Geelong v Hawthorn (2nd Qualifying Final, Friday, 7.45pm, MCG)

A cracking game to kick off a cracking first week of finals. Geelong could not have been more impressive in smashing Collingwood by 16 goals last week, while a half-strength Hawks' side accounted for Gold Coast. We know Geelong won both of these encounters during the year - by 19 and five points, respectively - and we also know the Cats have not lost to Hawthorn since the 2008 Grand Final, a result that still rankles with the blue-and-white. But, still, there are nagging doubts ... Geelong tonight brought Mathew Stokes (soreness) and Tom Lonergan (quad) back into the team but were not able to consider star onballer Joel Corey, who has been sidelined by groin soreness in recent weeks. Interestingly, the grand old-stager Darren Milburn was dropped. The Hawks recalled all eight players rested last week: Luke Hodge, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli, Shaun Burgoyne, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis, Grant Birchall and Max Bailey, meaning eight members of Saturday's winning team had to make way including Xavier Ellis, Rick Ladson and Shane Savage. As if there wasn't plenty to play for anyway, the loser will understand they are likely to end up in Collingwood's side of the draw. All the evidence - and recent history - points to a Geelong win, but we think the Hawks have been building nicely for this finals campaign, winning eight in a row, and will be primed for huge effort. The forecast rain won't bother the Hawks too much. This will be an ultra physical affair and expect casualties, and maybe a report or two, from both sides. Four of the five margins since the 2009 GF have been single-digit results (the ‘blowout' being this season's 19 points), and we can't see this one being much different.

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 10 points
TAB Odds: Geelong $1.68, Hawthorn $2.10

Collingwood v West Coast (1st Qualifying Final, Saturday, 2.20pm, MCG) 

Not sure two teams entering a qualifying final have had such contrasting lead-in performances. Collingwood, as we know, lost by 96 points to Geelong; West Coast hammered Adelaide by 95 points - a 191-point differential. Still, we think that will count for nothing on Saturday afternoon. In fact, we're staggered at how quickly some people in the footy commentariat have jumped off the Pies, forgetting they were the reddest of red-hot premiership favourites only a week ago - before losing a match they had only a passing interest in. You might also recall these two teams met back in round 10, when the Pies won by 52 points. Still, we will concede the Maggies appear to have one or two injury concerns. Leon Davis has been recalled after missing last week with hamstring soreness as has fellow-backman Heath Shaw after serving his eight-week betting suspension. But, most significantly, skipper Nick Maxwell (broken thumb) will join that pair in defence after surprisingly being cleared to play. (Dale Thomas has to wait another game before he can return from his two-match ban). Travis Cloke (knee), Ben Johnson (knee) and Chris Tarrant (ankle) have all been picked despite pulling up sore after Friday night. The Eagles, by contrast, are a picture of good health. Daniel Kerr (back) and Will Schofield were named in the side, but Matt Rosa (knee) was unable to be considered. The anticipated wet weather over the weekend has to favour Collingwood, and the skill of their midfielders, and count against West Coast's much-vaunted height in the forward line and their two ruckmen, Cox and Naitanui. Surely that line-up will prove too top-heavy in the rain. The question is how much Collingwood's confidence and aura of invincibility have been damaged by the Geelong result. The Eagles have improved dramatically - and will stretch the premiers on a dry day. But the Magpies have been so good for so long, they'll want to hit back hard and make a statement after last week's aberration.

BPL Prediction: Collingwood by 38 points
TAB Odds: Collingwood $1.18, West Coast $4.50

St Kilda v Sydney (2nd Elimination Final, Saturday, 7.45pm, Etihad Stadium)

One match that won't be affected by the weather, as it will be played under Etihad's roof. These two teams met in Sydney three weeks ago, and the Swans won by 15 points (having had 15 more scoring shots) in what was a very disappointing result for the Saints. Shane Mumford and Adam Goodes dominated that game as a recovering Ben McEvoy struggled in the ruck and the whole St Kilda team was beaten at the stoppages. But that was one of St Kilda's few slip-ups in the past 10 weeks. And they've since thrashed North Melbourne and beaten Carlton. And, perhaps most importantly of all, this match is being played at Fortress Docklands. We're reliably informed the Saints haven't lost a Saturday night game at this ground in more than seven years. Everything is ticking over for them nicely now - except for the form of skipper Nick Riewoldt, who is playing with injury and without confidence and was next to anonymous last week. On the selection front, David Armitage has served his one-game suspension and was tonight rushed straight back in, replacing ruckman Michael Gardiner. For the Swans, Sam Reid and Lewis Roberts-Thompson were included at the expense of Nick Malceski and Lewis Jetta. Heath Grundy remains sidelined with illness. This game will not be pretty, we can safely say that, and it won't feature many goals. For these two teams are the undoubted masters of the lock-down game, in which opponents are choked into submission and given no room to move. As a result, both teams have a worrying inability to score freely; in fact, their season points-for totals were the lowest of all the top 13 teams on the ladder with the exception of Fremantle. The Swans have an unhealthy reliance on the brilliant Goodes; if the Saints can close him down, they'll be well on their way. St Kilda have a more even spread of talent through the midfield and we think that will carry the day (or night).

Prediction: St Kilda by 10 points
TAB Odds: St Kilda $1.33, Sydney $3.15

Carlton v Essendon (1st Elimination Final, Sunday, 2.40pm, MCG)

By Wednesday, this match already shaped as a sellout. Such is the passion generated by these two clubs whenever they meet, and especially in finals, that 90,000-plus can be expected on a sunny day. Alas, the forecast is for rain. The Blues come into the game on the back of two losses and a bye so haven't tasted victory since Round 21 - not an ideal preparation. And they've got the millstone to deal with of losing elimination finals in the past two years. They've also got injury concerns. The most pressing of these surrounds ruckman-forward Matthew Kreuzer who was left out of the team tonight with his foot injury. Jarrad Waite was not named despite a late bid for inclusion. The Blues brought five players into their squad including Michael Jamison (knee), Bret Thornton and Andrew Carrazzo, who suffered mild whiplash in a traffic collision on Friday. But the good news is .... the weather might prove a Godsend. All the talk about the Blues being short in defence - and attack, for that matter - might count for nothing if the slippery ball is on the ground all day. That will bring those little wizards, Betts, Garlett, Yarran, Walker and the like into their own. Shortness will become an asset. The Bombers, who've done enormously well under James Hird to make the finals after just one September appearance in the last six years, have proved an unpredictable outfit. When they're on, they move the ball fast, are exciting and can match it with anyone. But when they're not, well they can be very scrappy and ordinary indeed. We saw that in round 18, when Carlton kicked 24 goals and thumped the Bombers by 74 points (Betts kicking eight, Walker taking that absolute screamer and Judd getting the mandatory three votes.) The Dons have been strengthened by the return of defender Dustin Fletcher (ankle) and midfielder Heath Hocking (suspension), who missed the Round-23 win over Port Adelaide. (They had a bye last week.) It's hard to ignore Carlton's superior form line this year - and we think if it is, in fact, a wet day, then the Blues' superior skills will deliver a win. If it's dry and sunny, well, we'd be not quite as confident.

Prediction. Carlton by 15 points
TAB Odds: Carlton $1.33, Essendon $3.15