You are here AFL Saving the best till last

Saving the best till last

Ashley Browne

Ashley Browne

Written on Wednesday, 31 March 2010 12:45

BRISBANE v CARLTON, GABBA, THURSDAY 7.30PM

Power forwards have long been Carlton's achilles heel and the Lions have them in abundance. In last year's elimination final between these two clubs, it was five goals to Daniel Bradshaw and four to Jonathan Brown that proved the difference in an otherwise tight encounter that the Lions came back from the dead to win. Bradshaw might now be gone but the even more talented Brendan Fevola takes his place, as the Blues know all too well. It is hard to see which Carlton defender will be able to keep their former party boy teammate in check and if they do, then who will stop Brown?

Carlton's small forwards helped them put together a winning score last week against Richmond, but the trip to the Gabba represents a significant step up in class. The midfield battles appear to be really even but the Blues will need to win the clearance battle in order to generate enough quality ball to generate a winning score. This is the week they'll really miss suspended skipper Chris Judd.

They'd also want to be in front, and considerably so at three-quarter-time, to be confident of winning because the Lions are really good at running out games, as evidenced in last year's final and again last week against West Coast.

BRISBANE BY 19

COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE, MCG, SATURDAY, 2.10PM

It must be depressing to support Melbourne. One week of dreadful footy, and your team is already at $8.50 to win the following match. But what else can you expect from a clash that feartures the most exciting team of the opening round against the most disappointing.

There was so much to like about Collingwood's win over premiership favourites the Western Bulldogs. The Pies displayed the lot - pace, skill, strength and resilience - in a performance that stamped them as a genuine threat for the flag.

The Pies were more direct than last year and it was the small forwards who did the job for the Pies - Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Alan Didak - and the Demons would not appear to have genuine match-ups for any of them.

Melbourne was lamentable against Hawthorn and were made to pay for a succession of skill errors that bordered on the laughable. Draft picks Tom Scully and Jack Trengove made fine debuts and were far from the worst for their teams but in the likely event that things again turn grim for the Demons on Saturday, they could do far worse than look to the example of Brad Green who was crunched and stretchered from the ground early on Saturday, only to return in the second half and kick a couple of goals.

If the rest of the Demons put their heads over the ball like Green, this may not be a total blow out.

COLLINGWOOD BY 57

ST KILDA v NORTH MELBOURNE, ETIHAD STADIUM SATURDAY, 7.10PM

After spotting Port Adelaide a 50-point lead last Sunday, North whittled the margin back to under three goals by the final siren, with new coach Brad Scott saying that the comeback started once the team started implementing the gameplan he installed over the summer.

Perhaps. But how about the argument that it was a wet day and like several winners in round one, the team that led comfortably at half-time (see Carlton and Hawthorn) used the second half more as an exercise in energy conservation for the long season ahead.

Things don't get any easier for the Kangaroos. The Saints showed a fair bit of grit to pull out a win against the Swans in Sydney and they'll relish the return to their favoured deck at Etihad. The suspended Justin Koschitzke won't play, but Nick Riewoldt is so used to be the main man up forward that his flaky sidekick will hardly be missed.

North surprised St Kilda with an upset win in round 21 last year, so the $5.75 on offer for a North win is juicy. But a recipe for success for the Saints last year was a barnstorming start to the season and we expect that their edge in talent and experience will get the job done this time.

ST KILDA BY 35

WEST COAST v PORT ADELAIDE, SUBIACO, SATURDAY 5.40PM

Authorities at the Gabba are still trying to find the hole the Eagles fell into at three-quarter time last Saturday. After three quarters of terrific football, West Coast disappeared in the final term to hand the Lions an easy win that nobody saw coming.

The glare on the face of coach John Worsfold as it all transpired suggested that a long and uncomfortable plane trip home faced the Eagles and that a tough week was in store for a team that many believe to be this year's bolter.

The Eagles would want to rebound hard. They are a team that doesn't win much on the road, so every home game is of critical importance. We're placing great store in their talented forward line and the belief (or is it hope?) that the long road trip will unsettle the youngish Port Adelaide side.

Port looks tougher than last year and more defensively aware, a trait that is attributed to new assistant coach Dean Laidley. Those who don't buy into West Coast as this year's bolter believe the boys from the Port could sneak a berth in the finals, and there will be a lot more believers if they can get a win here. They could, but the Eagles deserve another chance.

WEST COAST BY 12

ADELAIDE v SYDNEY, AAMI STADIUM, SUNDAY, 12.40PM

Second round, second chance. That's the mantra here as two opening round losers attempt to get their season on track.

