HAWTHORN v SYDNEY (2nd Semi Final, Friday, 7:45pm, MCG)

The big talking point this week has, of course, been Buddy Franklin's knee, and whether the Coleman Medallist will be able to take his place in Hawthorn's team on Friday night. We think Hawk fans should spare themselves the anguish and banish all thoughts of a Buddy appearance: he might be picked in the team but he's next to no chance of playing. That should tilt the scales Sydney's way in this semi-final (although it should be noted the Hawks have actually scored more freely in their three games without Franklin this season, than they have with him at full-forward.) With Jarryd Roughhead missing from the Hawks forward line as well, and Cyril Rioli surprisingly quiet last week, coach Alistair Clarkson will somehow have to rejig his forward set-up to conjure a winning score. That will involve David Hale, maybe Jordan Lisle and perhaps Luke Hodge spending some time near the goals, alongside Rioli. We know the Hawks were able to get past the Swans by seven goals in Round 9, and that was at the SCG. The home side kicked just four goals after quarter-time that day in one of their more forgettable performances. At the other end, Franklin was masterful, kicking six, while Roughhead was also useful. Sydney was brilliant in its elimination final last week, throttling St Kilda into submission by winning the clearances and the contested ball - and generally revelling in the clinches. Few people picked that result, the Swans once again proving how under-rated and under-appreciated they are. Adam Goodes, who will play his 300^th game this week, is in peak form, while ruckman Shane Mumford has been dominating every opponent he lines up against. (Dan Hannebery and Gary Rohan trained this week but are unlikely starters.) The temptation here is to go with the Swans but it's very rare for top-four teams (Hawthorn) to go out in straight sets, and we were heartened by reports that Hawthorn's senior players at a team meeting this week shouldered the blame for the poor performance against Geelong and admitted to letting the side down. They've pledged to be much, much better this week. That sways it for us. We're loathe to underestimate the Swannies again, but we reckon a more spirited Hawthorn effort will carry the day. Try the Hawks by 1-19 points at $4.25.

HEAD TO HEAD: Hawthorn 81 wins, Sydney 65 wins, two draws
LAST TIME: Hawthorn 15.16 (106) d Sydney 8.12 (60), Rd 9, 2011 at SCG.
FORM: Hawthorn: WWWWL         Sydney: LWWWW
STATS STORY: This game pits two very different styles against each other: basically the best outside team (Hawthorn) versus the best inside team (Sydney). Hawthorn's average of 250 uncontested possessions a game is the highest in the league. Sydney's average of 176, by contrast, is easily the lowest. The Swans share, with Collingwood, the highest average figure for the number of contested possessions, with 156. Hawthorn's 143 is about average.
TAB SPORTSBET ODDS: Hawthorn $1.45, Sydney $2.65
BPL TIP: Hawthorn by 18 points

WEST COAST v CARLTON (1st Semi Final, Saturday, 5:50pm, Patersons Stadium)

Carlton's mission to win in Perth became distinctly more difficult this week when Matthew Kreuzer (foot) and Bryce Gibbs (AC joint) were ruled out. Kreuzer's absence didn't affect the Blues' performance against Essendon last week, but it will leave them short against West Coast's Land of the Giants outfit. And Gibbs' dash from half-back - and precision kicking - will also be missed. Still, West Coast have one or two problems of their own - and they centre around the midfield combo of Dean Cox (back spasms) and Daniel Kerr. Coach John Worsfold is confident both will be available and if that's the case, Carlton is facing close to a full-strength Eagles unit. West Coast was too good for the Blues when the teams met at Etihad Stadium back in round 14, winning by six goals. Blues' captain Chris Judd was quiet that day as Scott Selwood, then Kerr, took turns in tagging him. But Carlton coach Brett Ratten was quick to point out that full-back Michael Jamison had to be subbed off early in that match with a knee injury during and Mitch Robinson, Jeremy Laidler and Nick Duigan were unavailable. Still, Judd's form in recent weeks - by his own admission - has been less than stellar, leading to speculation he is worn out after a long and demanding season. West Coast's form at Patersons Stadium this year has been almost faultless, racking up an 11-1 win-loss record, the only blemish coming in round 3 when Sydney knocked them off by 13 points. The Blues will somehow have to cover the Eagles' array of talls - Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui in the ruck and Josh Kennedy, Quinten Lynch and Jack Darling inside forward 50. Ratten is likely to bolster his tall division with ruckman-forward Shaun Hampson who kicking six goals in the VFL last weekend. But we can't see West Coast being beaten here. The eight or nine players involved in their first final last week, such as Luke Shuey and Darling, will be much better for the run. They don't lose at home often. Key Blues such as Judd look tired. After an even first half, this could turn into a rout. Try the Eagles by more than 39.5 points at $4.10.

HEAD TO HEAD: West Coast 17 wins, Carlton 19 wins, no draws
LAST TIME: West Coast 15.13 (103) d Carlton 10.7 (67), Rd 14, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
FORM: West Coast: WWWWL          Carlton: WLBLW
STATS STORY: Despite the dominance of their ruckmen, West Coast were flogged in the clearances by Collingwood last week. The Eagles won the hit-outs 50 to 29, but the Pies won the clearances 53 to 31. So the Eagles midfielders will have to sharpen up their work at stoppages and stop Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson, Andrew Carazzo and co from sharking Cox and Naitanui's tap-outs. The notable feature of Carlton's effort against Essendon was the efficiency of its forward line: the Blues scored from 71 per cent of its inside-50 entries, the highest such figure of the season, and included three coast-to-coast goals after kick-ins.
TAB SPORTSBET ODDS: West Coast $1.55, Carlton $2.35
BPL TIP: West Coast by 43 points.