, 2.10pm, MCG)

The AFL's great traditional rivals meet at a very traditional timeslot and venue: Saturday afternoon at the MCG. Already, tickets have sold out and Channel 10 is covering the game live. But the losses of Jarrad Waite (hip) and Andrew Carrazzo (calf) will have tempered some of the excitement of Blues' fans. Those setbacks come straight after injuries to other important key position players - full-back Michael Jamison, ruckman Shaun Hampson and forward Setanta O'hAilpin, so the Blues are in the wars. The two teams come into the game on the back of very different form: Collingwood re-claimed top spot from Geelong with its 117-point belting of North Melbourne last weekend (when Dane Swan looked to be back to his best), while Carlton suffered its second loss in three weeks when the Bulldogs came from behind to snare a 27-point win. The Blues had just one bad quarter - the second - when these two teams met in round 3, but otherwise matched it with the premiers. Still, with their injury problems, lack of tall timber and Collingwood's sky-high confidence, we just can't go past the Pies.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 42 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Carl $6.00, Coll $1.11

St Kilda v West Coast (Saturday, 7.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

This is one of those games where the venue means everything. In Perth, you wouldn't have give St Kilda much of a hope. Here, at Etihad, where they can close the game down and execute their ‘tempo' footy, the Saints are a much better chance. In fact, they've been installed by TAB Sportsbet as favourites, which seems a little strange, given that West Coast beat Carlton - a stronger opponent than St Kilda - at this ground only two weeks ago, and accounted for table-topping Geelong last week. Anyway, the Saints have struck a vein of form, it's true, winning three of the last four and having their better players stamping their authority on matches at last. But we're still not convinced they're approaching anything like their best form. They Saints have passed 100 points just three times this season and continue to have problems posting winning scores. West Coast know if they kick 14 or 15 goals, they're in with a good chance of winning. The visitors have virtually no injuries to speak of, lots of their best players in form, can score freely, have a match-winning ruck combination in Cox and Naitanui (vs McEvoy) and have shown they can win at this ground. We like them at $2.15.

BPL Tip: West Coast by 11 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: St K $1.65, WC $2.15

Melbourne v Port Adelaide (Saturday, 8.10pm, TIO Stadium)

A week in which the Scully-to-GWS speculation was again ramped up, dominating the sports news for days, proving an unwelcome distraction for Dean Bailey and his troops. Melbourne are coming off the bye, so expect them to take a while to find their feet - especially in the unfamiliar surrounds of TIO Stadium in Darwin. Port had a great result against Richmond at this ground in round 10, stopping the Tiges in their tracks, and have been training in a heat chamber in Adelaide for the past month to help maintain its edge in the Top End. Still, Melbourne won't be overly fazed by the venue: they beaten Port by a point at TIO in round nine last season. Until their Friday night hammering by the Western Bulldogs at their last start, the Dees were traveling along nicely and proved that when they got a run-on, they were very hard to stop, racking up huge scores against Richmond, Freo and Adelaide. We think they'll be too even across the ground and, while they might concede an early lead, should finish all over the struggling Power.

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 25 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Melb $1.22, Port $4.00

Sydney v Fremantle (Sunday, 1.10pm, SCG)

The Swans snapped a three-game losing streak with a comfortable 70-point win over Gold Coast last week. But their form against top-eight sides has not been great so this match represents a great opportunity against the seventh-placed Dockers. And it's at their favourite venue - the small, cramped, claustrophobic SCG where they can put the clamp on opponents and not let go. Freo had been riding a nine-game losing streak here, until their six-goal win here last year. Michael Barlow looks like returning for the Dockers for his second game of the season, but the visitors will again be without their key man, Aaron Sandilands. The Swans will be hoping their extractor, Jude Bolton, gets over a knee niggle. This shapes as an important game - sixth v seventh - because Essendon and the Western Bulldogs lurk just below these two teams on the ladder. Fremantle is coming off the bye and meets a team that is always difficult to beat at the SCG. Expect a low-scoring affair - a dour slog even - with the Swans to prevail. Take either team to win by under 15.5 points at $3.10.

BPL Tip: Sydney by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Syd $1.25, Frem $3.75

Brisbane v Geelong (Sunday, 2.10pm, Gabba)

Could be a more interesting contest than it appears on paper. Geelong ruckman Brad Ottens is suspended for a week, leaving rookie Nathan Vardy to shoulder much of the ruckload. The Cats are coming off two straight defeats, having started the year with 13 wins on the trot, so their confidence might have taken a bit of a jolt. We think, for those reasons, Brisbane is way over the odds at $7.00. Sure, the Lions are no-one's idea of a good side but if they can take advantage of Ottens' absence, jump to an early lead, and Jonathan Brown has that breakout game he's due for, who knows? I know, that's probably pie-in-the-sky stuff. The more likely scenario? The Cats, who welcome back Joel Selwood after a four-week suspension, will make Brisbane pay for their recent run of outs and mercilessly grind their injury-hit opposition into the Gabba mud. And without Daniel Merrett to hold the Brisbane backline together, the Cats will go on a scoring rampage. That's probably more like how it'll pan out.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 38 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Bris $7.00, Geel $1.08

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (Sunday, 4.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

An important game for both sides: it gives North a chance to show a bit of backbone after their gutless display against Collingwood; and the Bulldogs to continue their recent encouraging run and establish their finals credentials. The Kangas look like losing skipper Brent Harvey with a broken thumb but that's not necessarily the great loss that many are predicting. What the Roos need is a bit of grunt in the midfield and some precision kicking to the forwards. Their forward-50 entries last week against the Pies weren't too bad; the nett return of three goals was pathetic. With Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd and Ryan Griffen back in top form, the Bullies' midfield is once again firing. They've scored four wins in a row, the best of them against Carlton last week. So they're flying and will fancy their chances gainst the Roos, who they beat by 12 goals - twice - last season. But coach Brad Scott laid it on the line to the Roos' players this week and gave them an absolute rocket. We think they'll respond with a big game -  defying the pundits, and the odds-makers - and put the Dogs back in their kennel.

BPL Tip: North Melbourne by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: NM $2.80, WB $1.40

BPL TIPPING TALLY: 90
Bye: Hawthorn