The Crows were really the more disappointing side last week, losing to Fremantle by 56 points in a loss that flew under the radar because of the late Sunday timeslot. The Crows were missing a few, but the lack of intensity was a real worry and an issue that coach Neil Craig will look to address this week.

If they don't bring it this week, then the Crows are in for more early-season pain because Sydney is always ready for a contest. The Swans are a bit faster this year and appear better suited to the larger AAMI Stadium than they have for some time, but they'll need to find someone to kick a few goals. Will it be Daniel Bradshaw? Perhaps, but the former Lion looked badly short of a gallop on the weekend and will need to do a bit more.

Adelaide was a top four pick for many only a week ago and is probably deserving of another show of faith this week. But they turn quickly in South Australia and the pressure will magnify if the Crows lose again.

ADELAIDE BY 15

ESSENDON v FREMANTLE, ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY, 2PM

We're not buying Fremantle. Not a for a moment. Never mind the way the Dockers carved up the talented Adelaide at Subiaco last Sunday, we've been burned by the Purple Haze one time too many.

And the punters agree, having installed Essendon at a solid $1.40 favourite to win.

Still, the Bombers would want to find a Plan B if they are to do anything much this year. Essendon fans are still perplexed at how their side could do nothing to stem the tide once Geelong went on an unbroken nine-goal rampage last Friday that turned a four-goal deficit to a five-goal lead. Essendon looks great when it is up and about with that free-wheeling brand of attacking footy, but is totally incapable of putting on the brakes when the opposition gets a run-on.

It is a significant chink in Essendon's armour, but in its favour on Sunday is a home track, home crowd and an opponent that rarely turns it on for two weeks in a row and almost never away from Perth.

ESSENDON BY 21

RICHMOND v WESTERN BULLDOGS, MCG, SUNDAY, 4.40PM

The result was a dispiriting six-goal loss to Collingwood, but you have to think the result might be a blessing in disguise for the Bulldogs, after such a splendid off-season. What better reminder of how hard the Bulldogs will need to work to be in contention at the pointy end of the season.

They're fortunate to be coming up against Richmond, arguably the worst team in the competition. The gravity of the rebuilding job facing new coach Damien Hardwick was evident within 15 minutes of the season opener against Carlton, by which time his team was five goals down.

The Tigers fought back for a time and that's how it is going to be for much of the season - a few patches of good footy sandwiched by plenty of pain. And the Bulldogs, with a mean defence, pace, skill and hardness through the midfield and plenty of scoring options, are primed to inflict pain on the Tigers on Sunday as they get their season back on track.

The wins will come for Richmond. Just not this week.

WESTERN BULLDOGS BY 51

HAWTHORN v GEELONG, MCG, MONDAY, 2.10PM

The Cats have ridden roughshod over much of the AFL for the last three years, but not so much the Hawks, which is why the AFL appears to have saved the best match till last on this elongated weekend of footy.

The depleted Hawks did as they wished against Melbourne last week, but with Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman and probably Cyril Rioli to return, will field a quality unit against the Cats, who laboured for a time against Essendon, before swinging into gear and looking very much their usual imposing selves.

Geelong has more depth through their midfield - the Hawks are still missing Brad Sewell and Shaun Burgoyne - and this gives it an important edge. But the Geelong defence faces a stern test in curbing Franklin and Jarryd Roughead and if one or both cut loose, the Hawks could be on their way.

You'd better believe there is plenty of feeling here. The Hawks were pitiful in their flag defence last year and believe a win over Geelong will serve notice that they're back on track in 2010. The Cats know that if they can keep the Hawks at bay then there aren't too many other teams with the ability to beat them.

With more of their better players up and about, the Cats should win this time and keep that edge over the Hawks. But not by much.

GEELONG BY 7

HAVE YOUR SAY. Agree or disagree? Love or hate? Let us know what you think of this article by leaving a comment below and taking part in Australia's best independent sporting debate.
blog comments powered by Disqus

Rate this article

(0 votes)

Latest articles from Ashley Browne

  • At these Olympics, silence is golden Wednesday, 02 May 2012 20:46

    ASHLEY BROWNE wants the IOC to show some leadership and stand up to Saudi Arabia…

  • Top tennis too late for some Monday, 30 January 2012 08:56

    ASHLEY BROWNE was enthralled by the Australian Open men's final as were 2.2 miliion other…

  • Idiotic idea of the week Saturday, 22 October 2011 13:01

    The suggestion that the English Premier League scrap promotion and relegation is the most stupid…


@BackPageLead

BackPageLead Daily News Feed