Written on Monday, 19 September 2011 17:11
On face value, West Coast's meteoric leap from wooden spooners to Preliminary Finalists in one season may seem surprising. However, I believe that the leap is not the shocking part of the story. Rather, it was last year's fall.
With significant depth, a good mix of youth and experience, and proven talent in the coaches box, the Eagles have "top four team" written all over them. Their success this year is logical.
Yet virtually the same team took to the field in 2010 and bombed. What happened?
Importantly - although the Eagles themselves would be loathe to place too much importance on it - they were cut down by injury. Captain Darren Glass, Daniel Kerr, Adam Selwood, Mark Nicoski, Shannon Hurn, and Chris Masten all spent much of last year in the medical room.
Additionally, Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui and Josh Kennedy played through injury for most of the season. Luke Shuey also missed a large chunk of the year, and we now know just how good he is.
All 10 of those players played in the Eagles' semi-final win, and most had a big impact. That's just about half the team. It also comprises five of the ten players who have played 100 or more games (Hurn has 97), and five of the seven members of the leadership group.
But there must be more to it than that. After all, the Eagles had their fair share of serious, or freakish, injuries this year. Reigning leading goalkicker Mark LeCras suffered a major groin injury early on, and Kennedy injured both his eyes in separate incidents in the second half of the season, to name two examples.
A significant area in which West Coast let themselves down in 2010 was in the draft. The Eagles' three national draft selections that year - Brad Sheppard, Gerrick Weedon, and Koby Stevens - played just 19 games between them, to no major impact. Likewise, none of their other selections, perhaps Andrew Strijk excepted, has been revelatory.
In 2011, the Eagles' first two picks, Andrew Gaff and Jack Darling, have played major roles in getting the team back on track. Darling adds depth to the forwardline as a third tall, while Gaff's run across midfield reminds more than a few people of a young Chris Judd. He was one of only ten to poll in this year's Rising Star count.
A third factor in last year's failure was their inability to exploit their famous home-ground advantage. They won two games out of 12 at home in 2010, but resurrected the House of Pain for 12 wins out of 13 games this year.
This won't help them from the Preliminary Finals on, but it helped get them there.
However, even if West Coast were still a good, if unlucky, team last year, what chance do they have of defeating Geelong and reaching their first Grand Final for half a decade?
One thing they can take into the game is their Round 16 victory over the Cats. Their defence held up very well that night, forcing a lot of Geelong's goals to come from the midfield. Further, Brad Ottens - in sensational form after a best-on-ground Qualifying Final - was subdued by the Cox-Naitanui combination.
However, Geelong was a little off the boil that night, making several errors by foot, particularly when entering their attacking 50. The Eagles will have to assume the Cats won't allow that to happen in such an important game.
Geelong also has the luxury of having had a week's break. The Eagles, by contrast, played out a fairly bruising match against Carlton. That should come into play in the fourth quarter on Saturday night. Even if the Eagles lead in the last quarter, it's tough to see them holding off their fresher opponents.
Yes, the spoon-to-flag dream is unlikely, but the fact that the Coasters are still alive should not come as any great shock.
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