St Kilda v Fremantle (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

The Saints can just about cement their spot in the top eight with a win here (and which of the other seven teams can honestly say they'd want to face Ross Lyon's resurgent team in September?) They meet a Fremantle side on Friday who barely gave a yelp against Hawthorn at home last week and, in truth, have never really regained their spark after Melbourne beat them by 89 points in Round 13 (although, it has to be said, Aaron Sandilands has been a huge loss.) Key defender Luke McPharlin returns for the Dockers, having served his one-match suspension and will take on Saints captain and key forward Nick Riewoldt, who also comes back after a one-match ban. His teammate Zac Dawson has also run into trouble with the tribunal this week, and will miss this game as a result. Jason Blake seems the most logical replacement for him. The Saints have won five in a row, have rediscovered their confidence and the likes of Dal Santo, Goddard, Fisher and Peake have blossomed. And St Kilda's defence has got that boa constrictor look about it again. The home side has racked up seven straight wins over Freo, including by eight goals earlier this year, and should make it No.8 on Friday. Comfortably.

BPL Tip: St Kilda by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: StK $1.11, Frem $6.00

‪Carlton v Melbourne (Saturday, 2.10pm, MCG)

The Demons have experienced just about the most tumultuous week imaginable: defeated by 186 points, coach sacked 24 hours after the match, reluctant caretaker appointed, reserves beaten by 20 goals, recriminations and bickering behind the scenes and Tom Scully's situation no closer to being solved. Carlton accused Melbourne of playing ‘bruise-free' footy the last time these teams met, and that slur prompted a burst of spirited form from the Demons. Perhaps it'll produce something more bold from the Dees on Saturday than we saw last week. New coach Todd Viney has already flagged Clint Bartram, Aaron Davey and Tom Scully as possible inclusions. The Blues are sailing along beautifully and once they get back Jarrad Waite, who's a 50-50 chance this week, and Michael Jamison, who is still two weeks away, they'll be formidable. You'd expect the Demons to show a lot more fight under Viney, and they'll be competitive for while, but Carlton's class will carry the day and keep alive their top-four hopes.

BPL Tip: Carlton by 29 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Carl $1.11, Melb $6.00

Geelong v Gold Coast (Saturday, 2.10pm, Skilled Stadium)

Fresh from their 31-goal win over Melbourne at Skilled Stadium, Geelong hosts the league new boys, Gold Coast, this Saturday and the contest has more than a hint of lions-versus-Christians about it. Especially now that the Suns best player, and former Cats champion, Gary Ablett has pulled out with a tweaked hammy. If the Cats played their best squad and were utterly ruthless about this, you'd expect them to win by 100+ points again. But these anticipated thrashings often don't eventuate. Geelong might have one eye on the finals, which are just five weeks away, and be in some sort of self-preservation mode. Aside from all that, the Suns have had a commendable first season and play with spirit and verve. The fact they ran St Kilda to within 20 points last week shows how far they've come. The Cats will probably welcome back James Podsiadly and Josh Hunt, who missed the demolition of the Demons due to slight injuries, and they'll want to get in on the action as well. We know Geelong has won 28 straight at Skilled Stadium. We know they'll make it #29 on Saturday. But will it be a common or garden thrashing - or something much uglier? Hard to go past the Cats as highest scorer for the round at $1.75.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 80 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Geel $1.01, GC $13.00

Essendon v Sydney (Saturday, 7.20pm, Etihad Stadium)

A tough one to call, as evidenced by the TAB's odds - $1.87 apiece. If the Bombers did not have an injury list that stretched around the block, they'd be favourites here. But last week they lost Brent Prismall and Travis Colyer to season-ending injuries, on top of all their other problems. Of the wounded, Dustin Fletcher seems most likely to return from a calf complaint, while Michael Hurley and Heath Hocking are still considered unlikely to play owing to foot injuries. This is a vitally important match for both teams, who sit on the cusp of the top eight. Essendon have suffered consecutive 74-point defeats to Carlton and Collingwood, so they need a win to right the ship. They're in ninth position, two points outside the eight and four behind the sixth-placed Swans. If they can get over the Swans, the rest of their draw looks reasonably promising and they should make the finals. The Bombers were good for a half last week before injuries - and the Pies - hit them hard. Oddly, these two teams haven't played at this ground since Round 1, 2006. The Swans are coming off a bye and while they're workmanlike and tough in the clinches, we think Essendon's ability to score more freely will get them the win. Just.

