Collingwood v Geelong (MCG, Friday, 7.40pm)

It's first-versus-second on the last weekend before the finals, so you'd be expecting a knock 'em down, drag 'em out, crackerjack affair, right? Er, not quite. These two teams already know who they'll be playing in the first week of the finals so - to that extent - the result of this match doesn't really matter. Collingwood, who'll be without Maxwell, Shaw and now the suspended Thomas, can't afford any more setbacks to their back-to-back campaign. They've got top spot sewn up, so why would they need to go flat out? That will be the interesting aspect to this contest: to see just how hard these teams are trying given there's so little at stake. On the flipside, the Pies lost their only match this season to Geelong, so won't want to make it two out of two. Geelong lost surprisingly to Sydney last weekend - at home, as well - so won't want to go into the finals on the back of two straight defeats. The Cats are likely to leave out Harry Taylor (concussion) and Joel Corey (groin) again but might recall two veterans, Cam Mooney and Darren Milburn. The Pies will be sweating on Sharrod Wellingham, and want to get some game time into him before the qualifying final while Chris Tarrant and Luke Ball are expected to come back in. The worrying thing for the Cats is that they are yet to settle on their forward structure - they've chopped and changed all season - and that's a problem a week out from the finals. This is no time to be experimenting. A tough one to pick, because of all those imponderables, but without Taylor and Corey, can't see Geelong holding the Pies to a manageable score.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 16 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Coll $1.30, Geel $3.30

The Hawks know they'll be playing Geelong in the first week of the finals - regardless of whether they finish the season in second or third place - and that match could well be on a Friday night, which means they'll have just a six-day break. So they'll do enough to beat Gold Coast on Saturday, but won't be chasing any records. They could well rest a few important players, such as Max Bailey, Cyril Rioli and one or two others, and give Brent Renouf, Xavier Ellis, Ben Stratton and Rick Ladson a chance to strut their stuff. (Sam Mitchell should also return from the knee soreness that kept him out of last weekend's win over the Western Bulldogs.) Gold Coast are truly just staggering to the line, and the season can't end soon enough for them. They'll want to put up a decent showing in front of their home crowd for the last time this year but, privately, they'd be delighted to get within six or seven goals of the in-form Hawkers. The line set at +75.5 points is too generous, given that the Hawks will just want to get through the game unscathed.

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 51 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: GC $13.00, Haw $1.01

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle (Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm)

Fremantle has been hit by one of the worst injury crises in recent memory: Eighteen players have been ruled out for Saturday's season-ending clash against the Western Bulldogs, and a further five face fitness tests. That leaves 22 players, including three rookies, who are definitely available for selection. So forget any notion that the Dockers can win this match. It'll simply be a matter of how far the Dogs. The Bullies lost another tall defender on Saturday with Ayce Cordy breaking his hand against the Hawks. That luckily leaves the way open for retiring ruckman Ben Hudson to come back into the side for his farewell game. The match also marks Barry Hall's last appearance in the AFL - after a stellar career in which he's kicked 741 goals - and the Bullies will want to honour him, and Hudson, with a strong win. In fact, might be worth having a bob or two on the Dogs as the High Scoring Team.

BPL Tip: Western Bulldogs by 51 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WB $1.07, Fremantle $7.50

Sydney v Brisbane (SCG, Saturday, 4.10pm)

The Swannies are hitting peak form at exactly the right time of the season, having disposed of St Kilda and Geelong (at Skilled Stadium if you don't mind) in the past two weeks. That will mean they've earned themselves a home final against St Kilda, as long as they can win here and the Saints go down to Carlton. (Or they absolutely thrash Brisbane, in which case they can leapfrog the Saints on percentage.) So that'll be motivation enough to go full-bore here. But the Lions have worked themselves into a bit of form, too - which might sound a funny thing to say given they've won just one of the last seven. But they were good against Collingwood and were unlucky not to knock off West Coast last week, having led virtually all night. So this is not a soda for the Swans. These two teams met at the Gabba in Rd 11 and Sydney posted one of their best wins of the year, by 11 goals. We think, with so much on the line, they can repeat the dose here - though perhaps not by as much. Brisbane will struggle to score in the tight confines of the SCG and could even post the Lowest Score of the round.

