Written on Tuesday, 13 July 2010 18:15
'Hansie Punter' likes betting on cricket. And has had some success at it. He will provide occasional in-match betting advice to BPL throughout the series.
The two-Test series between Australia and Pakistan starts tonight at Lords. That's right, no-one wants to play in Pakistan (including the Pakistanis themselves), so they are playing home series wherever they can rather than cancelling them.
For now, this means England, although in the future they will probably end up playing in the Emirates, just a quick four-hour jaunt from Islamabad.
In-play punters always love Pakistan, because you never know what might happen, which leads to wild fluctuations in the market. This series should be interesting because the "home" side's swing bowlers will be strengthened by Australia's weakness in that area, and will be able to use English conditions to their advantage.
The Aussies say they have an edge in depth over Pakistan, but this is more in batting than bowling, where Johnson will come in at 9. Hilfenhaus is only just coming back into Test cricket, and Smith is an unknown at this level, and doesn't yet have the experience to exert pressure at his end. The Pakistanis may well attack him hard so as to limit Ponting's bowling options, and force him to use part-timers. As usual, Pakistan's brittle batting is its weakness, but watch for batting collapses from both teams in this Test.
Current TAB Sportsbet market (Tuesday, 6pm):
Pakistan: $7.20
Australia: $1.90
Draw: $2.40
You might want to back Pakistan before the start, with a view to laying off some time during the Test, although if it bats first and loses a few wickets, it may quickly blow out to $25 or much higher.
Laying the draw early in the match is also a good strategy, especially if there's a spot of poor weather around, and also if the opening pair get off to a reasonable start in the first hour of the match.
Watch for the odds of a draw drop below around $2.10 on the first day. Stay away from Australia at this level unless it bats first, has a collapse, and blow out to $4 or more.
Watch for updates during the match ...
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