Fremantle v Collingwood (Friday, 6.40pm, Patersons Stadium)

Freo were clobbered by 98 points last week and look set to lose up to seven players to injury (including Pavlich, Mundy and Ballantyne) for this match against the premiers, so a Friday night blowout is on the cards. The only thing that prevents us from tipping an absolute belting is Collingwood's performance against Brisbane last week when they looked set for a 10-goal win, only to allow the Lions to kick seven goals in the final term. I think the Pies are in self-preservation mode, will have an eye on Geelong in Round 24, and the finals beyond that, and will just do enough to win. Of course, there's a huge gulf in class, so a lacklustre Collingwood is still more than a match for most, especially an undermanned Freo. Much of the interest in the game will be focused on Chris Dawes' likely return from a hand injury after seven weeks, Ben Reid's recovery from a rib/back injury last week and Alan Didak's continued game-time.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 38 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $13.00, Coll $1.01 

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 2.10pm, MCG)

As we near the business end of the season, it will be interesting to see how clubs such as Hawthorn, which has a top-four spot sewn up, approach the final two games. Will the Hawks rest Sam Mitchell and/or Buddy Franklin, for example, for this match? The Dogs are horribly undermanned, and have a L-Plate backline in place, so shouldn't pose too much of a threat. In fact, they'll experiment with a few different ideas under caretaker coach Paul Williams and, after the success of Jason Tutt last week, might take the opportunity to blood a few more youngsters. The Hawks would probably prefer to play Geelong, ahead of Collingwood, in week one of the finals so will have an incentive to finish third rather than fourth. So, like Collingwood in the Friday night game, Hawthorn will do enough to win - without jeopardizing the health of their stars.   

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 29 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Haw $1.10, WB $6.25 

Back at their fortress (where, of course, they've won the past 29 games), Geelong coming off the bye should have little trouble in accounting for the Swans. Matthew Scarlett has shaken off his knee injury, while Darren Milburn, Andrew Mackie and Tom Hawkins, who all missed the Rd 21 Crows' game, are expected to be available. (Retiring forward Cameron Mooney will miss the game due to suspension.) Interest will focus on the ruck, too, where Trent West might be brought in to give Brad Ottens a hand against former Cat Shane Mumford. Geelong has won the last nine against Sydney and have not lowered their colours to the Bloods at home since 1999, and we can't see those sequences being broken here. The Swans had a really good win against St Kilda last week to give them a great chance at hosting a home final but, as we've mentioned ad nauseam in these previews, they struggle to kick goals, even when they do win. They managed just 10 against the Saints (along, admittedly, with 23 behinds) and up against the league's second-best defence, at Skilled Stadium, we reckon the Swans might find six-pointers really hard to come by. In fact, if we were partial to a flutter, we might even take Sydney as the lowest scoring team for the round. 

BPL Tip: Geelong by 43 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Geel $1.07, Syd $7.50 

St Kilda v North Melbourne (Saturday, 7.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

Probably the game of the round because it's a virtual elimination final. The Saints - surprise losers to Sydney last week - need to win to cement a finals' berth; North - if they can win their last two - could still sneak into eighth. The Kangas had a 16-goal win over Freo last week and, while their opponents were nobbled by injury, coach Brad Scott would have been delighted with their 38 shots at goal. These two teams met at this ground in Round 15 in what was a dour struggle. The Saints got out to a decent lead in the third quarter then just stopped to a walk, and didn't score at all in the last term. North peppered the goals but couldn't make up the deficit and ended up losing by nine points. We know the Saints can shut down even the best sides so North will need to find an avenue to goal other than Drew Petrie. Cam Pedersen shapes as a likely big-marking target. At the other end, St Kilda will face a similar problem with Nick Riewoldt; other players need to step up to help the Saints post more than a dozen goals. Bit of a toss of the coin but we're going with the underdogs because of their more potent forward line. 

BPL Tip: North Melbourne by 11 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: St K $1.68, NM $2.10 

Brisbane v West Coast (Saturday, 7.10pm, Gabba)

Brisbane would be hugely encouraged by their seven-goal last quarter against Collingwood last week when they played with flair and dash. Sure, the Pies probably relaxed, but that 30 minutes would have given Brissy fans much to be enthused about. And Daniel Rich was in the thick of the action, too, after coming on as a second-half sub. It has been reported that the Eagles are considering resting some of their big guns for the trip east - and it is a fair old trip - including Dean Cox, Daniel Kerr and Matt Priddis. They just have to win one of their last two to be sure of a top-four berth. But they wouldn't want to take this game too easily. The Lions have not much to lose and can go out there on Saturday night and throw caution to the wind. Brisbane has won the last four against West Coast, and has not been beaten at the Gabba by the Eagles since 2006. There are enough portents here for a major upset. We're tipping those roaring Lions.

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 10 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Bris $3.30, WC $1.30 

Adelaide v Richmond (Sunday, 12.40pm, AAMI Stadium)

A contest between two teams who've had shocking seasons but are finally showing some signs of life. Adelaide under caretaker coach Mark Bickley has been something of a revelation: he's simplified the game plan for his players, allowed them to improvise and back themselves - and the results have been encouraging, including a narrow loss to Geelong. The Tigers are coming off the back of two good wins and appear to be finding their rhythm. Captain Chris Newman could return from a knee injury which would bolster their chances. But the Tiges haven't beaten Adelaide at AAMI Stadium since 1999, a run of six straight defeats. We think at home the Crows might prove too much of a test again - especially if they get their tails up early and start streaming through the midfield in numbers.   

BPL Tip: Adelaide by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Adel $1.36, Rich $3.00 

Melbourne v Gold Coast (Sunday, 2.10pm, MCG)

Not a match-up to necessarily set the pulses racing because Melbourne, apart from their recent outing against Richmond, have been largely lamentable and Gold Coast's striplings can't wait for the season to end. What Melbourne fans will be watching for is how captain Brad Green fares. He started as a substitute last week, giving rise to speculation he's not part of the club's plans next year and beyond. Colin Sylvia and Aaron Davey will miss through suspension which - given Sylvia's excellent form last week - will spike the Demons' guns to some extent. But at the MCG the Demons grow an extra leg and can sometimes bully underperforming interstate teams. Such as Gold Coast. This shapes as a great opportunity for some borderline players - and even the skipper - to impress the Melbourne coaching panel.

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 48 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Melb $1.08, GC $7.00 

Essendon v Port Adelaide (Sunday, 4.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

What a time for the Bombers to come up against Port who, with no disrespect, are the next best thing to a bye at the moment. In fact, Essendon finish the season with a bye so will leave nothing to chance in this game and will be going flat out because their next hitout will be an elimination final in a fortnight (presumably). Stewart Crameri comes out with a bung shoulder - Michael Hurley is likely to be his replacement - while Jobe Watson and Andrew Welsh both copped heavy knocks against West Coast and will be tested. Port has lost 10 in a row by an aggregate of 363 points so have hit very hard times. The form of John Butcher, who kicked six goals in just his second game last week, was a rare moment of joy, as was Jackson Trengove's re-signing this week. But another long afternoon looms for the Power as Essendon will be in no mood for mercy. 

BPL Tip: Essendon by 72 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Ess $1.02, Port $11.00