Carlton v Hawthorn (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

A mouth-watering prospect. Sure to be a sellout and will answer many questions about both sides. There's a position in the top four up for grabs and the chance to get some sort of psychological edge going into the finals. Hawthorn are favourites because their forwards - principally Franklin and Rioli - are in great touch and the Blues are likely to be without their first-choice full-back Michael Jamison, the logical matchup for Buddy. Even if Jamison plays, it'll be a big ask after seven weeks on the sidelines to mind the Coleman Medal leader. (By the same token, if Chris Yarran gets the job on Rioli, that'll be worth the price of admission alone.) The Hawks have a better record this season in attack and defence but Carlton might shade them in the midfield, where Judd and Murphy are leading most media awards. And this is where the match will be won. If Mitchell, Sewell, Hodge and co can get enough of the ball to Franklin, Rioli, Breust and Hale, then that should be enough to secure a Hawks win. If they're chasing Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Robinson and Simpson around all night - and the Blues do have an edge in pace - it might be a different story. We're leaning towards Buddy and co, though.

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Carl $2.15, Haw $1.65

Gold Coast v Adelaide (Saturday, 2.10pm, Metricon Stadium)

Amid the five-star match-ups this weekend, this game will inevitably get pushed into the background. But the possible appearance of Nathan Ablett for his first game of the season will ensure it's not forgotten altogether. It seems as though Guy McKenna's boys have just about put the cue in the rack for the season, the rigours of a long debut year catching up with them. The veteran Daniel Harris chose to hang up his boots during the week. Adelaide, by contrast, have blossomed under caretaker coach Mark Bickley and ran Geelong close last weekend. What has been apparent is that Bickley has let the players have their head, he's given them a licence to free-wheel a bit more and they've responded to that freedom. Now goal-scoring is coming a lot more easily: 16, 16 and 12 in the past three weeks. After creditable performances against Collingwood and St Kilda, the Suns have fallen away in the past fortnight - and are unlikely to have enough class or depth to trouble the Crows, who get key-position players Walker and Rutten back and will want to finish the year off strongly. The Crows should win well.

BPL Tip: Adelaide by 43 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: GC $4.25, Adel $1.20

One of the Big Four games this weekend. West Coast are playing for a spot in the top four, Essendon are trying to keep a foothold in the top eight. The Bombers' record against West Coast in Perth is not good. They last beat the Eagles at Paterson's Stadium in 2001 - eight matches ago - but the worst of those defeats was 44 points so they've at least been competitive. The Eagles wouldn't want to take this game too lightly because the Bombers have shown when they have the appetite for the contest, they're hard to toss. West Coast's forest of tall timber - Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui in the ruck, Quinten Lynch and Jack Darling up forward - means that Dustin Fletcher and Michael Hurley simply have to play for the Bombers to have any chance. Fletcher pulled up lame with an ankle injury after last week's game and is a 50-50 chance to play, while Hurley is also in doubt with a foot injury. In other sideshows, Dyson Heppell and Luke Shuey are the two frontrunners for the AFL's Rising Star award and they will get the chance to show their wares on the same park. The home side will move closer to cementing that top-four spot but we think it'll be closer than the betting suggests - and punters should consider taking the Bombers at the line (+23.5 points).

BPL Tip: West Coast by 18 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WC $1.28, Ess $3.50

North Melbourne v Fremantle (Saturday, 7.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

Another vitally important contest: the winner keeps alive their finals hopes, the loser is in strife. The Roos are back in action after a bye last week but, at $1.30, look too short in the betting against a side that is one spot above them on the ladder. Yes, Freo has been pretty insipid these past three weeks but big man Aaron Sandilands has a game under his belt, Michael Barlow is running into some form and coach Mark Harvey has demanded a more spirited showing this week. We think they'll respond. North's Todd Goldstein has been fantastic in shouldering the ruckload largely by himself this season but the contest against Sandilands will test him. And could shape the outcome of the game. Drew Petrie needs some help on the Roos' forward line if they're to prevail here. Too often, he's double-teamed and taken out of the game and no-one steps up (like Hansen, Edwards or Pedersen) to fill the void. Still, Matty Campbell emerged with five goals against Hawthorn at the last start and he, with Lindsay Thomas, will add some bite to the attack. Bit of a toss of a coin this one, but we reckon the visitors might be able to cause an upset.

