St Kilda v Adelaide (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

The portents for Neil Craig's men in this round-opener are not good. The Crows have not won at Etihad Stadium in their last seven attempts, and have in fact lost their last 13 matches in Victoria, going back to Round 22, 2009. They're finding it hard enough to win at home; what chance have they got at a resurgent St Kilda's fortress? Still, the visitors have shown, against Collingwood, Essendon and others, that they can be competitive for three quarters before falling away badly. And their tally of four wins for the season is lamentable, which could well cost Craig his job at year's end. The Saints, by contrast, have won six of their past eight and have Goddard, Montagna and dal Santo firing again. Only the season-ending injury to James Gwilt this week has dampened spirits at the club. (Jason Blake is in line to replace him). These two teams play some of the most unattractive football in the comp, so don't expect a highlight reel here. The Saints should prevail in a low-scoring slog. Their Rd 6 match yielded 161 points in Adelaide; we think the total will be skinnier again this time around.  

‪BPL Tip: St Kilda by 23 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: StK $1.10, Adel $6.25 

North Melbourne v Brisbane (Saturday, 2.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

The Kangaroos righted their season last weekend with a fantastic win over the Bulldogs, and will be expected to account for Brisbane at the same venue this weekend. The Lions, of course, lost their captain Jonathan Brown for the season after another horrific facial injury last weekend. And big man Mitch Clark is also in doubt after being hurt in that same collision with his skipper. So the visitors will be undermanned, and underdogs. But they were competitive for three quarters against Geelong last week and haven't been playing that badly. Their first win of the season, it should be remembered, was scored against North in round 9, so they'll give themselves a chance of an upset here. The Roos, however, have the incentive of a finals spot to play for. With Ziebell, Swallow and Wells all playing impressive footy in the midfield, and Petrie usually damaging up forward, we think the Roos will be too strong, and have too much to play for. North was the high-scoring team last week; give them a chance to go back-to-back - at $5.00.  

BPL Tip: North Melbourne by 28 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: NM $1.10, Bris $6.25 

Sydney v Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 2.10pm, SCG)

Sydney has lost four matches at the SCG this season, an astonishing tally given how much of a fortress it has been for them over the years. Last week's defeat to Fremantle was probably the most surprising of the lot. So the Swans are in a rut - losing four of the past five - and that's partly because they can't post competitive scores. Their average points-for tally of 83 is among the worst in the league and means opponents often only have to play well for a quarter or so to win. Midfield titan Jude Bolton will return this week to give them a bit of spark. The Bulldogs went down surprisingly to North last week after a mini, mid-season revival, and many of their better players were unsighted. And this week, Barry Hall announced his imminent retirement, so will be playing his final game at the SCG, where he'll farewell the club he captained to the 2005 premiership. This is a 50-50 proposition but we'll give the Swans one more chance. They have an opportunity to make a statement and get back on the winner's list and, in the tight confines of the SCG, we think their midfield workhorses will be too strong and tough for the Dogs - in a tight, low-scoring affair.

BPL Tip: Sydney by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Syd $1.50, WB $2.50 

Gold Coast v Collingwood (Saturday, 7.10pm, Metricon Stadium)

The original case of the men versus the boys. If Collingwood fielded a full team here, and was switched on, this could get really ugly. Which is why the line has been set by the TAB at an amazing 80.5 points. But you can bet the Pies will take the opportunity to rest a few players and just do enough to win. Alan Didak, for example, might be given another week to rest his calf. The Suns charged home to score their third victory of the season last week - against a hapless Richmond - and ran Geelong close at Metricon Stadium a few weeks ago, so they'll definitely put up some resistance. Especially if the Pies take the foot off the pedal for too long. But Collingwood in second gear is still a match for most sides, especially ones appearing in their first season of AFL footy. Collingwood face Essendon in round 19 at the MCG and will be keeping its powder dry for that one, we suspect. Because of that, take Gold Coast at the line (+80.5 points) at $1.90; that's a heck of a headstart.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 55 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: GC $13.00, Coll $1.01 