BPL Tip: Sydney by 31 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Syd $1.14, Bris $5.25

Carlton v St Kilda (MCG, Saturday, 7.10pm)

A match between two certain finalists which doesn't have much at stake for one team, Carlton, but plenty for the other - St Kilda. The Saints are playing, essentially, for the right to host a home final. Get over the top of the Blues and they should finish sixth, meaning they host the Swans in an elimination final - rather than have to travel to Sydney.  That's motivation enough for a spirited performance. Carlton is cemented in fifth place and will almost certainly play Essendon in week one. The Saints were super-impressive against North last week, having 40 shots at goal and kicking their highest score of the season. And, importantly, skipper Nick Riewoldt showed some signs of a return to form. We think they're good things here. For the Blues, Michael Jamison had a few goals kicked on him in the VFL by Brendan Fevola last week, but he got the extra run he needed. While Jarrad Waite is facing an uphill battle to overcome his hip complaint and remains a long shot to play at all this weekend. The Blues had a bye last weekend, and a loss to Hawthorn before that when Chris Judd looked really flat. We reckon the Saints, with more to play for, will win by a whisker.

BPL Tip: St Kilda by 11 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Carl $1.65, StK $2.15

West Coast v Adelaide (Patersons Stadium, Saturday, 5.10pm)

West Coast is ensconced in the top four and can't drop out of it, while Adelaide are just playing for pride - and perhaps Mark Bickley's future as the club coach. The Eagles were pretty hopeless last week against Brisbane and only a late flurry of goals delivered them a narrow win. They'll want to be a bit more switched on here and West Coast fans would have been pleased to hear coach John Worsfold ruling out the idea of resting players this week, and instead challenging his group to prepare for the dead rubber as intensely as they have for every other match this season. They have won six straight matches - and 11 of their last 12 - so are heavily favoured. Adelaide were traveling along nicely under caretaker coach Bickley but came a gutser against Richmond at home last week, conceding 10 of the game's last 14 goals to lose by 22 points. The Eagles won this match in Round 12 by 39 points so must be favoured again at home - but perhaps not by as much as people might imagine.

BPL Tip: West Coast by 25 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WC $1.15, Adel $5.00

Port Adelaide v Melbourne (Adelaide Oval, Sunday, 2.40pm)

The first AFL match to be played at the Adelaide Oval, home of South Australian cricket, pits 17th-placed Port Adelaide against 12th-placed Melbourne, so not exactly a show-stopper. The incentive for Port in this game is powerful: avoiding the wooden spoon. At the moment, they're bottom and need a win over the Dees to leapfrog Gold Coast (assuming the Suns lose to Hawthorn.) Port was unlucky not to get that much-needed win last week when they took it right up to Essendon and led by six goals well into the match, before being overrun. As it is, they've had just two successes in 2011, making it comfortably their worst season in the AFL. The Power are hoping retiring ruckman Dean Brogan (calf) will be fit to play what will be his farewell game. The Demons broke a five-game losing streak last week and gave caretaker coach Todd Viney his first taste of victory - albeit over an exhausted Gold Coast. The Demons haven't beaten either of the two SA-based teams at AAMI Stadium since overcoming Adelaide in round two, 2001, so will be glad of the change of venue. We think they'll win by more than the line, set at 10.5 pts, to end an otherwise miserable season on a high.

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Port $2.50, Melb $1.50

Richmond v North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium, Sunday, 4.40pm)

North's campaign to reach the finals same to a screeching halt last week when they ran into a St Kilda roadblock. After opening up a 20-point lead in the third quarter, North were simply pathetic over the last quarter and a bit. They'll want to atone for that, and salvage something from a slightly disappointing season, by beating Richmond in this Sunday twilight game. The Kangas have lost Jack Ziebell and Levi Greenwood to suspension, and Daniel Wells to injury, so that robs them of much midfield grunt. Captain Brent Harvey will need to lift after an insipid game last week. Ruckman Hamish McIntosh has already been announced as a certain starter - in his 100th game - and might replace a tired Todd Goldstein. The Tigers are chasing their fourth straight win but they'll be without Jake King, belatedly suspended by the MRP, while captain Chris Newman will miss again. Richmond won by nine points, in a high-scoring affair, when these two teams met in round five. With not much at stake, this could well be another shootout - with the in-form Tiges to prevail again.

BPL Tip: Richmond by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Rich $2.65, North $1.45