COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN (Preliminary Final, Friday, 7:45pm, MCG)

Collingwood is a deserved favourite in this match but there are a few issues which would be worrying Mick Malthouse and co in the coaches box. They've lost Mark Neeld, their midfield coach, after he was taken on as Melbourne's senior coach last week, so that has to disrupt their preparations to some extent. Dale Thomas has not played for three weeks since his suspension and Ben Reid has also spent several weeks on the sidelines with a groin strain. And that could be an issue if the All-Australian CHB has been earmarked to play on Buddy Franklin. (The Hawks spearhead has been in the wars a bit himself this week, with reports of a gastro complaint, and only trained briefly for the first time on Wednesday.) For all that, the Pies have had a week's rest - and that has to be beneficial for the likes of Darren Jolly, Nick Maxwell, Reid and Leon Davis - and they beat the Hawks comfortably when they met three months ago. They went into that game having lost five of the previous six to the Hawks but jumped out of the blocks to lead by four goals at quarter time, and were never headed. (Reid was fantastic that day and helped keep Franklin to just one major, highlighting his importance to their defence). For the Pies, Heath Shaw and Nick Maxwell showed great signs in their return to the game a fortnight ago after long layoffs. The midfield is purring along, but will hoping Thomas comes back in some sort of form. The only concern surrounds key forwards Travis Cloke and Jason Dawes who have both been below their best in recent weeks. We don't think this will be a cakewalk for the premiers by any means. The Hawks are on a bit of a roll after last week and will give this all they've got. They'll be unsociable and try to get in Collingwood's face. We think they can give this match a huge shake, but might in the end not quite have the class through the midfield to match it with the best. 

BPL TIP: Collingwood by eight points
TAB SPORTSBET ODDS: Collingwood $1.28, Hawthorn $3.50
HEAD TO HEAD: Collingwood 95 wins, Hawthorn 56 wins, no draws
LAST TIME: Collingwood 15.16 (106) d Hawthorn 9.11 (65), Rd15, 2011 at the MCG
FORM: Collingwood: WWWLW          Hawthorn: WWWLW
STATS STORY: Hawthorn is good at pumping the ball inside its forward 50 against mediocre teams, but not so good when it's up against the best. The Hawks have an average of 14 more inside-50s against all teams this year - but an average of nine fewer inside 50s against the other top-liners: Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast. They had 15 fewer inside 50s against Collingwood in round 15 - and 18 fewer inside 50s against Geelong in the qualifying final - pointing to a midfield that might go missing in the big ones. So Messrs Mitchell, Hodge, Sewell, Lewis, Bateman etc, you're on notice!

GEELONG v WEST COAST (Preliminary Final, Saturday, 2.20pm, MCG)

A rested Geelong take on a West Coast side banged up and bruised after their thrilling win over Carlton last Saturday. The week off will have been a godsend for the likes of Brad Ottens, Matthew Scarlett, Cameron Ling, Joel Corey and Geelong's other ageing stars. They've been cleverly nursed through the season by Chris Scott and should be raring to go on Saturday. The Cats lost Daniel Menzel to a serious knee injury in the qualifying final, but hope to be able to replace him with Corey, who's been battling a groin strain. As a sidelight, the match features Cats' gun Joel Selwood against his two brothers, Adam and Scott, at West Coast for one of the rare times that three brothers have taken the field in a final. Not to put too fine a point on it, this match will be won and lost in the centre square, where Ottens and Trent West face off against Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui. The Geelong pair will have their work cut out because the two Eagles form the best ruck partnership in the league. If West Coast's midfield of Kerr, Priddis, Rosa and co get their hands on the ball first, then the Cats' defence will be under real pressure. A fortnight ago, Naitanui and Cox won the hitouts against Collingwood, 50-29, but the Pies' midfield were clever enough to shark the ball and win the clearances, 53-31. Geelong's onballers will need to be similarly switched on. If they're not, and the Eagles tall forward line gets plenty of opportunities, an upset is on the cards. One other area of concern for Geelong is the strength and savvy of captain Darren Glass and Eric McKenzie in the Eagles' key defensive posts, meaning James Podsiadly and Tom Hawkins can expect a tough time of it. Still, the Cats have been here before. They know what's required, they're well rested and their experience and poise should hold sway. And luckily the weather is expected to be mild - 18 degrees - meaning the team's veterans won't flag in the heat.

BPL TIP: Geelong by 30 points
TAB SPORTSBET ODDS: Geelong $1.20, West Coast $4.25
HEAD TO HEAD: Geelong 20 wins, West Coast 22 wins, one draw
LAST TIME: West Coast 14.12 (96) d Geelong 13.10 (88), Rd 16, 2011 at Patersons Stadium
FORM: Geelong: BLWWB            West Coast: WWWLW
STATS STORY: Part of Geelong's success has been to get a smart player - a Scarlett or Enright or Bartel - stationed a kick behind play, take a mark and then begin the Cats' attacking wave towards goal. It is no surprise to learn then that Geelong has become the team that racks up the most marks from opposition kicks.  But in their most recent match against West Coast, in Rd 16, the Eagles managed to turn the tables on the Cats. They took 21 marks from Geelong kicks during their eight-point victory at Patersons Stadium. Geelong, by contrast, had only nine kicks from opposition kicks that night.