North Melbourne v Carlton (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

‪North won this corresponding Friday night match last year by 29 points in what was their most complete performance of the season. Lindsay Thomas kicked 7.5 from a forward pocket and the Roos ran riot. This time around, there is no Thomas - who's back in the reserves learning how to kick straight - and Carlton are flying. Their 74-point hammering of Essendon last week was a highlight reel from beginning to end: Chris Judd's game, Andrew Walker's mark, Eddie Betts' eight goals. So the Blues sit in fourth spot with 11.5 wins, in spite of a long injury list all season, and deserve to be there. But we think the Kangas, who've won six of their last eight, might be over the odds here. Yes, they've had their troubles with top-four teams over the last 18 months but Carlton, we'd venture to say, are no Collingwood or Geelong. The Roos have no injuries to speak of, seem to match up well against the Blues (having won seven of the past eight) and Brad Scott will have drummed into his players the need for a creditable performance against a top side. Not sure North can win but they'll give a good account of themselves.  

BPL Tip: Carlton by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: NM $3.50, Carl $1.28 

Western Bulldogs v West Coast (Saturday, 2.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

The memory of Round 9 alone should spark some life into the Bulldogs here. For that was the match - against West Coast in Perth - where the Dogs were whipped by 123 points, Josh Kennedy kicked 10 goals for the Eagles and Rodney Eade said later it was his worst loss as an AFL coach. The last quarter was especially embarrassing: 10.4 to 0.0. So the Bullies get a chance at redemption here. Unfortunately, they've been hit by a spate of injuries and niggles which might spike their guns. Adam Cooney is likely to miss with his on-going knee problem while Dale Morris, Shaun Higgins, Lindsay Gilbee, Liam Jones, Robert Murphy, Nathan Djerrkura, Daniel Cross and Liam Picken are all carrying one complaint or another. That's a fair collection of talent and even if three or four of them miss, it's hard to see them having enough firepower to trouble the visitors, who sit in fifth place with 11 wins. As a result, the money's been pouring in for West Coast at the TAB. The Dogs are in 12th place, with a poor percentage and only a very slim chance to make the top eight, so motivation could also be a factor.  

BPL Tip: West Coast by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WB $2.10, WC $1.68    

Geelong v Melbourne (Saturday, 2.10pm, Skilled Stadium)

Not the fixture Melbourne would have wanted after its nine-goal belting by Hawthorn last week. So off they troop to Skilled Stadium where the Cats haven't lost in 27 matches. (And the Dees have lost their past six against Geelong, stretching back to 2007, by an average of 56 points - so the omens aren't great for the Redlegs.) The Cats are set to bring back Cameron Ling, Brad Ottens and Steve Johnson for Saturday's clash. They were listed with minor ailments for last week's ‘game' against Richmond but really the club took the opportunity to rest them - as they have done throughout the season. In fact, the Catters are at the tailend of an intense mid-season training regime, which they have managed successfully by resting players, giving game-time to potential back-ups - and it has cost them only two narrow losses. Melbourne, meanwhile, are very much in the mix for the finals, sitting a game and percentage out of eighth place, but that task will become all the more difficult after this trip down the Geelong Rd. They need more marking options in attack, and classy, experienced midfielders at the stoppages, to be competitive against this battle-hardened lot. So the Cats by plenty.  

BPL Tip: Geelong by 45 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Geel $1.07, Melb $7.50 

Gold Coast v St Kilda (Saturday, 7.10pm, Metricon Stadium)

The loss of Nick Riewoldt for this game will rob St Kilda of its usual structure but, against the fledgling Gold Coast side, that shouldn't hurt them too much. The Sainters are on a roll and, after four straight wins, the 2009 and 2010 grand finalists have moved into the top eight for the first time this season. Stephen Milne (eight goals) and Adam Schneider (five) proved against Adelaide last week that they can probably hold together the forward line in Riewoldt's absence. Just as importantly, the Saints haven't conceded more than 70 points in the past five weeks as its defence begins to look more and more solid. Gold Coast, remarkably, won the clearance count against Collingwood, 40-37, so their midfielders, led by Gary Ablett, are doing their bit. If they smarten up their delivery into the forward line, which will happen soon enough, then they'll start to post more competitive scores. But that's unlikely to happen this week. The Saints to win but, without Riewoldt, won't be the blowout that many imagine.  