BPL Tip: Fremantle by 7 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: NM $1.30, Frem $3.30

Collingwood v Brisbane (Saturday, 7.10pm, MCG)

This is shaping as the round's only likely blowout, and that's reflected in Brisbane's price as $13.00 outsiders. The Lions are actually in reasonable form, having disposed of Gold Coast by 10 goals at last start and being pipped at the post by Adelaide the week before. But this will be a bridge too far. Collingwood has been almost faultless in the past three months with a 12-match unbeaten streak running from round nine. For all that, they weren't super impressive in beating St Kilda last Friday, prevailing by just 19 points, and that might indicate that the finals are a priority now, rather than humdrum home-and-away games against lowly opponents. Alan Didak will benefit from the run, while youngsters such as Alex Fasolo, Lachlan Keeffe and Luke Rounds have grasped opportunities with both hands in the absence of injured and suspended teammates. Still, the Pies are now without captain Nick Maxwell for at least the rest of the home and away season with a fractured thumb, and Sharrod Wellingham is in doubt with a sore hip. Still, the ins and outs won't matter much: the Pies to canter home, slowing up on the line. For some value, try the High-Low scoring double of Collingwood-Brisbane.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 56 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Coll $1.01, Bris $13.00

Sydney v St Kilda (Sunday, 1.10pm, ANZ Stadium)

A game that pits the two masters of ‘tempo football', that's to say the two teams that place more emphasis on saving goals rather than scoring them. And, amazingly, they haven't played each other since the opening round last year, more than 40 games ago. Sydney, having spent the majority of the season in the top flight, now sit precariously in eighth place after losing six of their past eight games (with their only wins coming against Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs.) A seven-goal loss to Richmond last Sunday capped a dire two months for the club, and might force selection changes this week. While the Swans' defence has been at its miserly best, they score a pathetic 84 points a game on average which is not good enough. The Saints, meanwhile, have been on the up and up and won eight of their past 11 to climb into sixth place. Their six-match unbeaten run ended against Collingwood last Friday but they were far from disgraced by the 19-point loss. We think their confidence will still be high and will consign the Swannies to more misery. But don't expect a goal-fest. In fact, we reckon the standout bet is an aggregate points tally of under 150 points.

BPL Tip: St Kilda by 17 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Syd $2.25, StK $1.60

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs (Sunday, 2.40pm, AAMI Stadium)

A big week for the Bulldogs, who chose on Wednesday not to renew coach Rodney Eade's contract after seven years at the helm. So he's out the door at season's end and has three games to coach before he leaves. It will be interesting to see the players' reaction this weekend and whether they are flat - or play a blinder. Of course, the Dogs face the least demanding task in football at the moment - a fixture against Port Adelaide - so they should win, and win well. Port have had issues of their own with speculation about Kane Cornes' future at the club and more bickering and unrest behind the scenes. The Bullies will be without defender Dale Morris after a shocking broken leg last week - he joins fellow-backmen Tom Williams and Brian Lake on the sidelines - and Adam Cooney has been ruled out for the season. So they're undermanned - as they have been all year - but should have enough polish, confidence and motivation to record their eighth win of 2011.

BPL Tip: Western Bulldogs by 31 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Port $5.00, WB $1.15

Melbourne v Richmond (Sunday, 4.40pm, MCG)

Melbourne still harbours some hopes of making the final eight and will need to win its last three games, including this one, to have any chance. These two teams met just eight weeks ago, in Round 14, and the Demons prevailed that day by 27 points. That, of course, was when Dean Bailey was coach. He's no longer there and Todd Viney is the man now wrestling with the whiteboard. The Tigers ended a horror run last week when they beat Sydney by 43 points at the MCG, and played with a passion and verve that had been missing for weeks. If Houli, Cotchin, Deledio, Martin and co. can play like that again on Sunday, a win is assured. The Demons should welcome back captain Brad Green after he missed last week with injury. They've won four of the past five against Richmond and always seem to lift for the contest against their co-tenant. But their past four matches have yielded defeats of 54, 186, 76 and 48 points so their confidence must have taken a hammering. We think the Tiges might have rediscovered their mojo and should chalk up two on the trot.

BPL Tip: Richmond by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Melb $2.05, Rich $1.72