BPL Tip: Essendon by 6 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Ess $1.87, Syd $1.87

Port Adelaide v Collingwood (Saturday, 7.10pm, AAMI Stadium)

Chad Cornes has announced his retirement after a long and distinguished career, and he'll bow out after Saturday night's game. So that ought to give Port a bit of a spur. They certainly need it after going down to Adelaide in the Showdown last week and cementing themselves at the foot of the ladder. The Magpies expect Dale Thomas to return, after he was a late withdrawal on Sunday with a corked calf, as well as Sharrod Wellingham, who has missed the last two matches with a groin strain. And Alan Didak might play his first game since round 14. The Pies looked wobbly for half a game last week, before hitting their stride and amassing another huge score. Their ability to pile on goals so quickly will always mean they're in with a chance, even if they're outplayed for a half. Weirdly, the Port trio of Jay Schulz, Troy Chaplin and Tom Logan all suffered plantar fascia injuries in the loss to Adelaide, so they are in doubt. Collingwood will win this battle of the Magpies, and win it well, but we think Chad Cornes' farewell game - and the fact the visitors might just coast to the line - means Port Adelaide at the line (+75.5 points) is certainly worth a try.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 55 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Port $13.00, Coll $1.01

Brisbane v Adelaide (Sunday, 1.10pm, Gabba)

Adelaide won its first hitout with caretaker Mark Bickley in charge and they seemed to play with a bit more freedom and spark, and not be burdened down with thoughts about structure and process. And they beat their great cross-town rivals, too. Taylor Walker (four goals) made the most of his return to the seniors, along with Chris Knights (31 disposals) as the Crows removed themselves from the wooden spoon zone. That joy was tempered this week by the news it had lost the promising Phil Davis to GWS. The Lions lie in 15th place with three wins and they play the Crows and Suns in the next fortnight: they'll be very keen to win this one and move up a rung or two. These two teams played in Adelaide 10 weeks ago and Brisbane (with Jonathan Brown in the team) won by 40 points. There'll be no Brown this time around but their recent form at the Gabba's OK - beating Port and kicking 15 goals in an honourable loss to Geelong. Bit of a toss of the coin this one, but we'll back the home team by a whisker. 

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Bris $1.65, Adel $2.15

Hawthorn v North Melbourne (Sunday, 2.10pm, Aurora Stadium)

It's been a long time between drinks for these two clubs - a ridiculous amount of time, really - who last met in Round 5 last year. That match was in Launceston, as well, and the Roos came away winners on that day by a couple of goals. Since then, the Hawks are unbeaten at the Aurora Stadium fortress. Brad Scott's men currently sit in 10th position, just one win outside of the top eight and will need to make their next four matches count if they are to have any chance. On paper, it looks like a bit of a mismatch - the Hawks sit in third place and the Roos' record against top-four teams, as we know, is atrocious. But North always seems to serve it up to the Hawks and make a contest - their record is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings. The Roos might try Cam Pedersen or Scott Thompson or Lachie Hansen to play on Buddy Franklin (or all three). At the other end, the Hawks will need to find a match-up for Drew Petrie - could it be former Roo Josh Gibson? Hawks skipper Luke Hodge should come back after missing the trip to Perth with a swollen knee; Shane Savage is also a chance to return. For the Roos, Lindsay Thomas kicked 9.3 in the reserves last week - but will Brad Scott risk the sometimes errant goalsneak? We think North are way over the odds here and will give plenty of cheek. They won in the wet earlier this season and rain squalls are tipped to blow through Tasmania again this weekend. So we're tipping a much tighter contest than many expect.

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 5 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: Haw $1.11, North $6.00

West Coast v Richmond (Sunday, 2.40pm, Patersons Stadium)

The Tigers make the trip to Perth after getting a chance to regroup and take stock over their Round 19 bye weekend. And boy did they need the break, having lost the five previous matches including that horror 103-point defeat to Carlton. They'll be without injured captain Chris Newman for this trip but at least the young players will have had a rest and Damien Hardwick a chance to reiterate what's expected of each of them. But it does look a tough test. The inexperienced Richmond ruckmen will have their hands full containing Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui, who's likely to return from injury this week. And after three weeks sidelined with glute and hip soreness, Daniel Kerr is expected to return this week as well. Just what the Tigers need: a full-strength West Coast centre-square combination to come up against. If they can somehow quell that midfield machine, Richmond might make a game of it. Possibly, maybe. And, the one bit of good news for them is that Eagles' full-forward Josh Kennedy will require one more week to recover from his eye injury. Still, the Tigers have lost five of their last six at Patersons Stadium and carry terrible form into the match, so we can't seriously entertain them as a threat. The home side side to win and carry on the fight with Hawthorn and Carlton for that prized top-four berth.

BPL Tip: West Coast by 34 points
TAB Sportsbet odds: WC $1.08, Rich $7.00