BPL Tip: St Kilda by 35 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: GC $7.00, StK $1.08 

Fremantle v Hawthorn (Saturday, 5.40pm, Patersons Stadium)

Hawthorn's last trip to Patersons Stadium was not a happy one, as they went down to Fremantle by five goals in last year's elimination final. On that warm, sunny afternoon, Freo were too slick and too fast for the Hawks and made them look very ordinary. This time around, the Dockers look like they'll be without ruckman Aaron Sandilands (again), David Mundy and now Luke McPharlin, who's suspended. So that tips the balance the Hawks' way. McPharlin would have taken Lance Franklin so that job might go to Alex Silvagni. Cyril Rioli was the difference when these two teams met in Round 11 at the MCG, kicking five goals, and he again looms as a dangerman (hamstrings permitting). We think the Hawks will exact revenge for that finals' loss but we won't be as confident if the weather is warm, and outfield fast, because that's when the Dockers could cause some damage.  

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $2.80, Haw $1.40 

Collingwood v Essendon (Sunday, 2.10pm, MCG)

No, not quite the ANZAC Day hype about this return bout, but it shapes as a pretty important contest nonetheless, especially for Essendon which was edged out of the top eight last weekend after a heavy loss to Carlton and St Kilda's thrashing of Adelaide. The Bombers now join six other clubs in the frantic race for one of the final three spots in the top eight. They should get two mainstays back this week - captain Jobe Watson and Dustin Fletcher - and that will help them no end. But, on the flipside, they will be without injured defender Tayte Pears who may have been an option for the dangerous Travis Cloke. So James Hird will need to find a match-up for Cloke - and Fletcher's probably too light for the job - or the big No.32 will have a day out. For the Pies, Darren Jolly should return from illness to play his 200th game but it will be interesting to see whether Cameron Wood, who has been impressive in Jolly's absence, is retained or cast aside. Alan Didak and Sharrod Wellingham are other possible inclusions. Can't see Essendon getting too close here - the Pies are playing football like it's rarely been played before - but they'll desperately want to avoid a belting so they can retain a decent percentage. We think Travis Cloke will get his hands on the ball after an early Magpie clearance - and shoot wide with his set shot. Take the first score to be a Collingwood point at $3.50. 

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 49 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Coll $1.07, Ess $7.50 

Adelaide v Port Adelaide (Sunday, 4.10pm, AAMI Stadium)

Perhaps the least-hyped, least-anticipated Showdown ever as these two sides struggle to make any sort of impact this season. The Crows' poor form this week cost Neil Craig his job, the coach stepping down after last week's woeful performance against St Kilda. So Mark Bickley is in the hot seat this week and he'll be hoping the caretaker-coach syndrome kicks in, where players seem to fire up for the new man in charge. But Bickley has a job in front of him: the Crows have kicked five goals in the past six quarters of football - a deplorable return. Can he suddenly transform them into a goalscoring machine? Unlikely, we think. Brad Symes will miss after breaking his jaw, as will Matthew Jaensch and Ian Callinan while Port will be without Dean Brogan, Alipate Carlisle and Jasper Pittard.  Port won the Showdown by five goals in Round 4 this year and has triumphed in five of the past six against its arch-rivals. We think, as underdogs, they'll prevail again. 

BPL Tip: Port Adelaide by 31 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Adel $1.60, Port $2.25 

BPL Tipping tally: 103

Byes: Brisbane, Richmond, Sydney