COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG (Grand Final, Saturday, 2:30pm, MCG)

So finally we arrive at our destination, the last match of the 2011 season and what a mouth-watering proposition awaits us - Collingwood v Geelong. It is the Grand Final that many had been hoping for (once their teams had been knocked out, of course) and one which should do the big stage justice. The two teams have won the past two flags and suffered only five losses between them all season. In 2011, Collingwood was statistically No.1 in defence and attack, while Geelong was ranked No.2 in both. The Magpies have been premiership favourites all season and even as late as last Sunday were listed at $1.80. But then the flow of money shifted and Geelong - on the back of a brilliant final month (against the Pies' so-so form) - have been backed into favouritism. Now they're $1.80 and the Pies have eased out to $2.00. It will be a fascinating contest on a number of fronts, not least of them being the impact of Mick Malthouse's last game in charge at Collingwood after a career that's spanned 28 seasons. At the other end of the scale, Chris Scott will coach in a Grand Final in his debut campaign. Here are the cases for and against both sides:

The case for Collingwood (and against Geelong):
1. The Pies have been the dominant team for 18 months - losing only three times in that period - and know how to get the job done. Their final quarters have been a revelation.
2. They have the best defence in the league, and the match-time given to Heath Shaw and Nick Maxwell in the past three weeks means their backline unit is almost back to its best.
3. The Malthouse Factor will be a source of motivation, the long-serving coach leading the Pies for the last time. It is clear the players respond to Malthouse and want to perform for him.
4. Ignore the Round 24 result (when Geelong won by 96 points). Collingwood had nothing to play for (top spot was sewn up) and was without three of its key players: Maxwell, Shaw and Dale Thomas.
5. More experience in the coaches box: Malthouse is coaching in his eighth Grand Final; Chris Scott in his first.
6. Geelong's key forwards, Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly, were both good last week against West Coast but can be flakey and erratic. If they both turn in shockers, and Johnson doesn't play, the Cats might struggle up forward.

The case for Geelong (and against Collingwood):
1. The Cats' form has been faultless in the past month, since losing to Sydney at home in Round 23.
2. Save for Steve Johnson, they pretty much have a full squad to pick from and all (with the exception of the underdone Joel Corey) are in good nick. (Even if Johnson does miss, he hasn't been overly dominant against the Pies anyway, kicking six goals in the past four games.)
3. Chris Scott and the Geelong fitness staff have cleverly rotated the players through the side this year, giving each of them a break, meaning they're all in fine fettle at the business end of the year.
4. There are question marks over the fitness of Pies' No.1 ruckman Darren Jolly and No.1 key defender Ben Reid, although both trained lightly on Wednesday. And the Cats' No.1 ruckman Brad Ottens is a noted big-game performer (save for the 2008 GF). If Reid doesn't play, the Woods are dangerously short in defence and his likely replacement Tyson Goldsack would be conceding height and bulk to Hawkins. 
5. The Pies' form has tapered off over the past month when they've been well beaten by Geelong, and won finals narrowly over West Coast and Hawthorn.
6. Their two defeats this season were to Geelong. In those two games, the Cats had 64 scoring shots in total to Collingwood's 30 - a huge disparity.

So, is the picture as clear as mud now?

For what it's worth, we at BPL think rock-solid defence wins Grand Finals. We think Collingwood's tough hitouts in its two finals will stand them in good stead when the heat's applied on Saturday. We think their most recent GF experience will be invaluable. We think Nick Maxwell might be the best captain in the AFL - not the best player, but the best leader. We also think The Malthouse Factor will come into play. So, after examining the tea leaves, peering into our crystal ball and picking over the chicken entrails, we're going for the Pies - by under two goals.

HEAD TO HEAD: Collingwood 126 wins, Geelong 94 wins, one draw
MEETINGS IN 2011:
Round 8 - Geelong 8.17 (65) d Collingwood 9.8 (62) at the MCG
Round 24 - Geelong 22.17 (149) d Collingwood 8.5 (53) at the MCG
FORM: Collingwood: WLWBW             Geelong: LWWBW
STATS STORY:
1. Geelong has revamped its gameplan and is kicking long more often than at any stage in the past five seasons. The most notable change came in round 24 when the Cats had 67 effective long kicks in their huge win over Collingwood. That was a season high for any team. They then had 76 effective long kicks in the qualifying final against Hawthorn and 75 in the preliminary final against West Coast - huge numbers compared to earlier in the season. So it's clear the emphasis has changed dramatically from handballing (a Mark Thompson hallmark) to kicking long.
2. Whereas Geelong's kick to handball ratio was about 1:1 last season, in recent weeks it has risen to about 1.7:1. Early in the season, Geelong was ranked sixth for long kicking. Over the past month it's been No.1.
3. In 2010, Collingwood kept the ball in its forward half for longer than its opponents in every match. This year it lost the ball-in-forward-half count in three games. And in the Pies' last three games - against Geelong, West Coast and Hawthorn, the other top-four teams - it has lost the ball-in-forward-half count each time. That begs the question: Is the Pies' forward press being picked apart?
4. In their two meetings this season, the Cats have suffocated the usually free-flowing Magpies, winning the inside 50 count by 62-42 in Round 8 and 68-35 in Round 24. It doesn't matter how efficient your forward line is, those are deeply worrying sets of figures for the Magpie brains trust.
(- Stats compiled with the help of afl.com.au.)
TAB SPORTSBET ODDS: Collingwood $2.00, Geelong $1.80
BPL TIP: Collingwood by 10 points