Essendon v Carlton (Saturday, 7.10pm, MCG)

An old-fashioned rivalry which pits a resurgent Essendon (three straight wins) against a faltering Carlton (three losses from four games). The Blues' troubles began as soon as they lost full-back Michael Jamison and, more recently, full-forward Jarrad Waite. The structure and fluency which marked their early-season form has (unsurprisingly) all but disappeared with the absence of those two key men. They can expect, however, to regain Setanta O'hAilpin after five weeks out with a hand injury, which will give Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and co some cause for optimism. Essendon, meanwhile, will rush captain Jobe Watson back into the side after several weeks on the sidelines with a hamstring injury. The Blues have won just one of the past eight against their great rival (who always seem to lift for this fixture) and we think - in the absence of Jamison and Waite - they'll struggle again. Their last meeting resulted in a draw; we're tipping the Bombers in another close one. 

BPL Tip: Essendon by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Ess $2.80, Carl $1.40 

Geelong v Richmond (Sunday, 1.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

Just what Richmond needs: a trip to Etihad Stadium to play Geelong, a team it has beaten just once in their past 14 meetings, stretching all the way back to the year 2000. As if getting beaten by Gold Coast at Cairns wasn't painful enough. Now they'll have to saddle up for what has become a routine flogging against the Cats. Given the Tigers' woeful form in recent weeks, it is likely there will be bloodshed at the selection table this week, and the likes of Mitch Morton and Brad Miller will be considered for inclusion. The Cats, it is true, haven't exactly been flying either, losing two matches in a row before an uninspired effort against Brisbane last week. But there were a few bright spots: Podsiadly's eight goals, Tom Hawkins form in his first match back and the fact Joel Selwood got a game under his belt. If the Cats are switched on, and motivated, they could really do some damage. If they're in self-preservation mode, it'll be a lot closer. But they'll be looking for a morale boost after three ordinary weeks, so we're tipping a blowout.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 65 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Geel $1.07, Rich $7.50 

Melbourne v Hawthorn (Sunday, 2.10pm, MCG)

Coming off the bye, and a couple of ordinary performances before that, Hawthorn will be worried about this one. Yes, the Hawks regain a raft of good players - Sewell, Rioli, Bateman and Lewis among them - and, yes, they have won the last seven against Melbourne by an average margin of 39 points. But we think they're way too short in the betting at $1.22. The Demons sit in ninth place and have shown that, when they get build up some momentum, they're hard to stop. They can post some big numbers. The big question will be how they recover after their trip to the tropics in Darwin, where the humidity was huge, and the temperature 28 degrees. For all those concerns, we think the Dees are over the odds at $4.00 and will give a good account of themselves. 

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Melb $4.00, Haw $1.22 

Fremantle v West Coast (Sunday, 2.40pm, Patersons Stadium)

This shapes as a fascinating western Derby and probably the match of the round. After their courageous win in Sydney last weekend, and the fact they've battled so manfully against their plague of injuries, Fremantle is now being spoken of as a top-four smokey. And if the Dockers can account for West Coast on Sunday, they'll draw level on points with their great rival. While they added Roger Hayden to their injury list this week, Freo is looking at fielding one of its best teams of the season. But it seems unlikely they'll risk ruckman Aaron Sandilands, who's missed six of the past seven with a bung toe, and that tilts the balance West Coast's way. With Cox and Naitanui dominant in a losing side last week, we think that pair will give the Eagles' midfield enough supply of the ball to feed Kennedy, LeCras and co, and create a winning score. West Coast won this fixture by five goals in round 8; it'll be much closer this time around.

BPL Tip: West Coast by 14 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Frem $2.65, WC $1.45 

BPL Tipping Tally: 95
Bye: Port Adelaide