Carlton's Chris Judd is an odds-on favourite for the 2011 Brownlow Medal, to be decided on Monday night, because - in the vernacular - he ticks all the boxes: he's a midfielder, his team is playing in the finals, he's a proven vote-winner and, of course, he's had a heck of a season.

There will be teammates such as Marc Murphy - but also Andrew Walker, Eddie Betts and Heath Scotland - who take votes away from him but the Blues only lost six games this season, so that shouldn't be too much of an issue.

Collingwood has two prime contenders, Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan, who similarly fulfil all the historical  requirements for any would-be Brownlow winner - even if Travis Cloke, Leon Davis and Dale Thomas pinch some of their votes.

But the Pies won 18 or 19 of their matches by big margins so there'll be many games when all six votes are shared by three Collingwood players.

So it would appear the medal will be fought out between the pair of Pies and brace of Blues - Judd and Murphy - with Adam Goodes flying into contention after a barnstorming late run.

One of the interesting aspects of the night will be who polls best for Geelong, the team which finished second after 19 wins. They should rack up huge numbers of votes but who will they be awarded to? Joel Selwood will win most but he's ineligible through suspension; Jimmy Bartel is listed next at $250, and then Steve Johnson and James Kelly at $501. We think Kelly, an All-Australian who has been in career-best form this year and who wins huge numbers of frees for his tackling, is enormous value at that price (and perhaps worth a speculative each-way shekel.)   

It's worth noting that Swan was pre-poll favourite last year but finished third, six votes behind Judd, so there is some doubt about whether he is the sort of player who attracts votes even with middling performances, as Judd and Goodes seem to be. Swan's only other top-10 result came in 2007 when he finished nine votes adrift of Jimmy Bartel, so jury's out on whether he's a 'Brownlow type' or not. 

Which of the roughies are in with a shout?

Matthew Boyd has stood up at the Bulldogs this year unlike many of his mates; Dean Cox started like a shot out of a gun; Gary Ablett has been as productive as ever but in a losing team; evergreen Simon Black was almost back to his Medal-winning form of 2002; Adelaide's Scott Thompson picked up more than 600 possessions for the year; Daniel Wells glided around the place and always looked impressive and Nat Fyfe was an absolute standout at Freo in just his second season.

As we look at the market for this year's Brownlow Medal and try to sort the genuine contenders from the also-rans, here a few historical facts - the Brownlow Formula, if you like - which might help you pick a winner:

1. The Brownlow has, as we know, become the Midfielders Medal. The last non-midfielder to win was Footscray ruckman Scott Wynd in 1992. The umpires seem to love the flashy, high-possession players who are right under their noses all game. Forwards don't seem to rate a mention; backmen less so. In the past decade, Matthew Richardson has come closest to winning of any forward, racking up 22 votes to finish third in 2008. Nick Riewoldt's best is 17 votes, Lance Franklin's is 20; Jonathan Brown's 19. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Dean Cox (WC), Travis Cloke (Coll)

2. The Brownlow is likely to be won by a player whose team features in the finals. It has been that way for the last 12 years, since Shane Crawford won in 1999. In fact, in the last 20 years, the only other winner whose team finished in the lower half of the ladder was Sydney's Paul Kelly in 1995. Even in 2003 when three players shared the award - Adam Goodes, Nathan Buckley and Mark Ricciuto - their three clubs played in the finals. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Gary Ablett (GC), Matthew Boyd (WB), Trent Cotchin (Rich), Simon Black (Bris), Andrew Swallow (NM), Scott Thompson (Adel), Andrew Embley (WC), Ryan Griffen (WB), Daniel Kerr (WC), Daniel Wells (NM).

3. The umpires clearly have their favourites, and they're generally the clean-cut, no whingeing, no back-chatting types who only play the ball. Chris Judd is a proven vote-winner - polling an above-average 30 votes in the two years he won - while Nick Maxwell and Matthew Scarlett, for example, are not. Brisbane's Simon Black (five top-10s), Sydney's Adam Goodes (five top-10s), Gold Coast's Gary Ablett (four top-10s) and Daniel Kerr (three top-10s) are also among the umpires' pets. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Marc Murphy (Carl; 1 x top 10), Nick dal Santo (StK; 1 x top 10), Dean Cox (WC; 0 x top-10), Trent Cotchin (0 x top-10), Matt Priddis (0 x top-10).

4. As for defenders, they've never been on the umpires' radar. Forget how many votes they get in the weekly AFL Coaches Award; in the umpies' eyes, backmen are next to invisible. Prior to this year, Scarlett - the modern game's finest full-back - had polled fewer votes (28) in 246 games than Chris Judd did last season. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Leon Davis (Coll).

5. And, finally, players can't win if they've been suspended. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Sam Mitchell (Haw), Joel Selwood (Geel), Dale Thomas (Coll), Lance Franklin (Haw) and, of course, Jake King (Rich).

WHICH PLAYERS 'TICK ALL THE BOXES'?
Chris Judd (Carl)
Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
Dane Swan (Coll)
Adam Goodes (Syd)
Daniel Kerr (WC)

SO ... WE THINK THE BEST CHANCES ARE:
1. S Pendlebury ($7.00)
2. C Judd ($1.75)
3. A Goodes ($5.00)

AND THE BEST EACH-WAY BETS:
1. James Kelly ($501/$51)
2. Simon Black ($101/$26)
2. Scott Thompson ($81/$21)
3. Daniel Wells ($101/$26)

AND THE OTHER BPL TIPSTERS:

TIM LANE:
1. S Pendlebury
2. C Judd
3. G Ablett
My Sure Bet: A midfielder from a top-8 team to win.

ASHLEY BROWNE:
1. C Judd
2. A Goodes
3. S Pendlebury
My Sure Bet: Andrew Demetriou to pronounce perfectly 'Paul Puopolo'. 

THE SHARK:
1. C Judd
2. A Goodes
3. S Pendlebury
My Sure Bet: Ablett (at $1.01) to be leading Suns' votegetter. Well, you asked. 

NICK TEDESCHI:
1. S Pendlebury
2. C Judd
3. A Goodes
(Best roughie: Matthew Priddis)
My Sure Bet: Matthew Priddis to top West Coast votes at $2.00

JONATHAN HOWCROFT:
1. C Judd
2. S Pendlebury
3. M Murphy
(Best Roughie: Adam Goodes)
My Sure Bet:
A five-way multi on the leading vote getters from the following clubs:
Bulldogs - M Boyd
Suns - G Ablett
Hawks - S Mitchell
Demons - B Moloney
Eagles - D Cox 

CHARLES HAPPELL:
1. S Pendlebury
2. C Judd
3. A Goodes
My Sure Bet: A four-way multi - Ablett to be Suns' leading votewinner, into Brendan Fevola not being invited, into Ross Lyon not sitting at the St Kilda table, into a desperate starlet wearing a 'gown' on the red carpet that leaves very little to the imagination. All about $1.01 chances.

(COMING UP: Later this week, BPL will publish a club-by-club breakdown of the best chances.)