With or without Steve Johnson, Geelong should win the Grand Final. They're healthier - with the exception of Steve Johnson - and their lead-in form has been almost faultless. So says Wayne Carey in his BPL Grand Final preview.

"The Cats are flying right now; they're running on top of the ground,'' he said.

"I think Brad Ottens would be of concern to the Magpies at the moment, given how well he plays in finals and given that Darren Jolly is not travelling that well. And the fact that Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly were clunking their marks against West Coast last week - Collingwood wouldn't have wanted to see that either. 

"For those reasons, I'm leaning toward the Cats - by about three goals - but it'll be a great, old-fashioned contest and certainly nothing like the round 24 game when the Cats gave them a good old touch-up.''

Carey, the North Melbourne premiership captain in 1996 and 1999, said Collingwood had shown with its stunning comeback win against Hawthorn on Friday that there was great spirit and belief in the side - and everyone was pulling in the one direction and playing for Mick Malthouse in his farewell season.

For the Pies to win, Carey said their much-vaunted defence needed to be at its best, and shut down Hawkins, Podsiadly, Varcoe and co. ''Their ability to defend so well is their strength,'' he said. "They're very hard-nosed down there and stingey and they'll be at their prickly best on Saturday, so I'm not saying it will be easy for Geelong. They'll have to work very hard to win.''

The seven-time All-Australian said he expected all three injured players - Johnson, Jolly and Ben Reid - to take their place on Saturday, although it was clear they'd all be below peak fitness.

That issue only highlighted the selflessness of long-serving Collingwood full-back Simon Prestigiacomo who last year pulled out on the morning of the grand final because he felt he wasn't 100% fit and might damage the team's chances if he played.

"What Presti did last year was almost unheard of, and only now is he really getting the credit he deserves,'' Carey said. ''He gave up a premiership basically for the benefit of the side.

"There are alot - alot - of players who've gone into a grand final at 50% fitness for their own selfish reasons. But we don't 

Carey also recalls his time as assistant coach at Collingwood in 2006, and says he came to greatly respect Malthouse not just for his coaching skills but his skills in dealing with his players.

The dual  premiership captain also assesses the two preliminary finals, and reckons the painful manner of Hawthorn's defeat - leading at the first three changes only to get pipped on the line - will stick in their craw all over summer.

The BPL interview was filmed at lunchtime on Monday. So who did the Oracle of Arden St think would win the Brownlow Medal being held later that evening? ''Chris Judd was about 10/1 last year and Dane Swan was red-hot favourite, and Judd ended up winning," Carey says. ''The situation's reversed this year: Swan's 10 or 12/1 and Judd's the favourite, and I think Swan will win it - and Judd will become yet another favourite who's beaten."  

Click here to watch the Wayne Carey Vidcast in full  ....