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Premiership a race in seven - or more

Charles Happell

Charles Happell

Written on Sunday, 14 March 2010 13:49

The bookies have been swamped by money for the Western Bulldogs in the past fortnight, and especially since the Dogs' drought-breaking NAB Cup win over St Kilda on Saturday night, but the truth - if you look beyond that heartwarming story - is the AFL premiership race is the most open it has been in recent memory. Seven teams are given a strong chance of contending and four or five others are listed in the Dangerous Floater category.

The AFL's policies of equalisation - or socialism as they're referred to in some quarters - are now bearing fruit. The salary cap, national draft, and redistribution of wealth to the smaller clubs from blockbuster matches - elements which are missing from elite competitions such as the English Premier League where the same four clubs invariably divide up the major spoils - have laid a platform for the league's much sought-after ''level playing field'' and a genuinely intriguing 2010 season.

Perhaps it's a reflection of the dire summer of cricket we've just endured but I can't recall an AFL season that has been so widely anticipated, and debated.

Part of the excitement stems from a more obvious source: seven or eight clubs' supporters reckon they've got a decent chance at finally winning one of those damn premiership cups. And for the fans of the Bulldogs (last flag: 1954), St Kilda (1966) and Collingwood (1990), that is cause for much hype and expectation. Keep the lid on it? You've got to be kidding.

The Bulldogs' opening premiership price was $7 at TAB Sportsbet and other bookmakers during the pre-season, but they have been reeled in to $5 (with a bullet) and the third line of betting in the past 24 hours. The bookies essentially saw the NAB Cup Grand Final as a contest between teams No.1 and No.3, and the favourite - St Kilda - was comfortably beaten. Therefore, the rush of money for the Dogs today.

''Sixteen per cent of every dollar placed on the AFL Premiership during the NAB Cup has been for the Bulldogs,'' the TAB's Glenn Munsie said tonight. ''There's been huge support for them.''

But, if we put aside for a moment the romance of the Doggies' feelgood win - their first title of any description since the 1970 night series pennant - we can see from the bookies' markets just how much competition they will have for the cup that really matters, in September.

St Kilda is still favourite despite Saturday's defeat, when they were missing premier onballer Lenny Hayes and lost Sam Fisher early with an ankle injury. Reigning premiers, and the dominant team for four seasons, Geelong is second favourite and not going to relinquish its title without a fight. Then there's a resurgent Hawthorn, an Adelaide side that's almost unbeatable at home, Collingwood and the usual number of people spruiking their chances, and a Brisbane outfit boasting a new, Fevola-led forward line.

What to make of all that? It's enough to have you calling for the blindfold and dartboard.

''I've never known such even support for seven teams before a season, it's almost unheard of,'' said Munsie. ''Traditionally, the markets are dominated by the grand finalists of the previous year and one or two other teams, such as a Collingwood or an Essendon. Not this year.''

As of Sunday night, the TAB Sportsbet odds were:

$4      St Kilda

$4.50 Geelong

$5      Western Bulldogs

$8     Hawthorn

$10   Adelaide

$11   Collingwood

$13   Brisbane

Then there is daylight to the Dangerous Floater group of Carlton, Sydney, Essendon, Port Adelaide and West Coast.

The Bulldogs have taken one important step already this season, but clearly a long march awaits.
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